📊 HOG Key Takeaways
Is HOG a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis
Harley-Davidson shows alarming profitability deterioration with net income falling 26.1% YoY despite 24.1% revenue growth, indicating severe margin compression and operational challenges. While liquidity and cash generation remain strong ($3.1B cash, $415.2M FCF), the 7.6% net margin, 10.8% ROE, and weakening earnings per share suggest cost control problems outweighing growth benefits.
Why Buy HOG? Key Strengths
- Strong revenue growth of 24.1% YoY demonstrates demand resilience
- Excellent liquidity position with $3.1B cash and 2.1x current ratio
- Robust free cash flow generation of $415.2M with 9.3% FCF margin
- Exceptional interest coverage of 50.3x and manageable 0.79x debt-to-equity ratio
HOG Investment Risks to Consider
- Severe profitability deterioration: net income down 26.1% YoY despite revenue growth indicates fundamental operational issues
- Weak profit margins: 7.6% net margin and 8.6% operating margin leave little room for further compression
- Poor capital efficiency: ROE of 10.8% and ROA of 4.2% well below acceptable thresholds for shareholder returns
- EPS declined 19.2% YoY, signaling shareholder value destruction despite top-line growth
- Unidentified cause of margin collapse increases uncertainty around forward trajectory
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating margin trend and cost structure stabilization
- Gross margin sustainability and COGS inflation pressure
- Return on equity recovery pathway
- Inventory turnover and working capital efficiency
- Net income growth relative to revenue growth in subsequent quarters
HOG Financial Metrics
💡 AI Analyst Insight
Strong liquidity with a 2.10x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.
HOG Profitability Ratios
HOG vs Default Sector
How HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. compares to Default sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is HOG Overvalued or Undervalued?
Based on fundamental analysis, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Default sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
HOG Balance Sheet & Liquidity
HOG 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis
5-Year Trend Summary: HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 1% decline. The most recent EPS of $4.87 reflects profitable operations.
HOG Growth Metrics (YoY)
HOG Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $881.2M | $119.0M | $0.91 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.0B | $107.6M | $0.88 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | $133.1M | $1.07 |
| Q3 2024 | $881.2M | $119.0M | $0.91 |
| Q2 2024 | $1.2B | $178.0M | $1.22 |
| Q1 2024 | $1.5B | $234.9M | $1.72 |
| Q3 2023 | $1.3B | $198.6M | $1.38 |
| Q2 2023 | $1.2B | $178.0M | $1.22 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
HOG Capital Allocation
HOG SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (CIK: 0000793952)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about HOG
What is the AI rating for HOG?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) has an AI rating of SELL with 68% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are HOG's key strengths?
Claude: Strong revenue growth of 24.1% YoY demonstrates demand resilience. Excellent liquidity position with $3.1B cash and 2.1x current ratio.
What are the risks of investing in HOG?
Claude: Severe profitability deterioration: net income down 26.1% YoY despite revenue growth indicates fundamental operational issues. Weak profit margins: 7.6% net margin and 8.6% operating margin leave little room for further compression.
What is HOG's revenue and growth?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. reported revenue of $4.5B.
Does HOG pay dividends?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. pays dividends, with $86.4M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find HOG SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (CIK: 0000793952) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is HOG's EPS?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. has a diluted EPS of $2.78.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is HOG a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. has a SELL rating with 68% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.
Is HOG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for HOG: ROE of 10.8% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 7.6% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.
Should I buy HOG stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is HOG's free cash flow?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.'s operating cash flow is $568.9M, with capital expenditures of $153.7M. FCF margin is 9.3%.
How does HOG compare to other Default stocks?
Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 7.6% (avg: 12%), ROE 10.8% (avg: 15%), current ratio 2.10 (avg: 1.8).