← Back to All US Stocks

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

UPS NYSE Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) DE CIK: 0001090727
Updated This Month • Analysis: May 7, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
76% Confidence
AGREEMENT
SELL
75% Conf
HOLD
76% Conf

📊 UPS Key Takeaways

Revenue: $21.2B
Net Margin: 4.1%
Free Cash Flow: $1.2B
Current Ratio: 1.21x
Debt/Equity: 1.51x
EPS: $1.02
AI Rating: SELL with 75% confidence
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) receives a SELL rating with 76% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $21.2B, net profit margin of 4.1%, and return on equity (ROE) of 5.5%, United Parcel Service Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Automotive sector. Below is our complete UPS stock analysis for 2026.

Is United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) a Good Investment?

Claude

UPS exhibits concerning fundamental deterioration with declining revenue (-2.6% YoY) and net income (-3.6% YoY), coupled with weak profitability margins (4.1% net margin). The elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51x, anemic returns on capital (5.5% ROE, 1.2% ROA), and tight liquidity metrics present material financial stress.

ChatGPT

UPS shows solid underlying profitability and cash generation, with 8.9% operating margin, $8.45B of operating cash flow, and strong interest coverage of 40.3x despite a softer revenue backdrop. However, the latest period reflects modest top-line, earnings, and EPS declines, while leverage remains meaningful at 1.45x debt-to-equity, suggesting a fundamentally stable but currently low-growth business with limited margin of safety if volumes remain pressured.

Why Buy United Parcel Service Inc. Stock? UPS Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Positive operating cash flow generation at $2.2B demonstrates ongoing business viability
  • + Adequate interest coverage of 6.5x provides debt service cushion
  • + Substantial asset base of $71.8B reflects established market position and infrastructure
ChatGPT
  • + Strong cash generation with $4.76B of free cash flow and a 5.4% FCF margin
  • + Healthy profitability profile with 8.9% operating margin, 6.3% net margin, and 34.3% ROE
  • + Sound near-term liquidity and debt service capacity, supported by 1.22x current ratio and 40.3x interest coverage

UPS Stock Risks: United Parcel Service Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Revenue and net income declining YoY indicating market share loss or volume contraction
  • ! High leverage with 1.51x debt-to-equity limiting financial flexibility and increasing refinancing risk
  • ! Weak capital efficiency with 5.5% ROE and 1.2% ROA suggests poor asset utilization despite $71.8B invested
  • ! Thin 4.1% net margin indicates structural pricing or cost control challenges in competitive logistics sector
  • ! Tight liquidity with 1.21x current ratio constrains operational flexibility
ChatGPT
  • ! Revenue, net income, and diluted EPS all declined year over year, indicating weak near-term growth quality
  • ! Leverage is elevated with $23.59B of long-term debt and 1.45x debt-to-equity
  • ! Margin pressure could worsen if package volumes or pricing remain soft, especially given the absence of gross margin detail

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Revenue growth stabilization and return to positive YoY growth
  • * Operating margin expansion through cost discipline or pricing power
  • * Free cash flow sustainability relative to declining profitability
  • * Debt reduction progress and debt-to-equity ratio trajectory
  • * Return on equity improvement and capital efficiency metrics
ChatGPT
  • * Revenue growth and operating margin trend
  • * Free cash flow generation relative to capital expenditures and debt levels

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$21.2B
Net Income
$864.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$1.02
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Total Assets
$71.8B
Cash Position
$5.8B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

United Parcel Service Inc. presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

UPS Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 6.0%
Net Margin 4.1%
ROE 5.5%
ROA 1.2%
FCF Margin 5.6%

UPS vs Automotive Sector: How United Parcel Service Inc. Compares

How United Parcel Service Inc. compares to Automotive sector averages

Net Margin
UPS 4.1%
vs
Sector Avg 6.0%
UPS Sector
ROE
UPS 5.5%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
UPS Sector
Current Ratio
UPS 1.2x
vs
Sector Avg 1.2x
UPS Sector
Debt/Equity
UPS 1.5x
vs
Sector Avg 1.0x
UPS Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is United Parcel Service Inc. Stock Overvalued? UPS Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, United Parcel Service Inc. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Automotive sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
5.5%
Sector avg: 12%
Net Profit Margin
4.1%
Sector avg: 6%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
1.51x
Sector avg: 1x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

United Parcel Service Inc. Balance Sheet: UPS Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.21x
Quick Ratio
1.16x
Debt/Equity
1.51x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
6.50x
Long-term Debt
$23.7B

UPS Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

UPS 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $97.3B, Net Income $4.4B, EPS $5.11. Year 2022: Revenue $100.3B, Net Income $1.3B, EPS $1.54. Year 2023: Revenue $100.3B, Net Income $12.9B, EPS $14.68. Year 2024: Revenue $100.3B, Net Income $11.5B, EPS $13.20. Year 2025: Revenue $91.1B, Net Income $6.7B, EPS $7.80.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: United Parcel Service Inc.'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 6% decline. The most recent EPS of $7.80 reflects profitable operations.

UPS Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
5.6%
Free cash flow / Revenue

UPS Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for United Parcel Service Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $21.2B $864.0M $1.02
Q3 2025 $21.4B $3.8B $1.55
Q2 2025 $21.2B $2.5B $1.51
Q1 2025 $21.5B $1.1B $1.30
Q3 2024 $21.1B $1.1B $1.31
Q2 2024 $21.8B $1.4B $1.65
Q1 2024 $21.7B $1.1B $1.30
Q3 2023 $21.1B $1.1B $1.31

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

United Parcel Service Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$2.2B
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$1.0B
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$1.4B
Returned to shareholders

UPS SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for United Parcel Service Inc. (CIK: 0001090727)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
May 15, 2026 4 xslF345X06/doc4.xml View →
May 15, 2026 4 xslF345X06/doc4.xml View →
May 15, 2026 4 xslF345X06/doc4.xml View →
May 15, 2026 4 xslF345X06/doc4.xml View →
May 15, 2026 4 xslF345X06/doc4.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about UPS

What is the AI rating for UPS?

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 76% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are UPS's key strengths?

Claude: Positive operating cash flow generation at $2.2B demonstrates ongoing business viability. Adequate interest coverage of 6.5x provides debt service cushion. ChatGPT: Strong cash generation with $4.76B of free cash flow and a 5.4% FCF margin. Healthy profitability profile with 8.9% operating margin, 6.3% net margin, and 34.3% ROE.

What are the risks of investing in UPS?

Claude: Revenue and net income declining YoY indicating market share loss or volume contraction. High leverage with 1.51x debt-to-equity limiting financial flexibility and increasing refinancing risk. ChatGPT: Revenue, net income, and diluted EPS all declined year over year, indicating weak near-term growth quality. Leverage is elevated with $23.59B of long-term debt and 1.45x debt-to-equity.

What is UPS's revenue and growth?

United Parcel Service Inc. reported revenue of $21.2B.

Does UPS pay dividends?

United Parcel Service Inc. pays dividends, with $1,352.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find UPS SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for United Parcel Service Inc. (CIK: 0001090727) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is UPS's EPS?

United Parcel Service Inc. has a diluted EPS of $1.02.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is UPS a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, United Parcel Service Inc. has a SELL rating with 76% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is UPS stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for UPS: ROE of 5.5% (sector avg: 12%), net margin of 4.1% (sector avg: 6%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy UPS stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives United Parcel Service Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is UPS's free cash flow?

United Parcel Service Inc.'s operating cash flow is $2.2B, with capital expenditures of $1.0B. FCF margin is 5.6%.

How does UPS compare to other Automotive stocks?

Vs Automotive sector averages: Net margin 4.1% (avg: 6%), ROE 5.5% (avg: 12%), current ratio 1.21 (avg: 1.2).

Is United Parcel Service Inc. carrying too much debt?

UPS has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51x, which is above the Automotive sector average of 1x. However, the current ratio of 1.21 suggests adequate short-term liquidity.

Top Rated Stocks
AAPL 92% MSFT 92% FAST 92% DT 92% DECK 92% DAVEW 92% ANET 88% RDDT 88% KNSL 88% MGRE 88%
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 7, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI