📊 HCC Key Takeaways
Is HCC a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis
Warrior Met Coal exhibits severe operational deterioration with net income collapsing 77.3% YoY and revenue declining 14.1%, while generating negative free cash flow of -$81.6M despite positive operating cash flow. The company is destroying shareholder value with poor returns on equity (2.7%) and assets (2.0%), and unsustainable capital intensity where capex exceeds operating cash generation.
Why Buy HCC? Key Strengths
- Strong balance sheet with minimal leverage (Debt/Equity of 0.07x) providing financial flexibility
- Robust liquidity position with 3.19x current ratio and $300M cash ensuring near-term solvency
- Excellent interest coverage ratio of 40.8x indicating very low default risk on existing debt obligations
HCC Investment Risks to Consider
- Negative free cash flow of -$81.6M and unsustainable capex spending ($310.8M) exceeding operating cash flow ($229.2M)
- Catastrophic profitability collapse with net income down 77.3% YoY and revenue contracting 14.1% indicating structural business deterioration
- Extremely thin gross margins of 0.7% with weak returns on equity (2.7%) and assets (2.0%) demonstrating poor capital efficiency and competitive positioning
Key Metrics to Watch
- Free Cash Flow trend and capex discipline - whether the company can stabilize or achieve positive FCF
- Revenue stabilization - whether the 14.1% YoY decline bottoms or continues contracting
- Gross margin trajectory - whether the 0.7% margins expand significantly indicating improved pricing power or cost structure
HCC Financial Metrics
💡 AI Analyst Insight
Strong liquidity with a 3.19x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.
HCC Profitability Ratios
HCC vs Default Sector
How WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. compares to Default sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is HCC Overvalued or Undervalued?
Based on fundamental analysis, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Default sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
HCC Balance Sheet & Liquidity
HCC 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis
5-Year Trend Summary: WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.'s revenue has grown significantly by 32% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $9.20 reflects profitable operations.
HCC Growth Metrics (YoY)
HCC Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $327.7M | $34.0M | $0.65 |
| Q2 2025 | $297.5M | -$2.6M | $-0.05 |
| Q1 2025 | $299.9M | -$8.2M | $-0.16 |
| Q3 2024 | $327.7M | $41.8M | $0.80 |
| Q2 2024 | $379.7M | $70.7M | $1.35 |
| Q1 2024 | $503.5M | $137.0M | $2.62 |
| Q3 2023 | $390.2M | $85.4M | $1.64 |
| Q2 2023 | $379.7M | $82.1M | $1.58 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
HCC Capital Allocation
HCC SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (CIK: 0001691303)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about HCC
What is the AI rating for HCC?
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) has an AI rating of SELL with 78% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are HCC's key strengths?
Claude: Strong balance sheet with minimal leverage (Debt/Equity of 0.07x) providing financial flexibility. Robust liquidity position with 3.19x current ratio and $300M cash ensuring near-term solvency.
What are the risks of investing in HCC?
Claude: Negative free cash flow of -$81.6M and unsustainable capex spending ($310.8M) exceeding operating cash flow ($229.2M). Catastrophic profitability collapse with net income down 77.3% YoY and revenue contracting 14.1% indicating structural business deterioration.
What is HCC's revenue and growth?
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. reported revenue of $1.3B.
Does HCC pay dividends?
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. pays dividends, with $17.8M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find HCC SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (CIK: 0001691303) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is HCC's EPS?
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. has a diluted EPS of $1.08.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is HCC a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. has a SELL rating with 78% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.
Is HCC stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for HCC: ROE of 2.7% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 4.4% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.
Should I buy HCC stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is HCC's free cash flow?
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.'s operating cash flow is $229.2M, with capital expenditures of $310.8M. FCF margin is -6.2%.
How does HCC compare to other Default stocks?
Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 4.4% (avg: 12%), ROE 2.7% (avg: 15%), current ratio 3.19 (avg: 1.8).