📊 GEO Key Takeaways
Is GEO a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis
While the company demonstrates solid profitability margins (9.7% net margin) and reasonable ROE/ROA metrics, the negative free cash flow of -$124.9M is a critical red flag indicating the company is consuming cash despite operational profits. The high leverage (1.11x debt-to-equity) combined with weak interest coverage (1.6x) and capital expenditures exceeding operating cash flow by $124.9M creates significant financial stress and sustainability concerns.
Why Buy GEO? Key Strengths
- Stable revenue base of $2.6B with consistent operational performance
- Solid profitability metrics with 9.8% operating margin and 9.7% net margin
- Reasonable liquidity position with 2.01x current ratio and 1.90x quick ratio
GEO Investment Risks to Consider
- Severely negative free cash flow of -$124.9M, indicating unsustainable capital spending relative to operational cash generation
- High leverage with 1.7B long-term debt and weak interest coverage ratio of 1.6x limits financial flexibility
- Capital expenditures of $197.5M significantly exceed operating cash flow of $72.6M, suggesting potential refinancing pressure or dividend/share buyback sustainability issues
Key Metrics to Watch
- Free cash flow trend and path to positivity
- Debt reduction progress and interest coverage ratio improvement
- Capital expenditure levels relative to depreciation and operating cash flow
GEO Financial Metrics
💡 AI Analyst Insight
Strong liquidity with a 2.01x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.
GEO Profitability Ratios
GEO vs Default Sector
How GEO GROUP INC compares to Default sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is GEO Overvalued or Undervalued?
Based on fundamental analysis, GEO GROUP INC has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Default sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
GEO Balance Sheet & Liquidity
GEO 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis
5-Year Trend Summary: GEO GROUP INC's revenue has shown modest growth of 6% over the 5-year period. The most recent EPS of $0.72 reflects profitable operations.
GEO Growth Metrics (YoY)
GEO Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $603.1M | $16.5M | $0.11 |
| Q2 2025 | $607.2M | -$9.8M | $-0.08 |
| Q1 2025 | $604.6M | $19.6M | $0.14 |
| Q3 2024 | $602.8M | $16.5M | $0.11 |
| Q2 2024 | $593.9M | -$9.8M | $-0.08 |
| Q1 2024 | $605.7M | $22.7M | $0.14 |
| Q3 2023 | $602.8M | $24.5M | $0.16 |
| Q2 2023 | $588.2M | $29.6M | $0.20 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
GEO Capital Allocation
GEO SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for GEO GROUP INC (CIK: 0000923796)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about GEO
What is the AI rating for GEO?
GEO GROUP INC (GEO) has an AI rating of SELL with 75% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are GEO's key strengths?
Claude: Stable revenue base of $2.6B with consistent operational performance. Solid profitability metrics with 9.8% operating margin and 9.7% net margin.
What are the risks of investing in GEO?
Claude: Severely negative free cash flow of -$124.9M, indicating unsustainable capital spending relative to operational cash generation. High leverage with 1.7B long-term debt and weak interest coverage ratio of 1.6x limits financial flexibility.
What is GEO's revenue and growth?
GEO GROUP INC reported revenue of $2.6B.
Does GEO pay dividends?
GEO GROUP INC pays dividends, with $30.5M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find GEO SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for GEO GROUP INC (CIK: 0000923796) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is GEO's EPS?
GEO GROUP INC has a diluted EPS of $1.82.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is GEO a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in March 2026, GEO GROUP INC has a SELL rating with 75% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.
Is GEO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for GEO: ROE of 16.9% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 9.7% (sector avg: 12%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.
Should I buy GEO stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives GEO GROUP INC a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is GEO's free cash flow?
GEO GROUP INC's operating cash flow is $72.6M, with capital expenditures of $197.5M. FCF margin is -4.7%.
How does GEO compare to other Default stocks?
Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 9.7% (avg: 12%), ROE 16.9% (avg: 15%), current ratio 2.01 (avg: 1.8).