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XPO, Inc. (XPO) Fundamental Analysis & AI Grade 2026

XPO NYSE Transportation Services CIK: 0001166003
Updated This Month • Analysis: May 6, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Grade
B
42% Confidence
N/A
B
42% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 XPO Key Takeaways

Revenue: $2.1B
Net Margin: 4.8%
Free Cash Flow: $72.0M
Current Ratio: 0.99x
Debt/Equity: 1.71x
EPS: $0.85
AI Grade: B with 42% confidence
XPO, Inc. (XPO) receives a B fundamental grade with 42% confidence from our AI analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $2.1B, net profit margin of 4.8%, and return on equity (ROE) of 5.5%, XPO, Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Transportation sector. Below is our complete XPO stock analysis for 2026.

Is XPO, Inc. (XPO) a Good Investment?

Claude

XPO faces structural headwinds with stagnant 1.1% revenue growth and declining EPS despite profitability, indicating margin compression in a capital-intensive transportation sector. Critical liquidity concerns (current ratio 0.99x) combined with elevated leverage (1.71x debt/equity) and minimal returns (ROE 5.5%, ROA 1.2%) present material downside risk.

XPO, Inc. Key Strengths (XPO)

Claude
  • + Positive free cash flow generation of $72M demonstrates underlying operational viability
  • + Adequate interest coverage ratio of 3.0x indicates ability to service debt obligations
  • + Profitability maintained with $101M net income despite challenging operating environment

XPO Stock Risks: XPO, Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Working capital deficit risk with current ratio of 0.99x below 1.0x safety threshold signals liquidity strain
  • ! Earnings per share contracted 18.3% YoY despite flat revenue growth, indicating margin deterioration
  • ! High leverage of 1.71x debt/equity ratio with $3.2B long-term debt limits financial flexibility for capex or downturns

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Current and quick ratios - trend deterioration signals cash flow stress
  • * EPS and operating margin trend - need reversal of 18.3% YoY decline
  • * Debt/equity ratio and free cash flow conversion - monitor deleveraging trajectory

XPO, Inc. (XPO) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$2.1B
Net Income
$101.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.85
Free Cash Flow
$72.0M
Total Assets
$8.2B
Cash Position
$237.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The relatively thin 3.4% FCF margin may limit capital allocation flexibility. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

XPO Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 5.9%
Operating Margin 8.3%
Net Margin 4.8%
ROE 5.5%
ROA 1.2%
FCF Margin 3.4%

XPO vs Transportation Sector: How XPO, Inc. Compares

How XPO, Inc. compares to Transportation sector averages

Net Margin
XPO 4.8%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
XPO Sector
ROE
XPO 5.5%
vs
Sector Avg 18.0%
XPO Sector
Current Ratio
XPO 1.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.0x
XPO Sector
Debt/Equity
XPO 1.7x
vs
Sector Avg 1.0x
XPO Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is XPO, Inc. Stock Overvalued? XPO Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, XPO, Inc. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Transportation sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
5.5%
Sector avg: 18%
Net Profit Margin
4.8%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
1.71x
Sector avg: 1x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

XPO, Inc. Balance Sheet: XPO Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.99x
Quick Ratio
0.96x
Debt/Equity
1.71x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
3.00x
Long-term Debt
$3.2B

XPO Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

XPO 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $12.8B, Net Income $419.0M, EPS $3.57. Year 2022: Revenue $7.7B, Net Income $110.0M, EPS $0.87. Year 2023: Revenue $7.7B, Net Income $336.0M, EPS $2.93. Year 2024: Revenue $8.1B, Net Income $666.0M, EPS $5.76. Year 2025: Revenue $8.2B, Net Income $189.0M, EPS $1.60.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: XPO, Inc.'s revenue has declined by 36% over the 5-year period, indicating business contraction. The most recent EPS of $1.60 reflects profitable operations.

XPO Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
3.4%
Free cash flow / Revenue

XPO Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for XPO, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $2.0B $69.0M $0.58
Q3 2025 $2.1B $82.0M $0.68
Q2 2025 $2.1B $106.0M $0.89
Q1 2025 $2.0B $67.0M $0.56
Q3 2024 $2.0B $84.0M $0.71
Q2 2024 $1.9B $33.0M $0.28
Q1 2024 $1.9B $14.0M $0.13
Q3 2023 $1.9B $84.0M $0.71

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

XPO, Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$183.0M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$30.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$111.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$3.0M
Returned to shareholders

XPO SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for XPO, Inc. (CIK: 0001166003)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Jun 1, 2026 8-K tm2616097d1_8k.htm View →
May 29, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1780085140.xml View →
May 26, 2026 8-K tm2615563d1_8k.htm View →
May 19, 2026 8-K tm2615073d1_8k.htm View →
Apr 30, 2026 10-Q xpo-20260331.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about XPO

What is the AI rating for XPO?

XPO, Inc. (XPO) has an AI grade of B with 42% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are XPO's key strengths?

Claude: Positive free cash flow generation of $72M demonstrates underlying operational viability. Adequate interest coverage ratio of 3.0x indicates ability to service debt obligations.

What are the risks of investing in XPO?

Claude: Working capital deficit risk with current ratio of 0.99x below 1.0x safety threshold signals liquidity strain. Earnings per share contracted 18.3% YoY despite flat revenue growth, indicating margin deterioration.

What is XPO's revenue and growth?

XPO, Inc. reported revenue of $2.1B.

Does XPO pay dividends?

XPO, Inc. pays dividends, with $3.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find XPO SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for XPO, Inc. (CIK: 0001166003) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is XPO's EPS?

XPO, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $0.85.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined grade reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

What is XPO's fundamental grade?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in June 2026, XPO, Inc. has a B grade with 42% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above for full context. This is not investment advice.

Is XPO stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for XPO: ROE of 5.5% (sector avg: 18%), net margin of 4.8% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

What is XPO's AI grade for 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives XPO, Inc. a combined B grade for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is XPO's free cash flow?

XPO, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $183.0M, with capital expenditures of $111.0M. FCF margin is 3.4%.

How does XPO compare to other Transportation stocks?

Vs Transportation sector averages: Net margin 4.8% (avg: 10%), ROE 5.5% (avg: 18%), current ratio 0.99 (avg: 1).

Is XPO, Inc. carrying too much debt?

XPO has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.71x, which is above the Transportation sector average of 1x. Combined with a current ratio below 1, this warrants careful monitoring of the balance sheet.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 6, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI