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ST JOE Co (JOE) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

JOE NYSE Land Subdividers & Developers (No Cemeteries) FL CIK: 0000745308
Updated This Month • Analysis: May 6, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
BUY
66% Confidence
AGREEMENT
HOLD
58% Conf
BUY
74% Conf

📊 JOE Key Takeaways

Revenue: $99.0M
Net Margin: 14.1%
Free Cash Flow: $40.2M
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 0.50x
EPS: $0.24
AI Rating: HOLD with 58% confidence
ST JOE Co (JOE) receives a BUY rating with 66% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $99.0M, net profit margin of 14.1%, and return on equity (ROE) of 1.8%, ST JOE Co demonstrates strong fundamentals in the Real Estate sector. Below is our complete JOE stock analysis for 2026.

Is ST JOE Co (JOE) a Good Investment?

Claude

ST Joe demonstrates strong top-line growth (+27.4% YoY) and exceptional free cash flow generation (40.6% margin), but concerning capital returns (ROE 1.8%, ROA 0.9%) and flat net income growth signal poor asset efficiency and margin compression. Tight interest coverage (2.1x) in a cyclical real estate development sector limits financial flexibility for downturns.

ChatGPT

St. Joe demonstrates strong fundamentals with 27% revenue growth, robust margins (28.5% operating, 22.5% net), and excellent cash generation (36% FCF margin) supported by moderate leverage and high interest coverage. While net income was flat YoY, EPS rose sharply and the balance sheet plus cash flow provide ample capacity to fund development and capital returns. Execution and cyclicality risks remain, but the quality of earnings and balance sheet strength support a positive outlook.

Why Buy ST JOE Co Stock? JOE Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong revenue growth of 27.4% YoY demonstrates market demand and business expansion
  • + Exceptional free cash flow margin of 40.6% with $40.2M FCF generation indicates strong liquidity
  • + Moderate leverage at 0.50x debt/equity ratio provides balance sheet stability
  • + Operating margin of 18.4% shows reasonable operational profitability
ChatGPT
  • + High profitability (gross/operating/net margins) with solid ROE
  • + Strong cash generation and FCF conversion
  • + Moderate leverage with very strong interest coverage and ample liquidity

JOE Stock Risks: ST JOE Co Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Critically low ROE (1.8%) and ROA (0.9%) indicate severe capital inefficiency despite profitability
  • ! Net income flat YoY amid 27.4% revenue growth signals margin compression or cost inflation
  • ! Interest coverage of 2.1x is dangerously tight; minimal cushion for revenue decline or rate increases
  • ! Land development is cyclical; unclear if revenue growth is sustainable or driven by favorable cycle
  • ! Very low capex (2% of revenue) suggests either mature assets or underinvestment in growth
ChatGPT
  • ! Cyclicality and interest-rate sensitivity in real estate/hospitality
  • ! Geographic concentration and weather/regulatory exposure in Florida
  • ! Earnings/margin volatility from project timing; flat YoY net income

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Return on equity trend—must improve toward 8%+ to justify capital base
  • * Interest coverage ratio—needs to exceed 3.0x for financial safety
  • * Net margin trajectory—must expand beyond flat growth to validate scale benefits
  • * Asset base utilization—clarify composition and productivity of $1.5B balance sheet
ChatGPT
  • * Gross and operating margin trend
  • * Backlog/lot sales pace and hospitality occupancy/ADR

ST JOE Co (JOE) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$99.0M
Net Income
$13.9M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.24
Free Cash Flow
$40.2M
Total Assets
$1.5B
Cash Position
$136.3M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 40.6% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

JOE Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 38.3%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Net Margin 14.1%
ROE 1.8%
ROA 0.9%
FCF Margin 40.6%

JOE vs Real Estate Sector: How ST JOE Co Compares

How ST JOE Co compares to Real Estate sector averages

Net Margin
JOE 14.1%
vs
Sector Avg 20.0%
JOE Sector
ROE
JOE 1.8%
vs
Sector Avg 8.0%
JOE Sector
Current Ratio
JOE 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
JOE Sector
Debt/Equity
JOE 0.5x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
JOE Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is ST JOE Co Stock Overvalued? JOE Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, ST JOE Co has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Real Estate sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
1.8%
Sector avg: 8%
Net Profit Margin
14.1%
Sector avg: 20%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.50x
Sector avg: 1.5x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

ST JOE Co Balance Sheet: JOE Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
0.50x
Debt/Assets
49.0%
Interest Coverage
2.13x
Long-term Debt
$380.4M

JOE Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

JOE 5-year financial data: Year 2020: Revenue $160.6M, Net Income $32.4M, EPS N/A. Year 2021: Revenue $267.0M, Net Income $26.8M, EPS $0.45. Year 2023: Revenue $389.3M, Net Income $74.6M, EPS $1.27. Year 2024: Revenue $402.7M, Net Income $70.9M, EPS $1.21. Year 2025: Revenue $513.2M, Net Income $77.7M, EPS $1.33.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: ST JOE Co's revenue has grown significantly by 220% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $1.33 reflects profitable operations.

JOE Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
40.6%
Free cash flow / Revenue

JOE Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for ST JOE Co including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $94.2M $13.9M $0.24
Q3 2025 $99.0M $16.8M $0.29
Q2 2025 $111.6M $24.5M $0.42
Q1 2025 $87.8M $13.9M $0.24
Q3 2024 $99.0M $16.8M $0.29
Q2 2024 $111.6M $24.5M $0.42
Q1 2024 $73.0M $10.4M $0.18
Q3 2023 $57.6M $12.3M $0.21

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

ST JOE Co Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$42.2M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$5.2M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$2.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$9.2M
Returned to shareholders

JOE SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for ST JOE Co (CIK: 0000745308)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
May 14, 2026 8-K joe-20260512x8k.htm View →
May 12, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
May 12, 2026 8-K joe-20260512x8k.htm View →
May 7, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
May 4, 2026 8-K joe-20260504x8k.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about JOE

What is the AI rating for JOE?

ST JOE Co (JOE) has a Combined AI Rating of BUY from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (BUY) with 66% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are JOE's key strengths?

Claude: Strong revenue growth of 27.4% YoY demonstrates market demand and business expansion. Exceptional free cash flow margin of 40.6% with $40.2M FCF generation indicates strong liquidity. ChatGPT: High profitability (gross/operating/net margins) with solid ROE. Strong cash generation and FCF conversion.

What are the risks of investing in JOE?

Claude: Critically low ROE (1.8%) and ROA (0.9%) indicate severe capital inefficiency despite profitability. Net income flat YoY amid 27.4% revenue growth signals margin compression or cost inflation. ChatGPT: Cyclicality and interest-rate sensitivity in real estate/hospitality. Geographic concentration and weather/regulatory exposure in Florida.

What is JOE's revenue and growth?

ST JOE Co reported revenue of $99.0M.

Does JOE pay dividends?

ST JOE Co pays dividends, with $9.2M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find JOE SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for ST JOE Co (CIK: 0000745308) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is JOE's EPS?

ST JOE Co has a diluted EPS of $0.24.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is JOE a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, ST JOE Co has a BUY rating with 66% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.

Is JOE stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for JOE: ROE of 1.8% (sector avg: 8%), net margin of 14.1% (sector avg: 20%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy JOE stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives ST JOE Co a combined BUY rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is JOE's free cash flow?

ST JOE Co's operating cash flow is $42.2M, with capital expenditures of $2.0M. FCF margin is 40.6%.

How does JOE compare to other Real Estate stocks?

Vs Real Estate sector averages: Net margin 14.1% (avg: 20%), ROE 1.8% (avg: 8%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.5).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 6, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI