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XPO, Inc. (XPO) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

XPO NYSE Transportation Services CIK: 0001166003
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 19, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
HOLD
70% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 XPO Key Takeaways

Revenue: $8.2B
Net Margin: 3.9%
Free Cash Flow: $103.0M
Current Ratio: 1.05x
Debt/Equity: 1.75x
EPS: $2.64
AI Rating: HOLD with 70% confidence
XPO, Inc. (XPO) receives a HOLD rating with 70% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $8.2B, net profit margin of 3.9%, and return on equity (ROE) of 17.0%, XPO, Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Transportation sector. Below is our complete XPO stock analysis for 2026.

Is XPO, Inc. (XPO) a Good Investment?

Claude

XPO demonstrates solid operating profitability (8% margin, 17% ROE) but faces significant financial stress from dangerously thin liquidity (1.05x current ratio), declining earnings (-18.3% EPS), and minimal free cash flow (1.3% margin). High leverage (1.75x debt/equity) combined with tight working capital creates vulnerability to operational disruptions.

Why Buy XPO, Inc. Stock? XPO Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong return on equity (17%) indicating effective capital deployment
  • + Solid interest coverage ratio (11.3x) demonstrates manageable debt service capacity
  • + Substantial operating cash flow generation ($760M) provides near-term liquidity support

XPO Stock Risks: XPO, Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Critically low current ratio (1.05x) indicates acute short-term liquidity constraints and limited financial flexibility
  • ! Declining diluted EPS (-18.3% YoY) signals deteriorating profitability trend in core operations
  • ! Minimal free cash flow (1.3% margin) after capex expenditures limits debt reduction and growth investment capacity

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Liquidity position - current ratio trajectory and cash conversion cycle trends
  • * Free cash flow generation and FCF margin expansion after capex normalization
  • * Earnings stability and revenue growth acceleration beyond current 1.1% pace

XPO, Inc. (XPO) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$8.2B
Net Income
$316.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$2.64
Free Cash Flow
$103.0M
Total Assets
$8.2B
Cash Position
$310.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The relatively thin 1.3% FCF margin may limit capital allocation flexibility.

XPO Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 1.5%
Operating Margin 8.0%
Net Margin 3.9%
ROE 17.0%
ROA 3.9%
FCF Margin 1.3%

XPO vs Transportation Sector: How XPO, Inc. Compares

How XPO, Inc. compares to Transportation sector averages

Net Margin
XPO 3.9%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
XPO Sector
ROE
XPO 17.0%
vs
Sector Avg 18.0%
XPO Sector
Current Ratio
XPO 1.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.0x
XPO Sector
Debt/Equity
XPO 1.7x
vs
Sector Avg 1.0x
XPO Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is XPO, Inc. Stock Overvalued? XPO Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, XPO, Inc. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Transportation sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
17.0%
Sector avg: 18%
Net Profit Margin
3.9%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
1.75x
Sector avg: 1x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

XPO, Inc. Balance Sheet: XPO Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.05x
Quick Ratio
1.02x
Debt/Equity
1.75x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
11.31x
Long-term Debt
$3.3B

XPO Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

XPO 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $12.8B, Net Income $419.0M, EPS $3.57. Year 2022: Revenue $7.7B, Net Income $110.0M, EPS $0.87. Year 2023: Revenue $7.7B, Net Income $336.0M, EPS $2.93. Year 2024: Revenue $8.1B, Net Income $666.0M, EPS $5.76. Year 2025: Revenue $8.2B, Net Income $189.0M, EPS $1.60.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: XPO, Inc.'s revenue has declined by 36% over the 5-year period, indicating business contraction. The most recent EPS of $1.60 reflects profitable operations.

XPO Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
1.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

XPO Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for XPO, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $2.1B $82.0M $0.68
Q2 2025 $2.1B $106.0M $0.89
Q1 2025 $2.0B $67.0M $0.56
Q3 2024 $2.0B $84.0M $0.71
Q2 2024 $1.9B $33.0M $0.28
Q1 2024 $1.9B $14.0M $0.13
Q3 2023 $1.9B $84.0M $0.71
Q2 2023 $1.9B $33.0M $0.28

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

XPO, Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$760.0M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$125.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$657.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$3.0M
Returned to shareholders

XPO SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for XPO, Inc. (CIK: 0001166003)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 7, 2026 DEF 14A tm261502-1_def14a.htm View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773781362.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773781337.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773781310.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773781283.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about XPO

What is the AI rating for XPO?

XPO, Inc. (XPO) has an AI rating of HOLD with 70% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are XPO's key strengths?

Claude: Strong return on equity (17%) indicating effective capital deployment. Solid interest coverage ratio (11.3x) demonstrates manageable debt service capacity.

What are the risks of investing in XPO?

Claude: Critically low current ratio (1.05x) indicates acute short-term liquidity constraints and limited financial flexibility. Declining diluted EPS (-18.3% YoY) signals deteriorating profitability trend in core operations.

What is XPO's revenue and growth?

XPO, Inc. reported revenue of $8.2B.

Does XPO pay dividends?

XPO, Inc. pays dividends, with $3.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find XPO SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for XPO, Inc. (CIK: 0001166003) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is XPO's EPS?

XPO, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $2.64.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is XPO a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, XPO, Inc. has a HOLD rating with 70% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is XPO stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for XPO: ROE of 17.0% (sector avg: 18%), net margin of 3.9% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy XPO stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives XPO, Inc. a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is XPO's free cash flow?

XPO, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $760.0M, with capital expenditures of $657.0M. FCF margin is 1.3%.

How does XPO compare to other Transportation stocks?

Vs Transportation sector averages: Net margin 3.9% (avg: 10%), ROE 17.0% (avg: 18%), current ratio 1.05 (avg: 1).

Is XPO, Inc. carrying too much debt?

XPO has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.75x, which is above the Transportation sector average of 1x. However, the current ratio of 1.05 suggests adequate short-term liquidity.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 19, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI