📊 JOE Key Takeaways
Is JOE a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis
ST JOE demonstrates exceptional operational efficiency with 43.1% gross margins and 28.5% operating margins while generating strong free cash flow of $186.6M (36.4% FCF margin). The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with moderate 0.51x debt-to-equity leverage and commanding 17.1x interest coverage, supported by 27.4% revenue growth. However, net income remained flat year-over-year despite strong revenue expansion, signaling potential margin compression or operational headwinds that warrant monitoring before aggressive accumulation.
Why Buy JOE? Key Strengths
- Exceptional profitability with 43.1% gross margin and 28.5% operating margin indicating strong pricing power and operational control
- Outstanding free cash flow generation of $186.6M with 36.4% FCF margin on minimal $4.1M capex, demonstrating asset-light business model
- Healthy balance sheet with moderate 0.51x debt-to-equity ratio and fortress-like 17.1x interest coverage ratio indicating low financial distress risk
- Strong 27.4% revenue growth with solid 15.1% ROE demonstrating effective capital deployment
JOE Investment Risks to Consider
- Net income flat year-over-year despite 27.4% revenue growth signals margin compression, potential operational deleverage, or unrecognized cost pressures
- Real estate and land development sector exposure creates cyclical sensitivity to housing demand, interest rates, and economic downturns
- EPS growth (56.7%) significantly outpacing net income growth (0.0%) suggests aggressive share repurchases masking underlying earnings weakness
- Long-term debt of $391.2M represents substantial fixed obligations that could constrain financial flexibility in a downturn
- Land development business inherently exposed to economic cycles, credit availability, and consumer discretionary spending patterns
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating margin trend - monitor for margin expansion or compression as revenue scales to validate profitability sustainability
- Net income growth acceleration - critical to confirm revenue growth translates to bottom-line earnings expansion
- Free cash flow maintenance - ensure FCF margins remain above 35% as business grows to validate capital efficiency
- Debt trajectory and leverage ratios - track absolute debt levels and D/E ratio to ensure manageable financial structure
- Gross margin stability - watch for pricing pressure or cost inflation that could compress contribution margins
JOE Financial Metrics
💡 AI Analyst Insight
The 36.4% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.
JOE Profitability Ratios
JOE vs Default Sector
How ST JOE Co compares to Default sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is JOE Overvalued or Undervalued?
Based on fundamental analysis, ST JOE Co has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Default sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
JOE Balance Sheet & Liquidity
JOE 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis
5-Year Trend Summary: ST JOE Co's revenue has grown significantly by 220% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $1.33 reflects profitable operations.
JOE Growth Metrics (YoY)
JOE Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $99.0M | $16.8M | $0.29 |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6M | $24.5M | $0.42 |
| Q1 2025 | $87.8M | $13.9M | $0.24 |
| Q3 2024 | $99.0M | $16.8M | $0.29 |
| Q2 2024 | $111.6M | $24.5M | $0.42 |
| Q1 2024 | $73.0M | $10.4M | $0.18 |
| Q3 2023 | $57.6M | $12.3M | $0.21 |
| Q2 2023 | $68.3M | $17.0M | $0.29 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
JOE Capital Allocation
JOE SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for ST JOE Co (CIK: 0000745308)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about JOE
What is the AI rating for JOE?
ST JOE Co (JOE) has an AI rating of BUY with 74% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are JOE's key strengths?
Claude: Exceptional profitability with 43.1% gross margin and 28.5% operating margin indicating strong pricing power and operational control. Outstanding free cash flow generation of $186.6M with 36.4% FCF margin on minimal $4.1M capex, demonstrating asset-light business model.
What are the risks of investing in JOE?
Claude: Net income flat year-over-year despite 27.4% revenue growth signals margin compression, potential operational deleverage, or unrecognized cost pressures. Real estate and land development sector exposure creates cyclical sensitivity to housing demand, interest rates, and economic downturns.
What is JOE's revenue and growth?
ST JOE Co reported revenue of $513.2M.
Does JOE pay dividends?
ST JOE Co pays dividends, with $33.6M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find JOE SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for ST JOE Co (CIK: 0000745308) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is JOE's EPS?
ST JOE Co has a diluted EPS of $1.99.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is JOE a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, ST JOE Co has a BUY rating with 74% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.
Is JOE stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for JOE: ROE of 15.1% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 22.5% (sector avg: 12%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.
Should I buy JOE stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives ST JOE Co a combined BUY rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is JOE's free cash flow?
ST JOE Co's operating cash flow is $190.7M, with capital expenditures of $4.1M. FCF margin is 36.4%.
How does JOE compare to other Default stocks?
Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 22.5% (avg: 12%), ROE 15.1% (avg: 15%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.8).