📊 GEO Key Takeaways
Is Geo Group Inc. (GEO) a Good Investment?
GEO demonstrates strong free cash flow generation ($134.8M, 19.1% FCF margin) and adequate liquidity, but is constrained by zero revenue/net income growth, extremely poor capital returns (ROE 2.6%, ROA 1.0%), and elevated leverage (D/E 1.06x) relative to interest coverage (2.3x). EPS growth is share-count driven rather than operational improvement.
GEO Group shows solid reported profitability, with positive operating income, a near-10% net margin, and respectable ROE, but the quality of that performance is tempered by flat revenue, weak cash generation, and heavy leverage. Liquidity appears adequate in the near term, yet negative free cash flow and low interest coverage suggest the balance sheet still constrains flexibility. Fundamentally, this looks like a profitable but financially burdened business rather than a clean growth story.
Why Buy Geo Group Inc. Stock? GEO Key Strengths
- Exceptional free cash flow generation at $134.8M annually with 19.1% FCF margin, substantially exceeding net income
- Solid liquidity position with current ratio of 1.75x and quick ratio of 1.65x, providing short-term financial flexibility
- Operating cash flow of $156.5M significantly exceeds reported net income of $38.3M, indicating earnings quality and stability
- Positive operating and net profitability with 9.8% operating margin and 9.7% net margin
- ROE of 16.9% indicates the company is generating reasonable returns on equity
- Current ratio of 2.01x and quick ratio of 1.90x suggest near-term liquidity is manageable
GEO Stock Risks: Geo Group Inc. Investment Risks
- Complete operational stagnation with 0% revenue and net income growth YoY, indicating no organic expansion
- Severe capital inefficiency with ROE of only 2.6% and ROA of 1.0% across a $3.8B asset base
- High financial leverage (D/E 1.06x) with constrained interest coverage of 2.3x and modest cash position ($80.2M) relative to $1.6B debt load
- EPS growth of 727% driven entirely by share buybacks masking flat operational performance
- Exposure to cyclical residential construction sector with current demand plateau
- Revenue and net income were essentially flat year over year, pointing to limited underlying growth
- Free cash flow was negative at -$124.90M due to capital intensity, weakening cash-based earnings quality
- Leverage remains elevated with $1.67B in long-term debt, 1.11x debt-to-equity, and only 1.6x interest coverage
Key Metrics to Watch
- Revenue growth acceleration and gross margin stabilization
- Debt reduction trajectory and interest coverage ratio improvement
- Return on equity and asset efficiency trends
- Free cash flow improvement and capital expenditure intensity
- Interest coverage and long-term debt reduction
Geo Group Inc. (GEO) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios
💡 AI Analyst Insight
Geo Group Inc. presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.
GEO Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis
GEO vs Market Sector: How Geo Group Inc. Compares
How Geo Group Inc. compares to Market sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is Geo Group Inc. Stock Overvalued? GEO Valuation Analysis 2026
Based on fundamental analysis, Geo Group Inc. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Market sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
Geo Group Inc. Balance Sheet: GEO Debt, Cash & Liquidity
GEO Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend
5-Year Trend Summary: Geo Group Inc.'s revenue has shown modest growth of 6% over the 5-year period. The most recent EPS of $0.72 reflects profitable operations.
GEO Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance
GEO Quarterly Earnings & Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $604.6M | $19.6M | $0.14 |
| Q3 2025 | $603.1M | $16.5M | $0.11 |
| Q2 2025 | $607.2M | -$9.8M | $-0.08 |
| Q1 2025 | $604.6M | $19.6M | $0.14 |
| Q3 2024 | $602.8M | $16.5M | $0.11 |
| Q2 2024 | $593.9M | -$9.8M | $-0.08 |
| Q1 2024 | $605.7M | $22.7M | $0.14 |
| Q3 2023 | $602.8M | $24.5M | $0.16 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
Geo Group Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation
GEO SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Geo Group Inc. (CIK: 0000923796)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about GEO
What is the AI rating for GEO?
Geo Group Inc. (GEO) has a Combined AI Rating of HOLD from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 73% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are GEO's key strengths?
Claude: Exceptional free cash flow generation at $134.8M annually with 19.1% FCF margin, substantially exceeding net income. Solid liquidity position with current ratio of 1.75x and quick ratio of 1.65x, providing short-term financial flexibility. ChatGPT: Positive operating and net profitability with 9.8% operating margin and 9.7% net margin. ROE of 16.9% indicates the company is generating reasonable returns on equity.
What are the risks of investing in GEO?
Claude: Complete operational stagnation with 0% revenue and net income growth YoY, indicating no organic expansion. Severe capital inefficiency with ROE of only 2.6% and ROA of 1.0% across a $3.8B asset base. ChatGPT: Revenue and net income were essentially flat year over year, pointing to limited underlying growth. Free cash flow was negative at -$124.90M due to capital intensity, weakening cash-based earnings quality.
What is GEO's revenue and growth?
Geo Group Inc. reported revenue of $705.2M.
Does GEO pay dividends?
Geo Group Inc. pays dividends, with $30.5M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find GEO SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for Geo Group Inc. (CIK: 0000923796) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is GEO's EPS?
Geo Group Inc. has a diluted EPS of $0.29.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is GEO a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Geo Group Inc. has a HOLD rating with 73% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.
Is GEO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for GEO: ROE of 2.6% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 5.4% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.
Should I buy GEO stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives Geo Group Inc. a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is GEO's free cash flow?
Geo Group Inc.'s operating cash flow is $156.5M, with capital expenditures of $21.7M. FCF margin is 19.1%.
How does GEO compare to other Market stocks?
Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 5.4% (avg: 12%), ROE 2.6% (avg: 15%), current ratio 1.75 (avg: 1.8).