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Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

CWST Nasdaq Refuse Systems DE CIK: 0000911177
Recently Updated • Analysis: May 6, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
78% Confidence
AGREEMENT
SELL
78% Conf
HOLD
77% Conf

📊 CWST Key Takeaways

Revenue: $457.3M
Net Margin: -1.2%
Free Cash Flow: $12.3M
Current Ratio: 1.38x
Debt/Equity: 0.72x
EPS: $-0.09
AI Rating: SELL with 78% confidence
Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) receives a SELL rating with 78% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $457.3M, net profit margin of -1.2%, and return on equity (ROE) of -0.4%, Casella Waste Systems Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Market sector. Below is our complete CWST stock analysis for 2026.

Is Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) a Good Investment?

Claude

Casella is fundamentally unprofitable with negative net income (-$5.5M) and critical debt service stress, evidenced by interest coverage of only 0.3x—operating income cannot support interest obligations. Coupled with flat revenue growth (0% YoY), extreme operational margin compression (1.1%), and negative returns on capital (ROE -0.4%, ROA -0.2%), the business exhibits structural profitability challenges that require material operational improvement to restore financial health.

ChatGPT

Casella Waste Systems shows solid operating cash generation, positive free cash flow, and acceptable liquidity, which supports the business despite a leveraged balance sheet. However, flat revenue, very thin operating and net margins, and a sharp decline in net income and EPS point to weak earnings quality and limited near-term profitability. The fundamentals suggest a stable but not especially strong setup unless margin recovery improves materially.

Why Buy Casella Waste Systems Inc. Stock? CWST Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Positive operating cash flow of $62.3M demonstrates the underlying business generates liquidity despite accounting losses
  • + Adequate short-term liquidity with current ratio of 1.38x and $126.9M cash balance reduces near-term default risk
  • + Moderate leverage position with debt/equity of 0.72x provides some financial flexibility to restructure
  • + Positive free cash flow of $12.3M indicates the business can fund capex and meet obligations from operations
ChatGPT
  • + Strong operating cash flow of $329.78M with positive free cash flow
  • + Liquidity appears adequate with a 1.26x current ratio and 1.24x quick ratio
  • + Debt load looks manageable relative to equity, with 0.72x debt-to-equity and 4.0x interest coverage

CWST Stock Risks: Casella Waste Systems Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Critical: Interest coverage of 0.3x is unsustainable—operating income cannot cover interest expense, indicating severe debt service stress
  • ! Persistent unprofitability with -$5.5M net income and -1.2% net margin on $457M revenue base signals fundamental operational dysfunction
  • ! Zero revenue growth (0% YoY) with flat top line indicates no market expansion, pricing power, or organic growth momentum
  • ! Operating margin of only 1.1% in waste management (typically higher-margin) suggests severe cost structure misalignment or pricing pressure
  • ! Negative returns on equity and assets indicate poor capital allocation and value destruction for shareholders
ChatGPT
  • ! Net income fell 41.9% YoY and diluted EPS fell 47.8% YoY, indicating significant earnings pressure
  • ! Profitability is weak, with only a 3.5% operating margin and 0.4% net margin
  • ! Revenue was flat YoY, raising concern about growth quality if cash flow is not translating into stronger earnings

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Interest coverage ratio—must improve from 0.3x to 2.0x+ to achieve sustainable debt service capability
  • * Operating margin expansion—current 1.1% unsustainable; target 5%+ for industry-standard profitability
  • * Revenue growth trajectory—need evidence of contract wins and top-line expansion beyond current 0% growth
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability—verify the $62.3M generation continues as company returns to profitability
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin and net margin trend
  • * Free cash flow conversion relative to operating cash flow and capital expenditure

Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$457.3M
Net Income
$-5.5M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.09
Free Cash Flow
$12.3M
Total Assets
$3.3B
Cash Position
$126.9M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The relatively thin 2.7% FCF margin may limit capital allocation flexibility.

CWST Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 1.1%
Net Margin -1.2%
ROE -0.4%
ROA -0.2%
FCF Margin 2.7%

CWST vs Market Sector: How Casella Waste Systems Inc. Compares

How Casella Waste Systems Inc. compares to Market sector averages

Net Margin
CWST -1.2%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
CWST Sector
ROE
CWST -0.4%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
CWST Sector
Current Ratio
CWST 1.4x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
CWST Sector
Debt/Equity
CWST 0.7x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
CWST Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Casella Waste Systems Inc. Stock Overvalued? CWST Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Casella Waste Systems Inc. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Market sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
-0.4%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
-1.2%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.72x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Casella Waste Systems Inc. Balance Sheet: CWST Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.38x
Quick Ratio
1.37x
Debt/Equity
0.72x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
0.31x
Long-term Debt
$1.1B

CWST Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

CWST 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $889.2M, Net Income $31.7M, EPS $0.66. Year 2022: Revenue $1.1B, Net Income $91.1M, EPS $1.86. Year 2023: Revenue $1.3B, Net Income $41.1M, EPS $0.80. Year 2024: Revenue $1.6B, Net Income $53.1M, EPS $1.03. Year 2025: Revenue $1.8B, Net Income $25.4M, EPS $0.46.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Casella Waste Systems Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 107% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $0.46 reflects profitable operations.

CWST Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
2.7%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CWST Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Casella Waste Systems Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $417.1M -$4.8M $-0.08
Q3 2025 $411.6M -$4.1M $0.10
Q2 2025 $377.2M $398.0K $0.01
Q1 2025 $341.0M -$4.1M $-0.07
Q3 2024 $352.7M $3.5M $0.10
Q2 2024 $289.6M $2.9M $0.05
Q1 2024 $262.6M $3.5M $0.07
Q3 2023 $295.3M $3.5M $0.31

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Casella Waste Systems Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$62.3M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$50.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

CWST SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CIK: 0000911177)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
May 1, 2026 10-Q cwst-20260331.htm View →
Apr 30, 2026 8-K cwst-20260430.htm View →
Apr 22, 2026 8-K cwst-20260420.htm View →
Apr 17, 2026 DEF 14A d33908ddef14a.htm View →
Mar 24, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1774384147.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CWST

What is the AI rating for CWST?

Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 78% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CWST's key strengths?

Claude: Positive operating cash flow of $62.3M demonstrates the underlying business generates liquidity despite accounting losses. Adequate short-term liquidity with current ratio of 1.38x and $126.9M cash balance reduces near-term default risk. ChatGPT: Strong operating cash flow of $329.78M with positive free cash flow. Liquidity appears adequate with a 1.26x current ratio and 1.24x quick ratio.

What are the risks of investing in CWST?

Claude: Critical: Interest coverage of 0.3x is unsustainable—operating income cannot cover interest expense, indicating severe debt service stress. Persistent unprofitability with -$5.5M net income and -1.2% net margin on $457M revenue base signals fundamental operational dysfunction. ChatGPT: Net income fell 41.9% YoY and diluted EPS fell 47.8% YoY, indicating significant earnings pressure. Profitability is weak, with only a 3.5% operating margin and 0.4% net margin.

What is CWST's revenue and growth?

Casella Waste Systems Inc. reported revenue of $457.3M.

Does CWST pay dividends?

Casella Waste Systems Inc. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find CWST SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CIK: 0000911177) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CWST's EPS?

Casella Waste Systems Inc. has a diluted EPS of $-0.09.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is CWST a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Casella Waste Systems Inc. has a SELL rating with 78% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is CWST stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for CWST: ROE of -0.4% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of -1.2% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy CWST stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Casella Waste Systems Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is CWST's free cash flow?

Casella Waste Systems Inc.'s operating cash flow is $62.3M, with capital expenditures of $50.0M. FCF margin is 2.7%.

How does CWST compare to other Market stocks?

Vs Default sector averages: Net margin -1.2% (avg: 12%), ROE -0.4% (avg: 15%), current ratio 1.38 (avg: 1.8).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 6, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI