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CSX Stock Analysis - CSX CORP AI Rating

CSX Nasdaq Railroads, Line-Haul Operating VA CIK: 0000277948
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 23, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
AI Rating
BUY
72% Confidence

📊 CSX Key Takeaways

Revenue: $14.1B
Net Margin: 20.5%
Free Cash Flow: $1.7B
Current Ratio: 0.81x
Debt/Equity: 1.38x
EPS: $1.54
AI Rating: BUY with 72% confidence

Investment Thesis

CSX demonstrates robust operational profitability with a 32.1% operating margin and strong interest coverage of 30.3x, indicating excellent ability to service debt. However, declining revenues (-3.1% YoY) and net income (-16.7% YoY) signal near-term headwinds in demand, though the company maintains solid cash generation with $1.7B free cash flow and healthy FCF margin of 12.1%.

CSX Strengths

  • + Exceptional operating margin of 32.1% demonstrates pricing power and operational efficiency in the railroad industry
  • + Strong interest coverage ratio of 30.3x provides substantial debt servicing cushion despite leverage
  • + Solid free cash flow generation of $1.7B supports capital investments ($2.9B capex) and shareholder returns
  • + Return on equity of 22% reflects efficient capital deployment and profitability relative to shareholder base
  • + High insider activity with 43 Form 4 filings suggests management confidence in business fundamentals

CSX Risks

  • ! Revenue decline of 3.1% YoY indicates weakening freight demand in the transportation sector
  • ! Net income fell 16.7% YoY, outpacing revenue decline and suggesting margin compression or expense pressures
  • ! Current ratio of 0.81x signals tight liquidity and potential short-term working capital constraints
  • ! High leverage with debt-to-equity of 1.38x and long-term debt of $18.2B limits financial flexibility
  • ! Capital-intensive business model requires sustained high capex spending ($2.9B annually) to maintain competitive position

Key Metrics to Watch

CSX Financial Metrics

Revenue
$14.1B
Net Income
$2.9B
EPS (Diluted)
$1.54
Free Cash Flow
$1.7B
Total Assets
$43.7B
Cash Position
$670.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

CSX Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 32.1%
Net Margin 20.5%
ROE 22.0%
ROA 6.6%
FCF Margin 12.1%

CSX vs Default Sector

How CSX CORP compares to Default sector averages

Net Margin
CSX 20.5%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
CSX Sector
ROE
CSX 22.0%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
CSX Sector
Current Ratio
CSX 0.8x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
CSX Sector
Debt/Equity
CSX 1.4x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
CSX Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

CSX Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.81x
Quick Ratio
0.81x
Debt/Equity
1.38x
Debt/Assets
69.9%
Interest Coverage
30.34x
Long-term Debt
$18.2B

CSX 5-Year Financial Trend

CSX 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $12.5B, Net Income $3.3B, EPS $1.39. Year 2022: Revenue $14.9B, Net Income $2.8B, EPS $1.20. Year 2023: Revenue $14.9B, Net Income $3.8B, EPS $1.68. Year 2024: Revenue $14.9B, Net Income $4.1B, EPS $1.92. Year 2025: Revenue $14.7B, Net Income $3.7B, EPS $1.82.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: CSX CORP's revenue has grown significantly by 17% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $1.82 reflects profitable operations.

CSX Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
12.1%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CSX Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for CSX CORP including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $3.6B $646.0M $0.37
Q2 2025 $3.6B $646.0M $0.44
Q1 2025 $3.4B $646.0M $0.34
Q3 2024 $3.6B $828.0M $0.41
Q2 2024 $3.7B $828.0M $0.41
Q1 2024 $3.7B $893.0M $0.46
Q3 2023 $3.6B $846.0M $0.42
Q2 2023 $3.7B $859.0M $0.49

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

CSX Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$4.6B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$1.4B
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$2.9B
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$972.0M
Returned to shareholders

CSX SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for CSX CORP (CIK: 0000277948)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 6, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 4, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 4, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 2, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CSX

What is the AI rating for CSX?

CSX CORP (CSX) has an AI rating of BUY with 72% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CSX's key strengths?

Exceptional operating margin of 32.1% demonstrates pricing power and operational efficiency in the railroad industry. Strong interest coverage ratio of 30.3x provides substantial debt servicing cushion despite leverage.

What are the risks of investing in CSX?

Revenue decline of 3.1% YoY indicates weakening freight demand in the transportation sector. Net income fell 16.7% YoY, outpacing revenue decline and suggesting margin compression or expense pressures.

What is CSX's revenue and growth?

CSX CORP reported revenue of $14.1B.

Does CSX pay dividends?

CSX CORP pays dividends, with $972.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find CSX SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for CSX CORP (CIK: 0000277948) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CSX's EPS?

CSX CORP has a diluted EPS of $1.54.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 23, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI