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MTG Stock Analysis 2026 - MGIC INVESTMENT CORP AI Rating

MTG NYSE Surety Insurance WI CIK: 0000876437
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 2, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
STRONG BUY
85% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 MTG Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.2B
Net Margin: 60.8%
Free Cash Flow: $851.8M
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 0.12x
EPS: $3.14
AI Rating: STRONG BUY with 85% confidence

Is MTG a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis

Claude

MGIC Investment Corp demonstrates exceptional financial health with industry-leading profitability margins (60.8% net margin, 76.5% operating margin) and strong cash generation (70.2% FCF margin). The company maintains fortress-like balance sheet strength with minimal leverage (0.12x debt/equity) and excellent interest coverage (26.1x), positioning it well to navigate insurance cycles while returning capital to shareholders.

Why Buy MTG? Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Exceptional profitability margins with 60.8% net margin and 76.5% operating margin, indicating strong pricing power and operational efficiency
  • + Outstanding cash generation with $851.8M free cash flow and 70.2% FCF margin, demonstrating sustainable capital generation
  • + Conservative balance sheet with 0.12x debt/equity ratio and $369M cash, providing substantial financial flexibility and downside protection
  • + Strong return on equity (14.3%) and ROA (11.1%) indicating efficient capital deployment
  • + Solid interest coverage ratio of 26.1x with minimal debt burden relative to operating income

MTG Investment Risks to Consider

Claude
  • ! Revenue growth remains flat at +0.5% YoY, suggesting mature market position or potential housing market headwinds affecting mortgage insurance demand
  • ! Net income declined 3.2% YoY despite EPS growth, indicating share buybacks masking underlying earnings softness and potential margin compression
  • ! Significant insider activity (45 Form 4 filings in 90 days) warrants monitoring for sentiment or structural changes
  • ! Surety insurance sector cyclicality poses risk; profitability highly dependent on claim experience and mortgage origination volumes

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Revenue growth acceleration - monitor mortgage insurance market demand trends and housing originations
  • * Net income trend and margin stability - track if operating leverage holds amid potential underwriting cycle shifts
  • * Combined ratio and claims experience - key metric for insurance underwriting profitability
  • * Cash deployment strategy - monitor capital allocation between dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction

MTG Financial Metrics

Revenue
$1.2B
Net Income
$738.3M
EPS (Diluted)
$3.14
Free Cash Flow
$851.8M
Total Assets
$6.6B
Cash Position
$369.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 70.2% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

MTG Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 76.5%
Net Margin 60.8%
ROE 14.3%
ROA 11.1%
FCF Margin 70.2%

MTG vs Finance Sector

How MGIC INVESTMENT CORP compares to Finance sector averages

Net Margin
MTG 60.8%
vs
Sector Avg 25.0%
MTG Sector
ROE
MTG 14.3%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
MTG Sector
Current Ratio
MTG 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.2x
MTG Sector
Debt/Equity
MTG 0.1x
vs
Sector Avg 2.0x
MTG Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is MTG Overvalued or Undervalued?

Based on fundamental analysis, MGIC INVESTMENT CORP appears fundamentally strong relative to the Finance sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
14.3%
Sector avg: 12%
Net Profit Margin
60.8%
Sector avg: 25%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.12x
Sector avg: 2x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

MTG Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
0.12x
Debt/Assets
22.5%
Interest Coverage
26.08x
Long-term Debt
$643.2M

MTG 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis

MTG 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $673.8M, EPS $1.85. Year 2022: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $446.1M, EPS $1.29. Year 2023: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $635.0M, EPS $1.85. Year 2024: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $865.3M, EPS $2.79. Year 2025: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $712.9M, EPS $2.49.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: MGIC INVESTMENT CORP's revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 0% decline. The most recent EPS of $2.49 reflects profitable operations.

MTG Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
70.2%
Free cash flow / Revenue

MTG Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for MGIC INVESTMENT CORP including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $304.5M $191.1M $0.77
Q2 2025 $304.2M $192.5M $0.77
Q1 2025 $294.4M $174.1M $0.64
Q3 2024 $296.5M $182.8M $0.64
Q2 2024 $290.7M $191.1M $0.66
Q1 2024 $284.0M $154.5M $0.53
Q3 2023 $292.8M $182.8M $0.64
Q2 2023 $290.7M $191.1M $0.66

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

MTG Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$852.8M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$788.6M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$1.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$132.5M
Returned to shareholders

MTG SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for MGIC INVESTMENT CORP (CIK: 0000876437)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 20, 2026 DEF 14A mtg-20260319.htm View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773172941.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773172934.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773172925.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773172919.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about MTG

What is the AI rating for MTG?

MGIC INVESTMENT CORP (MTG) has an AI rating of STRONG BUY with 85% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are MTG's key strengths?

Claude: Exceptional profitability margins with 60.8% net margin and 76.5% operating margin, indicating strong pricing power and operational efficiency. Outstanding cash generation with $851.8M free cash flow and 70.2% FCF margin, demonstrating sustainable capital generation.

What are the risks of investing in MTG?

Claude: Revenue growth remains flat at +0.5% YoY, suggesting mature market position or potential housing market headwinds affecting mortgage insurance demand. Net income declined 3.2% YoY despite EPS growth, indicating share buybacks masking underlying earnings softness and potential margin compression.

What is MTG's revenue and growth?

MGIC INVESTMENT CORP reported revenue of $1.2B.

Does MTG pay dividends?

MGIC INVESTMENT CORP pays dividends, with $132.5M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find MTG SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for MGIC INVESTMENT CORP (CIK: 0000876437) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is MTG's EPS?

MGIC INVESTMENT CORP has a diluted EPS of $3.14.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is MTG a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, MGIC INVESTMENT CORP has a STRONG BUY rating with 85% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.

Is MTG stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for MTG: ROE of 14.3% (sector avg: 12%), net margin of 60.8% (sector avg: 25%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.

Should I buy MTG stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives MGIC INVESTMENT CORP a combined STRONG BUY rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is MTG's free cash flow?

MGIC INVESTMENT CORP's operating cash flow is $852.8M, with capital expenditures of $1.0M. FCF margin is 70.2%.

How does MTG compare to other Finance stocks?

Vs Finance sector averages: Net margin 60.8% (avg: 25%), ROE 14.3% (avg: 12%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.2).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 2, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI