Investment Thesis
Astrana Health demonstrates strong revenue growth of 56.4% YoY with positive free cash flow of $104.5M, indicating operational expansion capability. However, extremely thin profit margins (0.7% net, 2.5% operating) and concerning gross margin collapse to 0.0% suggest severe pricing pressures, cost absorption issues, or acquisition accounting effects that warrant investigation before establishing conviction.
ASTH Strengths
- Strong revenue growth of 56.4% YoY indicating market demand and successful business expansion
- Positive free cash flow of $104.5M with 3.3% FCF margin showing cash generation capability
- Adequate liquidity with 1.40x current ratio and $429.5M cash position relative to operations
- Interest coverage ratio of 4.9x demonstrates ability to service debt obligations
ASTH Risks
- Gross margin at 0.0% is severely abnormal and indicates potential acquisition-related accounting, service delivery cost problems, or unsustainable pricing dynamics
- Net income declined 6.6% YoY despite 56.4% revenue growth, showing profitability deterioration amid expansion
- Diluted EPS dropped 48.9% YoY signaling significant per-share value destruction despite top-line growth
- High leverage with 1.27x debt/equity ratio and $990.9M long-term debt against $779.3M equity
- Extremely low ROE of 2.9% and ROA of 1.0% indicate poor capital efficiency and asset utilization
Key Metrics to Watch
- Gross margin trajectory and return to positive levels (investigate 0.0% anomaly)
- Operating margin expansion vs. revenue growth sustainability
- Free cash flow conversion rate and capital allocation discipline
- Debt reduction pathway and leverage ratio trend
- Year-over-year net income and EPS growth inflection
ASTH Financial Metrics
ASTH Profitability Ratios
ASTH Balance Sheet & Liquidity
ASTH 5-Year Financial Trend
5-Year Trend Summary: Astrana Health, Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 311% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $1.29 reflects profitable operations.
ASTH Growth Metrics (YoY)
ASTH Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $478.7M | $373.0K | $0.01 |
| Q2 2025 | $486.3M | $9.4M | $0.19 |
| Q1 2025 | $404.4M | $6.7M | $0.14 |
| Q3 2024 | $348.2M | $16.1M | $0.33 |
| Q2 2024 | $348.2M | $13.2M | $0.28 |
| Q1 2024 | $337.2M | $13.1M | $0.28 |
| Q3 2023 | $317.0M | $22.1M | $0.47 |
| Q2 2023 | $269.7M | $12.0M | $0.26 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
ASTH Capital Allocation
ASTH SEC Filings
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Astrana Health, Inc. (CIK: 0001083446)