📊 GPK Key Takeaways
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) a Good Investment?
Graphic Packaging is in financial distress with deteriorating fundamentals across profitability, cash generation, and solvency metrics. The company is burning cash (-326M free cash flow) while carrying 5.6B in debt it cannot adequately service (0.2x interest coverage), creating critical refinancing and liquidity risk. Minimal growth (0.4%) and negative net income (-43M) indicate fundamental operational challenges that cannot be remedied through cost-cutting alone.
Graphic Packaging generates steady cash with a 9.3% operating margin and 7.3% FCF margin, supporting debt service and ongoing investment. Leverage is elevated but covered by 6.8x interest coverage; however, revenue growth is flat and diluted EPS fell materially, signaling weaker growth quality. Fundamentals appear sound but not compelling enough without clearer margin expansion or top-line acceleration.
Why Buy Graphic Packaging Holding Co Stock? GPK Key Strengths
- Established asset base of 11.7B indicates mature operational infrastructure in stable packaging sector
- Strong gross margins of 51% demonstrate reasonable production-level pricing and cost management
- Meaningful revenue scale of 2.2B provides operational runway despite profitability challenges
- Consistent free cash flow generation (7.3% FCF margin)
- Solid operating margin and interest coverage (6.8x)
- Respectable ROE (13.3%) for a capital-intensive business
GPK Stock Risks: Graphic Packaging Holding Co Investment Risks
- Critical insolvency risk: interest coverage of 0.2x means operating income cannot service debt obligations, creating imminent default or restructuring risk
- Unsustainable cash burn: negative operating cash flow (-113M) and free cash flow (-326M) will deplete 189M cash reserves within months at current burn rate
- High leverage with weak liquidity: 1.73x debt-to-equity ratio combined with quick ratio of 0.59x creates refinancing vulnerability and potential covenant breaches
- Deteriorating profitability: net loss expanding 32.5% YoY with negative net margin signals structural, not cyclical, problems
- Stagnant growth at 0.4% YoY indicates no revenue driver to improve cash generation or debt serviceability
- Elevated leverage (Debt/Equity 1.63x; LT debt $5.43B)
- EPS down 31.5% YoY despite flat net income (dilution risk)
- Low quick ratio (0.52x) indicating tighter liquidity and inventory reliance
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating cash flow trend and path to positive territory
- Debt covenant compliance status and maturity schedule
- Interest coverage ratio movement and debt service sustainability
- Free cash flow and monthly cash burn rate
- Insider transaction patterns - elevated selling would signal management loss of confidence
- Operating margin
- Free cash flow margin
Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios
💡 AI Analyst Insight
Graphic Packaging Holding Co presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.
GPK Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis
GPK vs Materials Sector: How Graphic Packaging Holding Co Compares
How Graphic Packaging Holding Co compares to Materials sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Co Stock Overvalued? GPK Valuation Analysis 2026
Based on fundamental analysis, Graphic Packaging Holding Co shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Materials sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
Graphic Packaging Holding Co Balance Sheet: GPK Debt, Cash & Liquidity
GPK Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend
5-Year Trend Summary: Graphic Packaging Holding Co's revenue has grown significantly by 32% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $2.34 reflects profitable operations.
GPK Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance
GPK Quarterly Earnings & Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | -$43.0M | $-0.14 |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2B | $165.0M | $0.48 |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | $104.0M | $0.34 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | $127.0M | $0.42 |
| Q3 2024 | $2.2B | N/A | $0.55 |
| Q2 2024 | $2.2B | $150.0M | $0.49 |
| Q1 2024 | $2.3B | $165.0M | $0.53 |
| Q3 2023 | $2.3B | $170.0M | $0.55 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
Graphic Packaging Holding Co Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation
GPK SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Graphic Packaging Holding Co (CIK: 0001408075)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about GPK
What is the AI rating for GPK?
Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (STRONG SELL) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 78% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are GPK's key strengths?
Claude: Established asset base of 11.7B indicates mature operational infrastructure in stable packaging sector. Strong gross margins of 51% demonstrate reasonable production-level pricing and cost management. ChatGPT: Consistent free cash flow generation (7.3% FCF margin). Solid operating margin and interest coverage (6.8x).
What are the risks of investing in GPK?
Claude: Critical insolvency risk: interest coverage of 0.2x means operating income cannot service debt obligations, creating imminent default or restructuring risk. Unsustainable cash burn: negative operating cash flow (-113M) and free cash flow (-326M) will deplete 189M cash reserves within months at current burn rate. ChatGPT: Elevated leverage (Debt/Equity 1.63x; LT debt $5.43B). EPS down 31.5% YoY despite flat net income (dilution risk).
What is GPK's revenue and growth?
Graphic Packaging Holding Co reported revenue of $2.2B.
Does GPK pay dividends?
Graphic Packaging Holding Co pays dividends, with $32.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find GPK SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for Graphic Packaging Holding Co (CIK: 0001408075) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is GPK's EPS?
Graphic Packaging Holding Co has a diluted EPS of $-0.14.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is GPK a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Co has a SELL rating with 78% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.
Is GPK stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for GPK: ROE of -1.3% (sector avg: 14%), net margin of -2.0% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.
Should I buy GPK stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives Graphic Packaging Holding Co a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is GPK's free cash flow?
Graphic Packaging Holding Co's operating cash flow is $-113.0M, with capital expenditures of $213.1M. FCF margin is -15.1%.
How does GPK compare to other Materials stocks?
Vs Materials sector averages: Net margin -2.0% (avg: 10%), ROE -1.3% (avg: 14%), current ratio 1.41 (avg: 1.6).
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Co carrying too much debt?
GPK has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.73x, which is above the Materials sector average of 0.6x. However, the current ratio of 1.41 suggests adequate short-term liquidity.