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Valero Energy Corp./Tx (VLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

VLO NYSE Petroleum Refining DE CIK: 0001035002
Updated This Month • Analysis: May 6, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
74% Confidence
AGREEMENT
SELL
70% Conf
HOLD
78% Conf

📊 VLO Key Takeaways

Revenue: $32.4B
Net Margin: 3.9%
Free Cash Flow: $-85.0M
Current Ratio: 1.58x
Debt/Equity: 0.44x
EPS: $4.22
AI Rating: SELL with 70% confidence
Valero Energy Corp./Tx (VLO) receives a SELL rating with 74% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $32.4B, net profit margin of 3.9%, and return on equity (ROE) of 5.3%, Valero Energy Corp./Tx demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Energy sector. Below is our complete VLO stock analysis for 2026.

Is Valero Energy Corp./Tx (VLO) a Good Investment?

Claude

Valero faces deteriorating operational performance with declining revenue (-5.5% YoY) and weakening earnings (EPS down 11.8% YoY), coupled with negative free cash flow and razor-thin net margins of 3.9%. While the company maintains financial stability through conservative leverage and adequate liquidity, the compressed refining margins and capital expenditures exceeding operating cash flow suggest headwinds in the near term.

ChatGPT

Valero shows solid core financial health with strong free cash flow generation, good liquidity, and moderate leverage, which supports resilience in a cyclical refining business. However, profitability remains thin, revenue declined year over year, and the negative gross profit alongside modest operating margins suggests earnings quality should be watched closely. The fundamentals support stability more than clear acceleration.

Why Buy Valero Energy Corp./Tx Stock? VLO Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Conservative leverage profile (Debt/Equity 0.44x) provides financial flexibility
  • + Strong interest coverage (12.4x) demonstrates ability to service debt obligations
  • + Substantial cash position ($5.7B) provides operational buffer and flexibility
ChatGPT
  • + Strong free cash flow generation of $4.35B with a 3.5% FCF margin
  • + Healthy balance sheet with 1.65x current ratio and modest 0.35x debt-to-equity
  • + Net income remained stable year over year despite lower revenue, indicating operating resilience

VLO Stock Risks: Valero Energy Corp./Tx Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Negative free cash flow (-$85M) indicates CapEx exceeds operating cash generation
  • ! Revenue and EPS declining YoY, signaling deteriorating top-line and earnings momentum
  • ! Weak profitability metrics (Net Margin 3.9%, ROE 5.3%, ROA 2.0%) indicate poor capital efficiency and commodity margin compression
ChatGPT
  • ! Very thin margins with negative gross margin and only 2.6% operating margin
  • ! Revenue declined 5.5% year over year, pointing to limited top-line momentum
  • ! Refining fundamentals are inherently cyclical, which can pressure earnings and cash flow volatility

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Refining crack spreads and gross margin recovery
  • * Free cash flow trajectory and capital allocation sustainability
  • * Operating cash flow trends and working capital dynamics
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin and gross margin trend
  • * Free cash flow and operating cash flow durability

Valero Energy Corp./Tx (VLO) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$32.4B
Net Income
$1.3B
EPS (Diluted)
$4.22
Free Cash Flow
$-85.0M
Total Assets
$62.1B
Cash Position
$5.7B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Valero Energy Corp./Tx presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

VLO Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin -0.7%
Operating Margin 5.3%
Net Margin 3.9%
ROE 5.3%
ROA 2.0%
FCF Margin -0.3%

VLO vs Energy Sector: How Valero Energy Corp./Tx Compares

How Valero Energy Corp./Tx compares to Energy sector averages

Net Margin
VLO 3.9%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
VLO Sector
ROE
VLO 5.3%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
VLO Sector
Current Ratio
VLO 1.6x
vs
Sector Avg 1.3x
VLO Sector
Debt/Equity
VLO 0.4x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
VLO Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Valero Energy Corp./Tx Stock Overvalued? VLO Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Valero Energy Corp./Tx shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Energy sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
5.3%
Sector avg: 14%
Net Profit Margin
3.9%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.44x
Sector avg: 0.6x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Valero Energy Corp./Tx Balance Sheet: VLO Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.58x
Quick Ratio
1.15x
Debt/Equity
0.44x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
12.36x
Long-term Debt
$10.5B

VLO Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

VLO 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $114.0B, Net Income $2.4B, EPS $5.84. Year 2022: Revenue $176.4B, Net Income -$1.4B, EPS $-3.50. Year 2023: Revenue $176.4B, Net Income $930.0M, EPS $2.27. Year 2024: Revenue $176.4B, Net Income $11.5B, EPS $29.04. Year 2025: Revenue $144.8B, Net Income $8.8B, EPS $24.92.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Valero Energy Corp./Tx's revenue has grown significantly by 27% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $24.92 reflects profitable operations.

VLO Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-0.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

VLO Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Valero Energy Corp./Tx including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $30.3B -$595.0M $-1.90
Q3 2025 $32.2B $364.0M $1.14
Q2 2025 $29.9B $119.0M $0.37
Q1 2025 $30.3B -$595.0M $-1.90
Q3 2024 $32.9B $364.0M $1.14
Q2 2024 $34.5B $880.0M $2.71
Q1 2024 $31.8B $1.2B $3.75
Q3 2023 $38.4B $2.6B $7.19

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Valero Energy Corp./Tx Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$1.4B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$573.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$1.5B
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$359.0M
Returned to shareholders

VLO SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Valero Energy Corp./Tx (CIK: 0001035002)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
May 11, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778530531.xml View →
May 11, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778530477.xml View →
May 11, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778530419.xml View →
May 11, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778530356.xml View →
May 11, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778530285.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about VLO

What is the AI rating for VLO?

Valero Energy Corp./Tx (VLO) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 74% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are VLO's key strengths?

Claude: Conservative leverage profile (Debt/Equity 0.44x) provides financial flexibility. Strong interest coverage (12.4x) demonstrates ability to service debt obligations. ChatGPT: Strong free cash flow generation of $4.35B with a 3.5% FCF margin. Healthy balance sheet with 1.65x current ratio and modest 0.35x debt-to-equity.

What are the risks of investing in VLO?

Claude: Negative free cash flow (-$85M) indicates CapEx exceeds operating cash generation. Revenue and EPS declining YoY, signaling deteriorating top-line and earnings momentum. ChatGPT: Very thin margins with negative gross margin and only 2.6% operating margin. Revenue declined 5.5% year over year, pointing to limited top-line momentum.

What is VLO's revenue and growth?

Valero Energy Corp./Tx reported revenue of $32.4B.

Does VLO pay dividends?

Valero Energy Corp./Tx pays dividends, with $359.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find VLO SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Valero Energy Corp./Tx (CIK: 0001035002) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is VLO's EPS?

Valero Energy Corp./Tx has a diluted EPS of $4.22.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is VLO a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Valero Energy Corp./Tx has a SELL rating with 74% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is VLO stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for VLO: ROE of 5.3% (sector avg: 14%), net margin of 3.9% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy VLO stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Valero Energy Corp./Tx a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is VLO's free cash flow?

Valero Energy Corp./Tx's operating cash flow is $1.4B, with capital expenditures of $1.5B. FCF margin is -0.3%.

How does VLO compare to other Energy stocks?

Vs Energy sector averages: Net margin 3.9% (avg: 12%), ROE 5.3% (avg: 14%), current ratio 1.58 (avg: 1.3).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 6, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI