← Back to All US Stocks

NOG Stock Analysis 2026 - NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. AI Rating

NOG NYSE Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas CIK: 0001104485
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 3, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
HOLD
62% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 NOG Key Takeaways

Revenue: $2.5B
Net Margin: 1.6%
Free Cash Flow: $1.5B
Current Ratio: 1.09x
Debt/Equity: 1.13x
EPS: $0.39
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence

Is NOG a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis

Claude

Northern Oil & Gas demonstrates strong cash generation with $1.5B operating cash flow and impressive 60.8% FCF margin, supported by 11.2% revenue growth. However, profitability metrics are weak with only 1.6% net margin and 1.8% ROE, while the capital structure shows elevated leverage at 1.13x debt-to-equity with $2.4B long-term debt against modest $14.3M cash, raising refinancing risks in commodity downturns.

Why Buy NOG? Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Exceptional free cash flow generation of $1.5B with 60.8% FCF margin indicating high-quality earnings conversion
  • + Revenue growth of 11.2% YoY demonstrating market demand recovery in energy sector
  • + Adequate interest coverage ratio of 6.5x suggesting manageable debt service obligations

NOG Investment Risks to Consider

Claude
  • ! Severe profitability compression with net margin of only 1.6% and ROE of 1.8% indicating poor capital efficiency
  • ! High financial leverage with debt-to-equity of 1.13x and $2.4B long-term debt against minimal $14.3M cash reserves creates refinancing vulnerability
  • ! Volatile earnings with diluted EPS declining 92.4% YoY despite flat net income, suggesting operational instability and commodity price exposure

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Net profit margin expansion trajectory and operational leverage improvements
  • * Cash balance trend and debt reduction trajectory relative to commodity price movements
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability and capital expenditure requirements as production scales

NOG Financial Metrics

Revenue
$2.5B
Net Income
$38.8M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.39
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Total Assets
$5.4B
Cash Position
$14.3M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 60.8% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments.

NOG Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 9.9%
Net Margin 1.6%
ROE 1.8%
ROA 0.7%
FCF Margin 60.8%

NOG vs Energy Sector

How NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. compares to Energy sector averages

Net Margin
NOG 1.6%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
NOG Sector
ROE
NOG 1.8%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
NOG Sector
Current Ratio
NOG 1.1x
vs
Sector Avg 1.3x
NOG Sector
Debt/Equity
NOG 1.1x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
NOG Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is NOG Overvalued or Undervalued?

Based on fundamental analysis, NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Energy sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
1.8%
Sector avg: 14%
Net Profit Margin
1.6%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
1.13x
Sector avg: 0.6x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

NOG Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.09x
Quick Ratio
1.09x
Debt/Equity
1.13x
Debt/Assets
60.7%
Interest Coverage
6.48x
Long-term Debt
$2.4B

NOG 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis

NOG 5-year financial data: Year 2022: Revenue $2.0B, Net Income -$906.0M, EPS $-21.55.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC.'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 0% decline. The most recent EPS of $10.03 reflects profitable operations.

NOG Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
60.8%
Free cash flow / Revenue

NOG Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $556.6M $11.6M $1.10
Q2 2025 $560.8M $11.6M $1.00
Q1 2025 $396.3M $11.6M $0.11
Q3 2024 $314.0M $11.6M $0.28
Q2 2024 $476.6M $11.6M $1.36
Q1 2024 $396.3M $11.6M $0.11
Q3 2023 $314.0M $26.1M $0.28
Q2 2023 $408.5M $44.7M $0.17

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

NOG Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$1.5B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$57.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$1.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$173.4M
Returned to shareholders

NOG SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. (CIK: 0001104485)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 1, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775074541.xml View →
Apr 1, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775074533.xml View →
Apr 1, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775074525.xml View →
Apr 1, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775074508.xml View →
Apr 1, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775074499.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about NOG

What is the AI rating for NOG?

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. (NOG) has an AI rating of HOLD with 62% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are NOG's key strengths?

Claude: Exceptional free cash flow generation of $1.5B with 60.8% FCF margin indicating high-quality earnings conversion. Revenue growth of 11.2% YoY demonstrating market demand recovery in energy sector.

What are the risks of investing in NOG?

Claude: Severe profitability compression with net margin of only 1.6% and ROE of 1.8% indicating poor capital efficiency. High financial leverage with debt-to-equity of 1.13x and $2.4B long-term debt against minimal $14.3M cash reserves creates refinancing vulnerability.

What is NOG's revenue and growth?

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. reported revenue of $2.5B.

Does NOG pay dividends?

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. pays dividends, with $173.4M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find NOG SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. (CIK: 0001104485) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is NOG's EPS?

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. has a diluted EPS of $0.39.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is NOG a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. has a HOLD rating with 62% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is NOG stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for NOG: ROE of 1.8% (sector avg: 14%), net margin of 1.6% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy NOG stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is NOG's free cash flow?

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC.'s operating cash flow is $1.5B, with capital expenditures of $1.0M. FCF margin is 60.8%.

How does NOG compare to other Energy stocks?

Vs Energy sector averages: Net margin 1.6% (avg: 12%), ROE 1.8% (avg: 14%), current ratio 1.09 (avg: 1.3).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 3, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI