Investment Thesis
Agilon Health faces severe operational distress with persistent negative profitability and deteriorating cash flows, burning $119M in free cash flow annually while revenues declined 2.1% YoY. The company's negative net margin of -6.6% and negative operating income of $463.2M indicate fundamental business model challenges that are not self-correcting. With only $173.7M in cash against $1.1B in liabilities and negative interest coverage, the company faces material solvency concerns in the near term.
AGL Strengths
- Positive debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28x suggests manageable leverage levels relative to equity base
- Current ratio of 1.02x indicates ability to meet short-term obligations, though tightened
- Maintains $173.7M cash position providing liquidity runway despite operational losses
AGL Risks
- Negative free cash flow of -$119M annually is unsustainable and depleting cash reserves at alarming rate
- Operating losses of -$463.2M and negative operating margin of -7.8% indicate inability to generate profit from core operations
- Revenue decline of 2.1% YoY combined with negative profitability suggests deteriorating competitive position in health services sector
- Negative interest coverage of -360.8x indicates company cannot service debt from operating earnings
- Equity base of only $126.7M against $1.3B in assets creates minimal equity cushion for creditors
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating cash flow trend - must return to positive to avoid insolvency within 18-24 months
- Revenue stabilization - reversal of YoY decline is prerequisite for recovery
- Operating margin improvement - needs to demonstrate clear path to profitability or break-even operations
- Cash burn rate and remaining cash runway - critical for determining survival timeline
AGL Financial Metrics
AGL Profitability Ratios
AGL Balance Sheet & Liquidity
AGL 5-Year Financial Trend
5-Year Trend Summary: agilon health, inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 231% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $-0.48 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.
AGL Growth Metrics (YoY)
AGL Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | -$110.2M | $-0.27 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | -$30.7M | $-0.07 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | -$6.1M | $0.00 |
| Q3 2024 | $1.1B | -$31.4M | $-0.06 |
| Q2 2024 | $1.1B | -$727.0K | $-0.01 |
| Q1 2024 | $1.1B | -$6.1M | $0.01 |
| Q3 2023 | $694.9M | -$30.7M | $-0.07 |
| Q2 2023 | $670.1M | -$727.0K | $0.00 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
AGL Capital Allocation
AGL SEC Filings
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for agilon health, inc. (CIK: 0001831097)