📊 HOG Key Takeaways
Is Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (HOG) a Good Investment?
Despite strong 24.1% revenue growth, Harley-Davidson exhibits severe operational distress with negative operating cash flow (-$228M) and negative free cash flow (-$259.8M), indicating the business is burning cash despite positive accounting earnings. Profitability is critically thin (2.0-2.1% margins) with abysmal returns on capital (ROE 0.8%, ROA 0.3%), and EPS is declining despite revenue expansion, signaling fundamental business deterioration.
Strong top-line growth and a very solid liquidity profile underpin healthy free cash flow generation and manageable leverage. However, earnings quality is mixed as net income and EPS declined despite revenue expansion, pointing to margin pressure or non-operating headwinds. Until profitability stabilizes and margins recover, the fundamental outlook appears balanced.
Why Buy Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Stock? HOG Key Strengths
- Strong top-line revenue growth of 24.1% year-over-year
- Solid liquidity position with $1.8B cash and 1.91x current ratio
- Moderate leverage (0.53x debt-to-equity) provides financial flexibility
- 24.1% YoY revenue growth
- Robust liquidity and cash (current 2.10x, quick 1.83x; $3.09B cash)
- Healthy FCF (9.3% margin) with low leverage and high interest coverage (50.3x)
HOG Stock Risks: Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Investment Risks
- Negative operating cash flow of -$228M despite positive net income indicates quality of earnings concern
- Negative free cash flow of -$259.8M unsustainable long-term without cash depletion
- Critically poor returns on capital (ROE 0.8%, ROA 0.3%) suggest capital inefficiency
- Razor-thin operating and net margins (2.0-2.1%) vulnerable to any revenue disruption
- EPS declining 19.2% YoY despite revenue growth indicates dilution and operational leverage breakdown
- Margin compression with net income down 26.1% YoY
- Cost inflation/product mix pressures weighing on operating margin
- Non-operating/financing impacts potentially diluting earnings
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating cash flow trend and path to positive conversion
- Free cash flow sustainability and impact on cash balance depletion rate
- Operating margin expansion and ability to improve cost structure
- Working capital changes driving the cash flow disconnect from reported earnings
- Operating margin trend
- Free cash flow margin (FCF/Revenue)
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (HOG) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios
💡 AI Analyst Insight
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.
HOG Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis
HOG vs Market Sector: How Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Compares
How Harley-Davidson, Inc.. compares to Market sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Stock Overvalued? HOG Valuation Analysis 2026
Based on fundamental analysis, Harley-Davidson, Inc.. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Market sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Balance Sheet: HOG Debt, Cash & Liquidity
HOG Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend
5-Year Trend Summary: Harley-Davidson, Inc..'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 1% decline. The most recent EPS of $4.87 reflects profitable operations.
HOG Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance
HOG Quarterly Earnings & Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | $24.8M | $0.22 |
| Q3 2025 | $881.2M | $119.0M | $0.91 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.0B | $107.6M | $0.88 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | $133.1M | $1.07 |
| Q3 2024 | $881.2M | $119.0M | $0.91 |
| Q2 2024 | $1.2B | $178.0M | $1.22 |
| Q1 2024 | $1.5B | $234.9M | $1.72 |
| Q3 2023 | $1.3B | $198.6M | $1.38 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation
HOG SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (CIK: 0000793952)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
| Date | Form | Document | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X06/wk-form4_1779396159.xml | View → |
| May 18, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X06/wk-form4_1779135981.xml | View → |
| May 18, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X06/wk-form4_1779135921.xml | View → |
| May 18, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X06/wk-form4_1779135876.xml | View → |
| May 18, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X06/wk-form4_1779135828.xml | View → |
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about HOG
What is the AI rating for HOG?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (HOG) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 68% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are HOG's key strengths?
Claude: Strong top-line revenue growth of 24.1% year-over-year. Solid liquidity position with $1.8B cash and 1.91x current ratio. ChatGPT: 24.1% YoY revenue growth. Robust liquidity and cash (current 2.10x, quick 1.83x; $3.09B cash).
What are the risks of investing in HOG?
Claude: Negative operating cash flow of -$228M despite positive net income indicates quality of earnings concern. Negative free cash flow of -$259.8M unsustainable long-term without cash depletion. ChatGPT: Margin compression with net income down 26.1% YoY. Cost inflation/product mix pressures weighing on operating margin.
What is HOG's revenue and growth?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. reported revenue of $1.2B.
Does HOG pay dividends?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. pays dividends, with $21.5M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find HOG SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (CIK: 0000793952) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is HOG's EPS?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. has a diluted EPS of $0.22.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is HOG a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc.. has a SELL rating with 68% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.
Is HOG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for HOG: ROE of 0.8% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 2.1% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.
Should I buy HOG stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives Harley-Davidson, Inc.. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is HOG's free cash flow?
Harley-Davidson, Inc..'s operating cash flow is $-228.0M, with capital expenditures of $31.8M. FCF margin is -22.2%.
How does HOG compare to other Market stocks?
Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 2.1% (avg: 12%), ROE 0.8% (avg: 15%), current ratio 1.91 (avg: 1.8).