📊 GPRE Key Takeaways
Is GPRE a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis
Green Plains has achieved extraordinary 1006% revenue growth but generated -$121.3M net losses with negative operating income of -$67.2M, indicating fundamental inability to convert massive topline expansion into profitability. Razor-thin 6.5% gross margins and negative interest coverage ratio of -8.6x present material debt servicing risk, despite adequate liquidity providing near-term stability.
Liquidity is solid and leverage is moderate, and the business generated positive operating and free cash flow despite reporting losses. However, profitability remains negative with thin gross margin and very weak interest coverage, suggesting growth quality and earnings durability are not yet proven. Await clear margin expansion and coverage improvement before a more constructive view.
Why Buy GPRE? Key Strengths
- Exceptional revenue growth of 1006.8% YoY demonstrates dramatic business expansion
- Positive free cash flow of $73.7M ($110.9M operating cash flow less capex) indicates underlying cash generation
- Strong liquidity position with 1.79x current ratio and $182.3M cash reserves provide operational buffer
- Healthy liquidity (1.79x current, 1.70x quick)
- Moderate leverage with meaningful equity base (0.49x D/E)
- Positive operating cash flow and free cash flow
GPRE Investment Risks to Consider
- Operating losses of -$67.2M and net losses of -$121.3M despite $2.1B revenue indicate structural profitability failure
- Negative interest coverage ratio of -8.6x shows inability to service $374.5M long-term debt from operations—debt service dependency on cash reserves
- Extremely compressed 6.5% gross margin in commodity chemicals sector leaves zero operational flexibility and cannot absorb operating expense base
- Sustained operating and net losses with negative margins and ROE
- Very weak interest coverage (-8.6x) heightens financing risk
- Revenue growth quality questionable given 6.5% gross margin
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating income trajectory toward positive territory—company must reach operating breakeven to sustain debt levels
- Gross margin expansion—6.5% margin is structurally insufficient; monitor path to 8-10% minimum viability
- Interest coverage ratio recovery—current -8.6x is unsustainable; must reach positive 2.0x+ within 12-18 months
- Operating margin (turn and sustain > 0%)
- Interest coverage (improve toward and above 1x)
GPRE Financial Metrics
💡 AI Analyst Insight
The relatively thin 3.5% FCF margin may limit capital allocation flexibility.
GPRE Profitability Ratios
GPRE vs Industrial Sector
How Green Plains Inc. compares to Industrial sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is GPRE Overvalued or Undervalued?
Based on fundamental analysis, Green Plains Inc. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Industrial sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
GPRE Balance Sheet & Liquidity
GPRE 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis
5-Year Trend Summary: Green Plains Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 119% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $-1.59 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.
GPRE Growth Metrics (YoY)
GPRE Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $39.1M | $11.9M | $0.17 |
| Q2 2025 | $41.1M | -$24.4M | $-0.38 |
| Q1 2025 | $35.8M | -$51.4M | $-0.81 |
| Q3 2024 | $32.9M | $22.3M | $0.35 |
| Q2 2024 | $31.3M | -$24.4M | $-0.38 |
| Q1 2024 | $41.6M | -$51.4M | $-0.81 |
| Q3 2023 | $13.8M | $22.3M | $0.35 |
| Q2 2023 | $19.3M | -$15.1M | $-0.28 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
GPRE Capital Allocation
GPRE SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Green Plains Inc. (CIK: 0001309402)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
| Date | Form | Document | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773695675.xml | View → |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773695502.xml | View → |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773695403.xml | View → |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773259761.xml | View → |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 4 | xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773259676.xml | View → |
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about GPRE
What is the AI rating for GPRE?
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 65% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are GPRE's key strengths?
Claude: Exceptional revenue growth of 1006.8% YoY demonstrates dramatic business expansion. Positive free cash flow of $73.7M ($110.9M operating cash flow less capex) indicates underlying cash generation. ChatGPT: Healthy liquidity (1.79x current, 1.70x quick). Moderate leverage with meaningful equity base (0.49x D/E).
What are the risks of investing in GPRE?
Claude: Operating losses of -$67.2M and net losses of -$121.3M despite $2.1B revenue indicate structural profitability failure. Negative interest coverage ratio of -8.6x shows inability to service $374.5M long-term debt from operations—debt service dependency on cash reserves. ChatGPT: Sustained operating and net losses with negative margins and ROE. Very weak interest coverage (-8.6x) heightens financing risk.
What is GPRE's revenue and growth?
Green Plains Inc. reported revenue of $2.1B.
Does GPRE pay dividends?
Green Plains Inc. pays dividends, with $0.7M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find GPRE SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for Green Plains Inc. (CIK: 0001309402) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is GPRE's EPS?
Green Plains Inc. has a diluted EPS of $-1.80.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is GPRE a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Green Plains Inc. has a SELL rating with 65% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.
Is GPRE stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for GPRE: ROE of -15.8% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of -5.8% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.
Should I buy GPRE stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives Green Plains Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is GPRE's free cash flow?
Green Plains Inc.'s operating cash flow is $110.9M, with capital expenditures of $37.2M. FCF margin is 3.5%.
How does GPRE compare to other Industrial stocks?
Vs Industrial sector averages: Net margin -5.8% (avg: 10%), ROE -15.8% (avg: 15%), current ratio 1.79 (avg: 1.8).