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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

CMG NYSE Retail-Eating Places CIK: 0001058090
Recently Updated • Analysis: May 6, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
BUY
78% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
BUY
72% Conf
BUY
85% Conf

📊 CMG Key Takeaways

Revenue: $3.1B
Net Margin: 9.8%
Free Cash Flow: $471.0M
Current Ratio: 0.92x
Debt/Equity: 0.00x
EPS: $0.23
AI Rating: BUY with 72% confidence
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) receives a BUY rating with 78% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $3.1B, net profit margin of 9.8%, and return on equity (ROE) of 12.6%, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. demonstrates strong fundamentals in the Consumer sector. Below is our complete CMG stock analysis for 2026.

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) a Good Investment?

Claude

Chipotle demonstrates fortress-like balance sheet strength with zero long-term debt and exceptional free cash flow generation ($471M, 15.3% margin), providing financial flexibility and shareholder returns. While revenue growth is modest at 5.4% YoY and working capital metrics are tight, the combination of profitable operations (9.8% net margin), strong operating cash flow, and debt-free capital structure positions the company to navigate competitive pressures and reinvest in growth.

ChatGPT

Chipotle shows strong core fundamentals with double-digit operating and net margins, high returns on equity and assets, and robust free cash flow generation. Its balance sheet is conservative with no long-term debt and adequate liquidity, which supports resilience and continued reinvestment. The main limitation is that profit growth has recently slowed materially versus revenue growth, so execution and margin sustainability matter more from here.

Why Buy Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Stock? CMG Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Zero long-term debt with pristine balance sheet (Debt/Equity: 0.00x)
  • + Exceptional free cash flow generation of $471M with 15.3% FCF margin
  • + Solid profitability with 9.8% net margin and 12.9% operating margin
  • + Strong operating cash flow of $651.4M supporting sustainable business model
  • + Respectable revenue growth of 5.4% YoY in mature restaurant industry
ChatGPT
  • + Strong profitability with 16.2% operating margin and 12.9% net margin
  • + Excellent financial health with zero long-term debt and solid liquidity
  • + High-quality cash generation with $2.11B operating cash flow and $1.45B free cash flow

CMG Stock Risks: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Current ratio of 0.92x and Quick ratio of 0.88x indicate tight short-term liquidity
  • ! Modest EPS growth of only 2.7% YoY suggests limited earnings expansion
  • ! Low ROA of 3.4% indicates underutilized asset base relative to asset size
  • ! Revenue growth rate (5.4%) suggests market saturation and competitive pressures
  • ! Cash position of $246.6M represents only 2.8% of total assets
ChatGPT
  • ! Net income growth has nearly stalled despite revenue growth, which may signal margin pressure or rising costs
  • ! Relatively modest cash balance compared with total liabilities increases reliance on continued steady operating cash flow
  • ! Restaurant fundamentals remain exposed to labor, food, and occupancy cost inflation

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Same-store sales growth and unit expansion rates
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability and working capital trends
  • * Free cash flow maintenance relative to capital expenditure levels
  • * Net margin trends amid labor cost inflation
  • * Current ratio improvement toward 1.0x+ for comfort
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin trend
  • * Free cash flow growth

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$3.1B
Net Income
$302.8M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.23
Free Cash Flow
$471.0M
Total Assets
$8.8B
Cash Position
$246.6M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

CMG Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 12.9%
Net Margin 9.8%
ROE 12.6%
ROA 3.4%
FCF Margin 15.3%

CMG vs Consumer Sector: How Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Compares

How Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. compares to Consumer sector averages

Net Margin
CMG 9.8%
vs
Sector Avg 8.0%
CMG Sector
ROE
CMG 12.6%
vs
Sector Avg 18.0%
CMG Sector
Current Ratio
CMG 0.9x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
CMG Sector
Debt/Equity
CMG 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 0.8x
CMG Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Stock Overvalued? CMG Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Consumer sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
12.6%
Sector avg: 18%
Net Profit Margin
9.8%
Sector avg: 8%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.00x
Sector avg: 0.8x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Balance Sheet: CMG Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.92x
Quick Ratio
0.88x
Debt/Equity
0.00x
Debt/Assets
72.7%
Interest Coverage
N/A
Long-term Debt
$0.0

CMG Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

CMG 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $7.5B, Net Income $350.2M, EPS $12.38. Year 2022: Revenue $8.6B, Net Income $355.8M, EPS $12.52. Year 2023: Revenue $9.9B, Net Income $653.0M, EPS $22.90. Year 2024: Revenue $11.3B, Net Income $899.1M, EPS $0.64. Year 2025: Revenue $11.9B, Net Income $1.2B, EPS $0.89.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 58% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $0.89 reflects profitable operations.

CMG Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
15.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CMG Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $2.9B $302.8M $0.23
Q3 2025 $2.8B $359.3M $0.28
Q2 2025 $3.0B $359.3M $0.32
Q1 2025 $2.7B $359.3M $0.26
Q3 2024 $2.5B $291.6M $0.23
Q2 2024 $2.5B $291.6M $0.25
Q1 2024 $2.4B $291.6M $10.50
Q3 2023 $2.2B $158.3M $9.20

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$651.4M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$701.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$180.3M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

CMG SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CIK: 0001058090)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 30, 2026 10-Q cmg-20260331.htm View →
Apr 29, 2026 8-K cmg-20260429.htm View →
Apr 28, 2026 DEF 14A ny20063214x1_def14a.htm View →
Apr 27, 2026 8-K cmg-20260427.htm View →
Feb 25, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CMG

What is the AI rating for CMG?

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) has a Combined AI Rating of BUY from Claude (BUY) and ChatGPT (BUY) with 78% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CMG's key strengths?

Claude: Zero long-term debt with pristine balance sheet (Debt/Equity: 0.00x). Exceptional free cash flow generation of $471M with 15.3% FCF margin. ChatGPT: Strong profitability with 16.2% operating margin and 12.9% net margin. Excellent financial health with zero long-term debt and solid liquidity.

What are the risks of investing in CMG?

Claude: Current ratio of 0.92x and Quick ratio of 0.88x indicate tight short-term liquidity. Modest EPS growth of only 2.7% YoY suggests limited earnings expansion. ChatGPT: Net income growth has nearly stalled despite revenue growth, which may signal margin pressure or rising costs. Relatively modest cash balance compared with total liabilities increases reliance on continued steady operating cash flow.

What is CMG's revenue and growth?

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reported revenue of $3.1B.

Does CMG pay dividends?

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find CMG SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CIK: 0001058090) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CMG's EPS?

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. has a diluted EPS of $0.23.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is CMG a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. has a BUY rating with 78% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.

Is CMG stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for CMG: ROE of 12.6% (sector avg: 18%), net margin of 9.8% (sector avg: 8%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy CMG stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. a combined BUY rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is CMG's free cash flow?

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.'s operating cash flow is $651.4M, with capital expenditures of $180.3M. FCF margin is 15.3%.

How does CMG compare to other Consumer stocks?

Vs Consumer sector averages: Net margin 9.8% (avg: 8%), ROE 12.6% (avg: 18%), current ratio 0.92 (avg: 1.5).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 6, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI