📊 GPK Key Takeaways
Is GPK a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis
Graphic Packaging generates strong free cash flow ($628M, 7.3% FCF margin) and maintains reasonable interest coverage (6.8x), providing financial stability. However, stagnant revenue growth (0.4%) and significant EPS decline (-31.5% YoY) coupled with elevated leverage (1.63x Debt/Equity) against only 3.8% ROA limit upside potential in this mature commodity packaging sector.
Graphic Packaging generates steady cash with a 9.3% operating margin and 7.3% FCF margin, supporting debt service and ongoing investment. Leverage is elevated but covered by 6.8x interest coverage; however, revenue growth is flat and diluted EPS fell materially, signaling weaker growth quality. Fundamentals appear sound but not compelling enough without clearer margin expansion or top-line acceleration.
Why Buy GPK? Key Strengths
- Robust free cash flow generation of $628M with healthy 7.3% FCF margin demonstrates strong operational cash conversion
- Adequate interest coverage ratio of 6.8x and solid operating cash flow of $841M provide debt service capacity
- 13.3% ROE shows reasonable return on shareholder capital despite cyclical industry headwinds and low asset efficiency
- Consistent free cash flow generation (7.3% FCF margin)
- Solid operating margin and interest coverage (6.8x)
- Respectable ROE (13.3%) for a capital-intensive business
GPK Investment Risks to Consider
- Minimal revenue growth at 0.4% YoY with flat net income growth indicates business stagnation with no organic expansion
- Diluted EPS declined 31.5% YoY despite flat net income, suggesting significant shareholder value erosion
- High financial leverage at 1.63x Debt/Equity with $5.4B long-term debt against $3.3B equity constrains financial flexibility and increases refinancing risk
- Poor asset efficiency with 3.8% ROA and low quick ratio of 0.52x raises working capital concerns
- Elevated leverage (Debt/Equity 1.63x; LT debt $5.43B)
- EPS down 31.5% YoY despite flat net income (dilution risk)
- Low quick ratio (0.52x) indicating tighter liquidity and inventory reliance
Key Metrics to Watch
- Quarterly revenue growth trajectory and operating margin sustainability
- Free cash flow trends and debt paydown progress toward reducing leverage ratio
- Earnings per share and share dilution/buyback activity relative to net income changes
- Operating margin
- Free cash flow margin
GPK Financial Metrics
💡 AI Analyst Insight
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.
GPK Profitability Ratios
GPK vs Default Sector
How GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO compares to Default sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is GPK Overvalued or Undervalued?
Based on fundamental analysis, GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Default sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
GPK Balance Sheet & Liquidity
GPK 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis
5-Year Trend Summary: GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO's revenue has grown significantly by 32% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $2.34 reflects profitable operations.
GPK Growth Metrics (YoY)
GPK Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.2B | $165.0M | $0.48 |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | $104.0M | $0.34 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | $127.0M | $0.42 |
| Q3 2024 | $2.2B | N/A | $0.55 |
| Q2 2024 | $2.2B | $150.0M | $0.49 |
| Q1 2024 | $2.3B | $165.0M | $0.53 |
| Q3 2023 | $2.3B | $170.0M | $0.55 |
| Q2 2023 | $2.4B | $66.0M | $0.21 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
GPK Capital Allocation
GPK SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (CIK: 0001408075)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about GPK
What is the AI rating for GPK?
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a Combined AI Rating of HOLD from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 72% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are GPK's key strengths?
Claude: Robust free cash flow generation of $628M with healthy 7.3% FCF margin demonstrates strong operational cash conversion. Adequate interest coverage ratio of 6.8x and solid operating cash flow of $841M provide debt service capacity. ChatGPT: Consistent free cash flow generation (7.3% FCF margin). Solid operating margin and interest coverage (6.8x).
What are the risks of investing in GPK?
Claude: Minimal revenue growth at 0.4% YoY with flat net income growth indicates business stagnation with no organic expansion. Diluted EPS declined 31.5% YoY despite flat net income, suggesting significant shareholder value erosion. ChatGPT: Elevated leverage (Debt/Equity 1.63x; LT debt $5.43B). EPS down 31.5% YoY despite flat net income (dilution risk).
What is GPK's revenue and growth?
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO reported revenue of $8.6B.
Does GPK pay dividends?
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO pays dividends, with $128.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find GPK SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (CIK: 0001408075) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is GPK's EPS?
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO has a diluted EPS of $1.48.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is GPK a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO has a HOLD rating with 72% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.
Is GPK stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for GPK: ROE of 13.3% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 5.2% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.
Should I buy GPK stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is GPK's free cash flow?
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO's operating cash flow is $841.0M, with capital expenditures of $213.1M. FCF margin is 7.3%.
How does GPK compare to other Default stocks?
Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 5.2% (avg: 12%), ROE 13.3% (avg: 15%), current ratio 1.30 (avg: 1.8).