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MSM Stock Analysis 2026 - MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC AI Rating

MSM NYSE Wholesale-Industrial Machinery & Equipment NY CIK: 0001003078
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 2, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-02-28
HOLD
62% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 MSM Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.9B
Net Margin: 5.0%
Free Cash Flow: $80.5M
Current Ratio: 1.73x
Debt/Equity: 0.14x
EPS: $1.69
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence

Is MSM a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis

Claude

MSC Industrial demonstrates solid financial health with strong liquidity (1.73x current ratio), low leverage (0.14x debt/equity), and stable free cash flow generation of $80.5M. However, revenue contraction of 1.3% YoY combined with a 22.1% decline in diluted EPS indicates deteriorating operational momentum despite modest net income growth, suggesting near-term headwinds in the industrial machinery wholesale sector.

Why Buy MSM? Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong balance sheet with low debt/equity ratio of 0.14x and comfortable interest coverage of 11.5x
  • + Robust liquidity position with current ratio of 1.73x and consistent free cash flow generation of $80.5M
  • + Healthy gross margin of 40.9% demonstrates pricing power and cost management in competitive wholesale sector
  • + Positive free cash flow conversion at 4.3% FCF margin supports capital allocation flexibility

MSM Investment Risks to Consider

Claude
  • ! Revenue declining year-over-year (-1.3% YoY) signals weakening demand in industrial end-markets and competitive pressure
  • ! Significant EPS deterioration of -22.1% YoY despite flat net income growth indicates share dilution or reduced per-share profitability
  • ! Weak quick ratio of 0.78x suggests potential liquidity concerns beyond current assets, relying heavily on inventory conversion
  • ! Low ROE of 6.8% and ROA of 3.8% indicate poor capital efficiency and suboptimal returns on shareholder investment

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Revenue growth trajectory - critical indicator of market demand recovery
  • * Gross margin sustainability - must maintain 40%+ to offset operating leverage pressure
  • * Free cash flow yield and conversion rate - essential for debt reduction and shareholder returns
  • * Days inventory outstanding and working capital efficiency - directly impacts quick ratio and liquidity

MSM Financial Metrics

Revenue
$1.9B
Net Income
$94.3M
EPS (Diluted)
$1.69
Free Cash Flow
$80.5M
Total Assets
$2.5B
Cash Position
$46.2M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The relatively thin 4.3% FCF margin may limit capital allocation flexibility.

MSM Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 40.9%
Operating Margin 7.5%
Net Margin 5.0%
ROE 6.8%
ROA 3.8%
FCF Margin 4.3%

MSM vs Industrial Sector

How MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC compares to Industrial sector averages

Net Margin
MSM 5.0%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
MSM Sector
ROE
MSM 6.8%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
MSM Sector
Current Ratio
MSM 1.7x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
MSM Sector
Debt/Equity
MSM 0.1x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
MSM Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is MSM Overvalued or Undervalued?

Based on fundamental analysis, MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Industrial sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
6.8%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
5.0%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.14x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

MSM Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.73x
Quick Ratio
0.78x
Debt/Equity
0.14x
Debt/Assets
43.5%
Interest Coverage
11.49x
Long-term Debt
$194.5M

MSM 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis

MSM 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $3.4B, Net Income $288.9M, EPS $5.20. Year 2022: Revenue $3.7B, Net Income $251.1M, EPS $4.51. Year 2023: Revenue $4.0B, Net Income $216.9M, EPS $3.87. Year 2024: Revenue $4.0B, Net Income $339.8M, EPS $6.06. Year 2025: Revenue $4.0B, Net Income $343.2M, EPS $6.11.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC's revenue has grown significantly by 19% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $6.11 reflects profitable operations.

MSM Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
4.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

MSM Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q2 2026 $891.7M $39.3M $0.70
Q1 2026 $928.5M $46.6M $0.83
Q3 2025 $971.1M $56.8M $1.02
Q2 2025 $891.7M $39.3M $0.70
Q1 2025 $928.5M $46.6M $0.83
Q3 2024 $979.4M $71.7M $1.27
Q2 2024 $935.3M $61.8M $1.10
Q1 2024 $954.0M $69.4M $1.22

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

MSM Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$123.8M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$13.7M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$43.3M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$132.5M
Returned to shareholders

MSM SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC (CIK: 0001003078)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 1, 2026 10-Q msm-20260228.htm View →
Apr 1, 2026 8-K msm-20260401.htm View →
Mar 19, 2026 8-K msm-20260319.htm View →
Mar 2, 2026 8-K msm-20260302.htm View →
Feb 5, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1770324303.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about MSM

What is the AI rating for MSM?

MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC (MSM) has an AI rating of HOLD with 62% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are MSM's key strengths?

Claude: Strong balance sheet with low debt/equity ratio of 0.14x and comfortable interest coverage of 11.5x. Robust liquidity position with current ratio of 1.73x and consistent free cash flow generation of $80.5M.

What are the risks of investing in MSM?

Claude: Revenue declining year-over-year (-1.3% YoY) signals weakening demand in industrial end-markets and competitive pressure. Significant EPS deterioration of -22.1% YoY despite flat net income growth indicates share dilution or reduced per-share profitability.

What is MSM's revenue and growth?

MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC reported revenue of $1.9B.

Does MSM pay dividends?

MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC pays dividends, with $132.5M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find MSM SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC (CIK: 0001003078) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is MSM's EPS?

MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC has a diluted EPS of $1.69.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is MSM a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC has a HOLD rating with 62% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is MSM stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for MSM: ROE of 6.8% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 5.0% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy MSM stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is MSM's free cash flow?

MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC's operating cash flow is $123.8M, with capital expenditures of $43.3M. FCF margin is 4.3%.

How does MSM compare to other Industrial stocks?

Vs Industrial sector averages: Net margin 5.0% (avg: 10%), ROE 6.8% (avg: 15%), current ratio 1.73 (avg: 1.8).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 2, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-02-28 | Powered by Claude AI