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CMG Stock Analysis - CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC AI Rating

CMG NYSE Retail-Eating Places CIK: 0001058090
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 22, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
AI Rating
STRONG BUY
88% Confidence

📊 CMG Key Takeaways

Revenue: $11.9B
Net Margin: 12.9%
Free Cash Flow: $1.4B
Current Ratio: 1.23x
Debt/Equity: 0.00x
EPS: $1.14
AI Rating: STRONG BUY with 88% confidence

Investment Thesis

Chipotle demonstrates exceptional fundamental strength with industry-leading profitability metrics (12.9% net margin, 16.2% operating margin), outstanding returns on equity (54.3%) and assets (17.1%), coupled with zero debt and robust free cash flow generation of $1.4B. Consistent revenue growth of 5.4% YoY combined with improving earnings per share (+2.7% YoY) indicates healthy operational efficiency and disciplined capital allocation without financial leverage.

CMG Strengths

  • + Exceptional profitability with 12.9% net margin and 16.2% operating margin, well above retail restaurant peers
  • + Outstanding capital efficiency with ROE of 54.3% and ROA of 17.1%, demonstrating superior management of shareholder capital
  • + Zero long-term debt and strong balance sheet with $350.5M cash, providing financial flexibility for growth investments
  • + Strong free cash flow generation of $1.4B (12.1% FCF margin) with operating cash flow of $2.1B covering 31% of revenue
  • + Consistent revenue growth of 5.4% YoY with net income growth of 0.1% and EPS growth of 2.7%, showing earnings resilience
  • + Solid liquidity position with 1.23x current ratio and 1.19x quick ratio, indicating ability to meet short-term obligations

CMG Risks

  • ! Modest net income growth of 0.1% YoY suggests limited earnings expansion despite revenue growth, indicating margin pressure or operating deleverage
  • ! Capital expenditure of $666.3M (5.6% of revenue) may constrain free cash flow if expansion plans accelerate significantly
  • ! Moderate current ratio of 1.23x is lower than industry best practices, potentially limiting operational flexibility during economic downturns
  • ! Limited visibility on gross margin (not disclosed in data) raises questions about cost structure and pricing power sustainability

Key Metrics to Watch

CMG Financial Metrics

Revenue
$11.9B
Net Income
$1.5B
EPS (Diluted)
$1.14
Free Cash Flow
$1.4B
Total Assets
$9.0B
Cash Position
$350.5M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

CMG Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 16.2%
Net Margin 12.9%
ROE 54.3%
ROA 17.1%
FCF Margin 12.1%

CMG vs Consumer Sector

How CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC compares to Consumer sector averages

Net Margin
CMG 12.9%
vs
Sector Avg 8.0%
CMG Sector
ROE
CMG 54.3%
vs
Sector Avg 18.0%
CMG Sector
Current Ratio
CMG 1.2x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
CMG Sector
Debt/Equity
CMG 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 0.8x
CMG Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

CMG Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.23x
Quick Ratio
1.19x
Debt/Equity
0.00x
Debt/Assets
68.5%
Interest Coverage
N/A
Long-term Debt
$0.0

CMG 5-Year Financial Trend

CMG 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $7.5B, Net Income $350.2M, EPS $12.38. Year 2022: Revenue $8.6B, Net Income $355.8M, EPS $12.52. Year 2023: Revenue $9.9B, Net Income $653.0M, EPS $22.90. Year 2024: Revenue $11.3B, Net Income $899.1M, EPS $0.64. Year 2025: Revenue $11.9B, Net Income $1.2B, EPS $0.89.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC's revenue has grown significantly by 58% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $0.89 reflects profitable operations.

CMG Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
12.1%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CMG Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $2.8B $359.3M $0.28
Q2 2025 $3.0B $359.3M $0.32
Q1 2025 $2.7B $359.3M $0.26
Q3 2024 $2.5B $291.6M $0.23
Q2 2024 $2.5B $291.6M $0.25
Q1 2024 $2.4B $291.6M $10.50
Q3 2023 $2.2B $158.3M $9.20
Q2 2023 $2.2B $158.3M $9.25

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

CMG Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$2.1B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$2.4B
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$666.3M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

CMG SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CIK: 0001058090)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Feb 25, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Feb 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Feb 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Feb 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Feb 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CMG

What is the AI rating for CMG?

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) has an AI rating of STRONG BUY with 88% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CMG's key strengths?

Exceptional profitability with 12.9% net margin and 16.2% operating margin, well above retail restaurant peers. Outstanding capital efficiency with ROE of 54.3% and ROA of 17.1%, demonstrating superior management of shareholder capital.

What are the risks of investing in CMG?

Modest net income growth of 0.1% YoY suggests limited earnings expansion despite revenue growth, indicating margin pressure or operating deleverage. Capital expenditure of $666.3M (5.6% of revenue) may constrain free cash flow if expansion plans accelerate significantly.

What is CMG's revenue and growth?

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC reported revenue of $11.9B.

Does CMG pay dividends?

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find CMG SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CIK: 0001058090) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CMG's EPS?

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC has a diluted EPS of $1.14.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 22, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI