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Mattel Inc. /DE/ (MAT) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

MAT Nasdaq Dolls & Stuffed Toys DE CIK: 0000063276
Recently Updated • Analysis: May 6, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
80% Confidence
AGREEMENT
SELL
85% Conf
HOLD
76% Conf

📊 MAT Key Takeaways

Revenue: $862.2M
Net Margin: 7.1%
Free Cash Flow: $-61.9M
Current Ratio: 2.06x
Debt/Equity: 1.11x
EPS: $0.20
AI Rating: SELL with 85% confidence
Mattel Inc. /DE/ (MAT) receives a SELL rating with 80% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $862.2M, net profit margin of 7.1%, and return on equity (ROE) of 2.9%, Mattel Inc. /DE/ demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Market sector. Below is our complete MAT stock analysis for 2026.

Is Mattel Inc. /DE/ (MAT) a Good Investment?

Claude

Mattel exhibits critical operational distress with -$102.7M operating loss and negative free cash flow of -$61.9M despite reasonable gross margins, indicating severe cost structure problems. The company cannot cover interest expense from operations (negative 3.4x coverage), relies on dwindling cash reserves to fund operations, and faces mounting financial stress with debt exceeding equity.

ChatGPT

Mattel shows solid core profitability, strong free cash flow generation, and healthy liquidity, which support overall financial resilience. However, the latest period reflects flat revenue and a sharp decline in net income and EPS, suggesting that earnings quality and growth momentum have weakened. The fundamentals support stability, but not a clearly accelerating operating trend.

Why Buy Mattel Inc. /DE/ Stock? MAT Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Solid gross margin of 44.9% indicates core product profitability
  • + Adequate liquidity with current ratio of 2.06x and $866M cash cushion
  • + Established market position in toy industry with recognized brands
ChatGPT
  • + Strong gross margin of 48.7% and double-digit operating margin of 10.2% indicate solid underlying profitability
  • + Free cash flow of $554.29M and a 10.4% FCF margin show good cash conversion and financial flexibility
  • + Liquidity is strong with a 2.15x current ratio and 1.76x quick ratio, while interest coverage of 18.2x keeps debt burden manageable

MAT Stock Risks: Mattel Inc. /DE/ Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Negative operating cash flow (-$22.9M) and free cash flow (-$61.9M) signal unsustainable cash burn
  • ! Operating income loss of $102.7M with negative interest coverage (-3.4x) means debt cannot be serviced from operations
  • ! Declining revenue (-0.6% YoY) and diluted EPS (-21.5% YoY) indicate deteriorating fundamentals
  • ! Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11x combined with operating losses creates refinancing risk
  • ! Extremely low returns on equity (2.9%) and assets (1.0%) reflect capital inefficiency
ChatGPT
  • ! Revenue declined 0.6% year over year, pointing to limited top-line momentum
  • ! Net income fell 26.6% and diluted EPS dropped 21.5%, showing pressure on bottom-line performance
  • ! Debt-to-equity of 1.04x and $2.33B in long-term debt leave less room for error if operating trends weaken further

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating cash flow trend and path to positive territory
  • * Operating income recovery and expense reduction initiatives
  • * Free cash flow sustainability and cash balance depletion rate
  • * Revenue growth acceleration and operating margin improvement
  • * Debt refinancing ability and covenant compliance
ChatGPT
  • * Year-over-year revenue growth and segment sales mix
  • * Net income margin and free cash flow conversion

Mattel Inc. /DE/ (MAT) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$862.2M
Net Income
$61.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.20
Free Cash Flow
$-61.9M
Total Assets
$6.3B
Cash Position
$866.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Strong liquidity with a 2.06x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.

MAT Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 44.9%
Operating Margin -11.9%
Net Margin 7.1%
ROE 2.9%
ROA 1.0%
FCF Margin -7.2%

MAT vs Market Sector: How Mattel Inc. /DE/ Compares

How Mattel Inc. /DE/ compares to Market sector averages

Net Margin
MAT 7.1%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
MAT Sector
ROE
MAT 2.9%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
MAT Sector
Current Ratio
MAT 2.1x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
MAT Sector
Debt/Equity
MAT 1.1x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
MAT Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Mattel Inc. /DE/ Stock Overvalued? MAT Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Mattel Inc. /DE/ has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Market sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
2.9%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
7.1%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
1.11x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Mattel Inc. /DE/ Balance Sheet: MAT Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
2.06x
Quick Ratio
1.50x
Debt/Equity
1.11x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
-3.42x
Long-term Debt
$2.3B

MAT Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

MAT 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $5.5B, Net Income -$218.8M, EPS $-0.63. Year 2022: Revenue $5.5B, Net Income $123.6M, EPS $0.35. Year 2023: Revenue $5.5B, Net Income $903.0M, EPS $2.53. Year 2024: Revenue $5.4B, Net Income $393.9M, EPS $1.10. Year 2025: Revenue $5.4B, Net Income $214.4M, EPS $0.60.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Mattel Inc. /DE/'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 0% decline. The most recent EPS of $0.60 reflects profitable operations.

MAT Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-7.2%
Free cash flow / Revenue

MAT Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Mattel Inc. /DE/ including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $826.6M -$40.3M $-0.12
Q3 2025 $1.7B -$28.3M $0.88
Q2 2025 $1.0B $13.0M $0.04
Q1 2025 $809.5M -$28.3M $-0.08
Q3 2024 $1.8B $27.2M $0.19
Q2 2024 $1.1B $27.2M $0.08
Q1 2024 $809.5M -$28.3M $-0.08
Q3 2023 $1.8B $21.5M $0.19

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Mattel Inc. /DE/ Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
-$22.9M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$200.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$39.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

MAT SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Mattel Inc. /DE/ (CIK: 0000063276)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778013900.xml View →
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778013873.xml View →
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778013825.xml View →
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778013777.xml View →
May 5, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778013744.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about MAT

What is the AI rating for MAT?

Mattel Inc. /DE/ (MAT) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 80% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are MAT's key strengths?

Claude: Solid gross margin of 44.9% indicates core product profitability. Adequate liquidity with current ratio of 2.06x and $866M cash cushion. ChatGPT: Strong gross margin of 48.7% and double-digit operating margin of 10.2% indicate solid underlying profitability. Free cash flow of $554.29M and a 10.4% FCF margin show good cash conversion and financial flexibility.

What are the risks of investing in MAT?

Claude: Negative operating cash flow (-$22.9M) and free cash flow (-$61.9M) signal unsustainable cash burn. Operating income loss of $102.7M with negative interest coverage (-3.4x) means debt cannot be serviced from operations. ChatGPT: Revenue declined 0.6% year over year, pointing to limited top-line momentum. Net income fell 26.6% and diluted EPS dropped 21.5%, showing pressure on bottom-line performance.

What is MAT's revenue and growth?

Mattel Inc. /DE/ reported revenue of $862.2M.

Does MAT pay dividends?

Mattel Inc. /DE/ does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find MAT SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Mattel Inc. /DE/ (CIK: 0000063276) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is MAT's EPS?

Mattel Inc. /DE/ has a diluted EPS of $0.20.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is MAT a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Mattel Inc. /DE/ has a SELL rating with 80% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is MAT stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for MAT: ROE of 2.9% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 7.1% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy MAT stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Mattel Inc. /DE/ a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is MAT's free cash flow?

Mattel Inc. /DE/'s operating cash flow is $-22.9M, with capital expenditures of $39.0M. FCF margin is -7.2%.

How does MAT compare to other Market stocks?

Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 7.1% (avg: 12%), ROE 2.9% (avg: 15%), current ratio 2.06 (avg: 1.8).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 6, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI