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COP Stock Analysis - CONOCOPHILLIPS AI Rating

COP NYSE Petroleum Refining DE CIK: 0001163165
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 22, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
AI Rating
BUY
78% Confidence

📊 COP Key Takeaways

Revenue: $58.9B
Net Margin: 13.6%
Free Cash Flow: $9.6B
Current Ratio: 1.30x
Debt/Equity: 0.35x
EPS: $6.35
AI Rating: BUY with 78% confidence

Investment Thesis

ConocoPhillips demonstrates strong operational efficiency with a 21.5% operating margin and robust cash generation, producing $9.6B in free cash flow while maintaining a conservative balance sheet with 0.35x debt/equity. The company's fundamentals remain solid despite modest net income growth, supported by 13.7% revenue growth and healthy interest coverage of 10.8x, though the declining EPS suggests shareholder dilution or increased share count may warrant monitoring.

COP Strengths

  • + Strong free cash flow generation of $9.6B with 16.3% FCF margin indicating quality earnings
  • + Conservative leverage at 0.35x debt/equity with excellent interest coverage of 10.8x
  • + Solid operating margin of 21.5% demonstrates pricing power and operational efficiency in volatile commodity sector
  • + Healthy liquidity position with 1.30x current ratio and $6.5B cash providing operational flexibility
  • + Robust capital allocation with $10.2B capex supporting long-term production capacity

COP Risks

  • ! EPS declined 18.7% YoY despite 0.3% net income growth, indicating potential share dilution concerns
  • ! Revenue growth of 13.7% likely commodity-driven rather than organic production growth, exposing earnings to oil/gas price volatility
  • ! High insider activity (39 Form 4 filings in 90 days) warrants monitoring for potential insider concerns
  • ! Current ratio of 1.30x is adequate but not exceptional, leaving limited buffer for operational shocks
  • ! Petroleum refining sector faces long-term energy transition headwinds affecting multi-year growth prospects

Key Metrics to Watch

COP Financial Metrics

Revenue
$58.9B
Net Income
$8.0B
EPS (Diluted)
$6.35
Free Cash Flow
$9.6B
Total Assets
$121.9B
Cash Position
$6.5B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

CONOCOPHILLIPS presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

COP Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 21.5%
Net Margin 13.6%
ROE 12.4%
ROA 6.6%
FCF Margin 16.3%

COP vs Energy Sector

How CONOCOPHILLIPS compares to Energy sector averages

Net Margin
COP 13.6%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
COP Sector
ROE
COP 12.4%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
COP Sector
Current Ratio
COP 1.3x
vs
Sector Avg 1.3x
COP Sector
Debt/Equity
COP 0.3x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
COP Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

COP Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.30x
Quick Ratio
1.14x
Debt/Equity
0.35x
Debt/Assets
47.1%
Interest Coverage
10.76x
Long-term Debt
$22.4B

COP 5-Year Financial Trend

COP 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $45.8B, Net Income $7.2B, EPS $6.40. Year 2022: Revenue $61.0B, Net Income -$2.7B, EPS $-2.51. Year 2023: Revenue $61.0B, Net Income $8.1B, EPS $6.07. Year 2024: Revenue $61.0B, Net Income $18.7B, EPS $14.57. Year 2025: Revenue $51.8B, Net Income $11.0B, EPS $9.06.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: CONOCOPHILLIPS's revenue has grown significantly by 13% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $9.06 reflects profitable operations.

COP Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
16.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

COP Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for CONOCOPHILLIPS including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $11.7B $1.7B $1.38
Q2 2025 $12.6B $2.0B $1.56
Q1 2025 $12.3B $2.6B $2.15
Q3 2024 $11.7B $2.1B $1.76
Q2 2024 $11.0B $2.2B $1.84
Q1 2024 $12.0B $2.6B $2.15
Q3 2023 $12.6B $2.8B $2.32
Q2 2023 $11.0B $2.2B $1.84

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

COP Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$19.8B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$5.0B
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$10.2B
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$4.0B
Returned to shareholders

COP SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for CONOCOPHILLIPS (CIK: 0001163165)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 13, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about COP

What is the AI rating for COP?

CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) has an AI rating of BUY with 78% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are COP's key strengths?

Strong free cash flow generation of $9.6B with 16.3% FCF margin indicating quality earnings. Conservative leverage at 0.35x debt/equity with excellent interest coverage of 10.8x.

What are the risks of investing in COP?

EPS declined 18.7% YoY despite 0.3% net income growth, indicating potential share dilution concerns. Revenue growth of 13.7% likely commodity-driven rather than organic production growth, exposing earnings to oil/gas price volatility.

What is COP's revenue and growth?

CONOCOPHILLIPS reported revenue of $58.9B.

Does COP pay dividends?

CONOCOPHILLIPS pays dividends, with $3,995.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find COP SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for CONOCOPHILLIPS (CIK: 0001163165) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is COP's EPS?

CONOCOPHILLIPS has a diluted EPS of $6.35.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 22, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI