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Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

VST NYSE Electric Services DE CIK: 0001692819
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 18, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
HOLD
75% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 VST Key Takeaways

Revenue: $17.7B
Net Margin: 5.3%
Free Cash Flow: $1.3B
Current Ratio: 0.78x
Debt/Equity: 3.34x
EPS: $2.18
AI Rating: HOLD with 75% confidence
Vistra Corp. (VST) receives a HOLD rating with 75% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $17.7B, net profit margin of 5.3%, and return on equity (ROE) of 18.5%, Vistra Corp. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Utilities sector. Below is our complete VST stock analysis for 2026.

Is Vistra Corp. (VST) a Good Investment?

Claude

Vistra demonstrates strong operational efficiency with 25.5% net income growth and robust 18.5% ROE, supported by healthy $1.3B free cash flow generation. However, revenue stagnation (0.9% growth), elevated leverage (3.34x Debt/Equity with only 2.6x interest coverage), and deteriorating liquidity metrics (0.78x current ratio) significantly constrain upside potential and increase financial vulnerability.

Why Buy Vistra Corp. Stock? VST Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong net income growth of 25.5% YoY despite flat revenue indicates significant operational efficiency improvements
  • + Healthy free cash flow of $1.3B with 7.4% FCF margin provides capacity for debt service and capital allocation
  • + Excellent ROE of 18.5% demonstrates effective deployment of shareholder capital in a capital-intensive industry

VST Stock Risks: Vistra Corp. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! High leverage (3.34x Debt/Equity) with marginal interest coverage (2.6x) limits financial flexibility and increases default vulnerability to rate shocks
  • ! Revenue growth of only 0.9% YoY raises serious questions about organic growth prospects and market position sustainability
  • ! Deteriorating liquidity (0.78x current ratio, 0.69x quick ratio) indicates working capital deficit and potential refinancing constraints
  • ! Significant EPS dilution (down 68.9% YoY) signals either substantial share issuance or accounting anomalies requiring clarification
  • ! Large debt burden ($17.0B) creates material exposure to rising interest rates in an already low-margin utility business

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Debt/Equity ratio and interest coverage ratio trends - critical indicators of financial stability and refinancing risk
  • * Revenue growth acceleration - must demonstrate organic top-line growth to justify current leverage levels
  • * Free cash flow and current ratio trajectory - essential for assessing debt service sustainability and working capital adequacy

Vistra Corp. (VST) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$17.7B
Net Income
$944.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$2.18
Free Cash Flow
$1.3B
Total Assets
$41.6B
Cash Position
$785.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

VST Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 10.7%
Net Margin 5.3%
ROE 18.5%
ROA 2.3%
FCF Margin 7.4%

VST vs Utilities Sector: How Vistra Corp. Compares

How Vistra Corp. compares to Utilities sector averages

Net Margin
VST 5.3%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
VST Sector
ROE
VST 18.5%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
VST Sector
Current Ratio
VST 0.8x
vs
Sector Avg 0.8x
VST Sector
Debt/Equity
VST 3.3x
vs
Sector Avg 1.4x
VST Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Vistra Corp. Stock Overvalued? VST Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Vistra Corp. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Utilities sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
18.5%
Sector avg: 10%
Net Profit Margin
5.3%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
3.34x
Sector avg: 1.4x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Vistra Corp. Balance Sheet: VST Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.78x
Quick Ratio
0.69x
Debt/Equity
3.34x
Debt/Assets
87.7%
Interest Coverage
2.57x
Long-term Debt
$17.0B

VST Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

VST 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $17.7B, Net Income $928.0M, EPS $1.86. Year 2022: Revenue $17.7B, Net Income $636.0M, EPS $1.30. Year 2023: Revenue $17.7B, Net Income -$1.3B, EPS $-2.69. Year 2024: Revenue $15.6B, Net Income -$1.2B, EPS $-3.26. Year 2025: Revenue $17.6B, Net Income $1.5B, EPS $3.58.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Vistra Corp.'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 1% decline. The most recent EPS of $3.58 reflects profitable operations.

VST Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
7.4%
Free cash flow / Revenue

VST Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Vistra Corp. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $4.3B $652.0M $1.64
Q2 2025 $3.6B $59.0M $-0.11
Q1 2025 $3.2B -$35.0M $-0.24
Q3 2024 $4.3B $502.0M $1.25
Q2 2024 $3.0B $330.0M $0.66
Q1 2024 $3.1B -$35.0M $-0.24
Q3 2023 $4.8B $502.0M $1.25
Q2 2023 $3.0B $476.0M $1.17

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Vistra Corp. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$4.1B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$1.0B
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$2.8B
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$306.0M
Returned to shareholders

VST SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Vistra Corp. (CIK: 0001692819)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 18, 2026 DEF 14A vistra-20260318.htm View →
Mar 12, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773309721.xml View →
Mar 9, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773107270.xml View →
Mar 9, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773106045.xml View →
Mar 9, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773105526.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about VST

What is the AI rating for VST?

Vistra Corp. (VST) has an AI rating of HOLD with 75% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are VST's key strengths?

Claude: Strong net income growth of 25.5% YoY despite flat revenue indicates significant operational efficiency improvements. Healthy free cash flow of $1.3B with 7.4% FCF margin provides capacity for debt service and capital allocation.

What are the risks of investing in VST?

Claude: High leverage (3.34x Debt/Equity) with marginal interest coverage (2.6x) limits financial flexibility and increases default vulnerability to rate shocks. Revenue growth of only 0.9% YoY raises serious questions about organic growth prospects and market position sustainability.

What is VST's revenue and growth?

Vistra Corp. reported revenue of $17.7B.

Does VST pay dividends?

Vistra Corp. pays dividends, with $306.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find VST SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Vistra Corp. (CIK: 0001692819) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is VST's EPS?

Vistra Corp. has a diluted EPS of $2.18.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is VST a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Vistra Corp. has a HOLD rating with 75% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is VST stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for VST: ROE of 18.5% (sector avg: 10%), net margin of 5.3% (sector avg: 12%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.

Should I buy VST stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Vistra Corp. a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is VST's free cash flow?

Vistra Corp.'s operating cash flow is $4.1B, with capital expenditures of $2.8B. FCF margin is 7.4%.

How does VST compare to other Utilities stocks?

Vs Utilities sector averages: Net margin 5.3% (avg: 12%), ROE 18.5% (avg: 10%), current ratio 0.78 (avg: 0.8).

Is Vistra Corp. carrying too much debt?

VST has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34x, which is above the Utilities sector average of 1.4x. Combined with a current ratio below 1, this warrants careful monitoring of the balance sheet.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 18, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI