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Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

SW NYSE Paperboard Containers & Boxes L2 CIK: 0002005951
Updated This Month • Analysis: May 6, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
72% Confidence
N/A
SELL
72% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 SW Key Takeaways

Revenue: $7.7B
Net Margin: 0.8%
Free Cash Flow: $-420.0M
Current Ratio: 1.44x
Debt/Equity: 0.74x
EPS: $0.12
AI Rating: SELL with 72% confidence
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) receives a SELL rating with 72% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $7.7B, net profit margin of 0.8%, and return on equity (ROE) of 0.4%, Smurfit Westrock plc demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Materials sector. Below is our complete SW stock analysis for 2026.

Is Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) a Good Investment?

Claude

Despite exceptional 47.7% YoY revenue growth, the company exhibits deeply concerning fundamentals with flat net income, razor-thin 0.8% net margins, and critically negative -$420M free cash flow. The inability to convert top-line expansion into profit growth, combined with unsustainable capital expenditures of $624M against only $204M operating cash flow, suggests operational distress or failed integration that outweighs the revenue growth narrative.

Why Buy Smurfit Westrock plc Stock? SW Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Revenue growth of 47.7% YoY indicates significant business expansion or successful acquisition integration
  • + Reasonable leverage with Debt/Equity ratio of 0.74x and acceptable Current Ratio of 1.44x
  • + Positive operating cash flow of $204M demonstrates underlying operational cash generation

SW Stock Risks: Smurfit Westrock plc Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Critical negative free cash flow of -$420M (-5.4% margin) indicates the company is burning cash despite revenue growth
  • ! Net income completely flat YoY despite 47.7% revenue growth indicates severe margin compression or integration challenges
  • ! Extremely thin net margin of 0.8% and operating margin of only 3.3% leave minimal profitability cushion
  • ! Negligible returns on equity (0.4%) and assets (0.1%) indicate poor capital efficiency and value destruction
  • ! Heavy capital intensity with $624M CapEx unsustainable by $674M cash position against $13.3B debt

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Free cash flow trajectory and path to positive FCF generation
  • * Operating margin expansion and ability to leverage revenue scale into profit growth
  • * Net income growth and net margin stabilization
  • * Return on equity improvement and capital efficiency
  • * Debt reduction and cash position strengthening

Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$7.7B
Net Income
$65.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.12
Free Cash Flow
$-420.0M
Total Assets
$45.2B
Cash Position
$674.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Smurfit Westrock plc presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

SW Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 16.4%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Net Margin 0.8%
ROE 0.4%
ROA 0.1%
FCF Margin -5.4%

SW vs Materials Sector: How Smurfit Westrock plc Compares

How Smurfit Westrock plc compares to Materials sector averages

Net Margin
SW 0.8%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
SW Sector
ROE
SW 0.4%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
SW Sector
Current Ratio
SW 1.4x
vs
Sector Avg 1.6x
SW Sector
Debt/Equity
SW 0.7x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
SW Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Smurfit Westrock plc Stock Overvalued? SW Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Smurfit Westrock plc shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Materials sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
0.4%
Sector avg: 14%
Net Profit Margin
0.8%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.74x
Sector avg: 0.6x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Smurfit Westrock plc Balance Sheet: SW Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.44x
Quick Ratio
0.95x
Debt/Equity
0.74x
Debt/Assets
60.0%
Interest Coverage
N/A
Long-term Debt
$13.3B

SW Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

SW 5-year financial data: Year 2024: Revenue $21.1B, Net Income $1.0B, EPS $3.96. Year 2025: Revenue $31.2B, Net Income $825.0M, EPS $3.17.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Smurfit Westrock plc's revenue has grown significantly by 48% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $3.17 reflects profitable operations.

SW Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-5.4%
Free cash flow / Revenue

SW Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Smurfit Westrock plc including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $7.7B $65.0M $0.12
Q3 2025 $7.7B -$150.0M $-0.30
Q2 2025 $3.0B -$28.0M $-0.05
Q1 2025 $2.9B $191.0M $0.73
Q3 2024 $2.9B -$150.0M $-0.30

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Smurfit Westrock plc Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$204.0M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$624.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$237.0M
Returned to shareholders

SW SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Smurfit Westrock plc (CIK: 0002005951)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1777999967.xml View →
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1777999957.xml View →
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1777999949.xml View →
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1777999938.xml View →
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1777999929.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about SW

What is the AI rating for SW?

Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) has an AI rating of SELL with 72% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are SW's key strengths?

Claude: Revenue growth of 47.7% YoY indicates significant business expansion or successful acquisition integration. Reasonable leverage with Debt/Equity ratio of 0.74x and acceptable Current Ratio of 1.44x.

What are the risks of investing in SW?

Claude: Critical negative free cash flow of -$420M (-5.4% margin) indicates the company is burning cash despite revenue growth. Net income completely flat YoY despite 47.7% revenue growth indicates severe margin compression or integration challenges.

What is SW's revenue and growth?

Smurfit Westrock plc reported revenue of $7.7B.

Does SW pay dividends?

Smurfit Westrock plc pays dividends, with $237.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find SW SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Smurfit Westrock plc (CIK: 0002005951) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is SW's EPS?

Smurfit Westrock plc has a diluted EPS of $0.12.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is SW a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Smurfit Westrock plc has a SELL rating with 72% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is SW stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for SW: ROE of 0.4% (sector avg: 14%), net margin of 0.8% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy SW stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Smurfit Westrock plc a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is SW's free cash flow?

Smurfit Westrock plc's operating cash flow is $204.0M, with capital expenditures of $624.0M. FCF margin is -5.4%.

How does SW compare to other Materials stocks?

Vs Materials sector averages: Net margin 0.8% (avg: 10%), ROE 0.4% (avg: 14%), current ratio 1.44 (avg: 1.6).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 6, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI