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Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

TOL NYSE Operative Builders DE CIK: 0000794170
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 17, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-01-31
SELL
70% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 TOL Key Takeaways

Revenue: $2.1B
Net Margin: 9.8%
Free Cash Flow: $-11.6M
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 0.00x
EPS: $2.19
AI Rating: SELL with 70% confidence
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) receives a SELL rating with 70% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $2.1B, net profit margin of 9.8%, and return on equity (ROE) of 2.5%, Toll Brothers, Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Market sector. Below is our complete TOL stock analysis for 2026.

Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) a Good Investment?

Claude

Toll Brothers exhibits fundamental deterioration despite modest revenue growth, with net income declining 14.3% YoY and free cash flow sharply negative at -$11.6M, indicating potential working capital stress or earnings quality concerns. The severe disconnect between reported operating income ($219.1M) and operating cash flow ($7.3M) combined with extremely poor capital efficiency (ROE 2.5%, ROA 1.5%) suggests operational headwinds that the income statement is masking.

Why Buy Toll Brothers, Inc. Stock? TOL Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Solid stockholders' equity base of $8.4B providing financial cushion
  • + Reasonable cash position of $1.2B available for operations or opportunistic investments
  • + Gross and operating margins remain in acceptable ranges (24.4% and 10.2% respectively)

TOL Stock Risks: Toll Brothers, Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$11.6M indicates the company is burning cash despite paper profitability, suggesting severe working capital issues or inventory buildup
  • ! Net income declined 14.3% YoY while revenue grew only 1.1%, indicating margin compression and deteriorating operational efficiency
  • ! Critically low capital returns (ROE 2.5%, ROA 1.5%) demonstrate extremely poor profitability relative to equity and asset base
  • ! Massive gap between operating income and operating cash flow points to potential earnings quality concerns or significant working capital drains

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating cash flow trend and reconciliation to operating income variance
  • * Working capital components and inventory turnover rates
  • * Housing market demand indicators and backlog quality
  • * Net income trajectory and margin sustainability

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$2.1B
Net Income
$210.9M
EPS (Diluted)
$2.19
Free Cash Flow
$-11.6M
Total Assets
$14.4B
Cash Position
$1.2B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

TOL Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 24.4%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Net Margin 9.8%
ROE 2.5%
ROA 1.5%
FCF Margin -0.5%

TOL vs Market Sector: How Toll Brothers, Inc. Compares

How Toll Brothers, Inc. compares to Market sector averages

Net Margin
TOL 9.8%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
TOL Sector
ROE
TOL 2.5%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
TOL Sector
Current Ratio
TOL 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
TOL Sector
Debt/Equity
TOL 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
TOL Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Toll Brothers, Inc. Stock Overvalued? TOL Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Toll Brothers, Inc. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Market sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
2.5%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
9.8%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.00x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Toll Brothers, Inc. Balance Sheet: TOL Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
0.00x
Debt/Assets
41.7%
Interest Coverage
N/A
Long-term Debt
N/A

TOL Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

TOL 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $8.8B, Net Income $590.0M, EPS $4.03. Year 2022: Revenue $10.3B, Net Income $446.6M, EPS $3.40. Year 2023: Revenue $10.3B, Net Income $833.6M, EPS $6.63. Year 2024: Revenue $10.8B, Net Income $1.3B, EPS $10.90. Year 2025: Revenue $11.0B, Net Income $1.4B, EPS $12.36.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Toll Brothers, Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 25% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $12.36 reflects profitable operations.

TOL Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-0.5%
Free cash flow / Revenue

TOL Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Toll Brothers, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $1.9B $177.7M $1.75
Q3 2025 $2.7B $369.6M $3.60
Q2 2025 $2.7B $352.4M $3.50
Q1 2025 $1.9B $177.7M $1.75
Q3 2024 $2.7B $374.6M $3.60
Q2 2024 $2.5B $320.2M $2.85
Q1 2024 $1.8B $191.5M $1.70
Q3 2023 $2.5B $273.5M $2.35

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Toll Brothers, Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$7.3M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$50.4M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$18.9M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$25.0M
Returned to shareholders

TOL SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Toll Brothers, Inc. (CIK: 0000794170)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 16, 2026 4 xslF345X06/form4.xml View →
Mar 31, 2026 8-K tol-20260330.htm View →
Mar 11, 2026 8-K tol-20260310.htm View →
Mar 4, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 2, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about TOL

What is the AI rating for TOL?

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) has an AI rating of SELL with 70% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are TOL's key strengths?

Claude: Solid stockholders' equity base of $8.4B providing financial cushion. Reasonable cash position of $1.2B available for operations or opportunistic investments.

What are the risks of investing in TOL?

Claude: Negative free cash flow of -$11.6M indicates the company is burning cash despite paper profitability, suggesting severe working capital issues or inventory buildup. Net income declined 14.3% YoY while revenue grew only 1.1%, indicating margin compression and deteriorating operational efficiency.

What is TOL's revenue and growth?

Toll Brothers, Inc. reported revenue of $2.1B.

Does TOL pay dividends?

Toll Brothers, Inc. pays dividends, with $25.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find TOL SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Toll Brothers, Inc. (CIK: 0000794170) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is TOL's EPS?

Toll Brothers, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $2.19.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is TOL a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. has a SELL rating with 70% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is TOL stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for TOL: ROE of 2.5% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 9.8% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy TOL stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Toll Brothers, Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is TOL's free cash flow?

Toll Brothers, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $7.3M, with capital expenditures of $18.9M. FCF margin is -0.5%.

How does TOL compare to other Market stocks?

Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 9.8% (avg: 12%), ROE 2.5% (avg: 15%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.8).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 17, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-01-31 | Powered by Claude AI