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CWST Stock Analysis - CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC AI Rating

CWST Nasdaq Refuse Systems DE CIK: 0000911177
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 23, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
AI Rating
HOLD
62% Confidence

📊 CWST Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.8B
Net Margin: 0.4%
Free Cash Flow: $84.7M
Current Ratio: 1.26x
Debt/Equity: 0.72x
EPS: $0.12
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence

Investment Thesis

Casella Waste demonstrates solid operational cash generation with $329.8M operating cash flow supporting modest free cash flow of $84.7M, but profitability deterioration is concerning with net income declining 41.9% YoY and net margins contracting to 0.4%. The company maintains adequate leverage ratios and liquidity, but weak earnings quality and flat revenue growth signal operational headwinds that require resolution.

CWST Strengths

  • + Strong operating cash flow generation of $329.8M provides financial flexibility despite low net margins
  • + Reasonable leverage profile with 0.72x debt-to-equity and 4.0x interest coverage ratio indicates manageable debt servicing capability
  • + Adequate liquidity with 1.26x current ratio and $123.8M cash balance supports operational needs and capital allocation
  • + Meaningful free cash flow of $84.7M after $245.1M capex demonstrates underlying business cash generation capability

CWST Risks

  • ! Significant profitability deterioration with net income down 41.9% YoY and diluted EPS down 47.8% YoY indicates serious operational challenges
  • ! Extremely low net margin of 0.4% combined with stagnant revenue growth (flat YoY) suggests pricing pressure or cost inflation in refuse systems market
  • ! Weak returns on equity (0.5%) and assets (0.2%) indicate poor capital efficiency despite substantial $3.3B asset base and $1.6B equity
  • ! Heavy capital intensity requiring $245.1M annual capex to maintain operations leaves limited margin for error in cash flow generation

Key Metrics to Watch

CWST Financial Metrics

Revenue
$1.8B
Net Income
$7.9M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.12
Free Cash Flow
$84.7M
Total Assets
$3.3B
Cash Position
$123.8M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The relatively thin 4.6% FCF margin may limit capital allocation flexibility.

CWST Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 3.5%
Net Margin 0.4%
ROE 0.5%
ROA 0.2%
FCF Margin 4.6%

CWST vs Default Sector

How CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC compares to Default sector averages

Net Margin
CWST 0.4%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
CWST Sector
ROE
CWST 0.5%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
CWST Sector
Current Ratio
CWST 1.3x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
CWST Sector
Debt/Equity
CWST 0.7x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
CWST Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

CWST Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.26x
Quick Ratio
1.24x
Debt/Equity
0.72x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
4.01x
Long-term Debt
$1.1B

CWST 5-Year Financial Trend

CWST 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $889.2M, Net Income $31.7M, EPS $0.66. Year 2022: Revenue $1.1B, Net Income $91.1M, EPS $1.86. Year 2023: Revenue $1.3B, Net Income $41.1M, EPS $0.80. Year 2024: Revenue $1.6B, Net Income $53.1M, EPS $1.03. Year 2025: Revenue $1.8B, Net Income $25.4M, EPS $0.46.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC's revenue has grown significantly by 107% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $0.46 reflects profitable operations.

CWST Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
4.6%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CWST Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $411.6M -$4.1M $0.10
Q2 2025 $377.2M $398.0K $0.01
Q1 2025 $341.0M -$4.1M $-0.07
Q3 2024 $352.7M $3.5M $0.10
Q2 2024 $289.6M $2.9M $0.05
Q1 2024 $262.6M $3.5M $0.07
Q3 2023 $295.3M $3.5M $0.31
Q2 2023 $283.7M $3.5M $0.10

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

CWST Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$329.8M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$245.1M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

CWST SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC (CIK: 0000911177)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773778811.xml View →
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773694490.xml View →
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773694461.xml View →
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773694432.xml View →
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773694409.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CWST

What is the AI rating for CWST?

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC (CWST) has an AI rating of HOLD with 62% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CWST's key strengths?

Strong operating cash flow generation of $329.8M provides financial flexibility despite low net margins. Reasonable leverage profile with 0.72x debt-to-equity and 4.0x interest coverage ratio indicates manageable debt servicing capability.

What are the risks of investing in CWST?

Significant profitability deterioration with net income down 41.9% YoY and diluted EPS down 47.8% YoY indicates serious operational challenges. Extremely low net margin of 0.4% combined with stagnant revenue growth (flat YoY) suggests pricing pressure or cost inflation in refuse systems market.

What is CWST's revenue and growth?

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC reported revenue of $1.8B.

Does CWST pay dividends?

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find CWST SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC (CIK: 0000911177) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CWST's EPS?

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC has a diluted EPS of $0.12.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 23, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI