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CF Stock Analysis - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. AI Rating

CF NYSE Agricultural Chemicals DE CIK: 0001324404
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 22, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
AI Rating
BUY
78% Confidence

📊 CF Key Takeaways

Revenue: $7.1B
Net Margin: 20.5%
Free Cash Flow: $1.8B
Current Ratio: 3.37x
Debt/Equity: 0.66x
EPS: $8.97
AI Rating: BUY with 78% confidence

Investment Thesis

CF Industries demonstrates strong operational fundamentals with expanding margins (32.5% operating margin), robust profitability (20.5% net margin), and exceptional returns on equity (30.1% ROE). The company generated substantial free cash flow of $1.8B with solid liquidity metrics, though net income declined 19.1% YoY despite 19.3% revenue growth, warranting monitoring of margin sustainability.

CF Strengths

  • + Strong revenue growth of 19.3% YoY in a cyclical industry demonstrates market strength
  • + Exceptional profitability metrics: 30.1% ROE and 20.5% net margin indicate efficient capital deployment
  • + Robust free cash flow generation of $1.8B with 25.4% FCF margin supports sustainability
  • + Excellent liquidity position with 3.37x current ratio and conservative 0.66x debt/equity leverage
  • + High interest coverage of 14.8x provides significant debt service flexibility

CF Risks

  • ! Net income declined 19.1% YoY despite revenue growth, suggesting margin compression or cost pressures
  • ! Agricultural chemicals sector is highly cyclical and exposed to commodity price volatility
  • ! Long-term debt of $3.2B represents meaningful leverage obligation despite solid coverage ratios
  • ! High insider trading activity (48 Form 4 filings in 90 days) may indicate opportunistic selling at elevated levels

Key Metrics to Watch

CF Financial Metrics

Revenue
$7.1B
Net Income
$1.5B
EPS (Diluted)
$8.97
Free Cash Flow
$1.8B
Total Assets
$14.1B
Cash Position
$629.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 25.4% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. Strong liquidity with a 3.37x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.

CF Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 38.5%
Operating Margin 32.5%
Net Margin 20.5%
ROE 30.1%
ROA 10.3%
FCF Margin 25.4%

CF vs Default Sector

How CF Industries Holdings, Inc. compares to Default sector averages

Net Margin
CF 20.5%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
CF Sector
ROE
CF 30.1%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
CF Sector
Current Ratio
CF 3.4x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
CF Sector
Debt/Equity
CF 0.7x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
CF Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

CF Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
3.37x
Quick Ratio
2.93x
Debt/Equity
0.66x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
14.84x
Long-term Debt
$3.2B

CF 5-Year Financial Trend

CF 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $6.5B, Net Income $646.0M, EPS $2.23. Year 2022: Revenue $11.2B, Net Income $432.0M, EPS $1.47. Year 2023: Revenue $11.2B, Net Income $1.3B, EPS $4.24. Year 2024: Revenue $11.2B, Net Income $3.9B, EPS $16.38. Year 2025: Revenue $7.1B, Net Income $1.8B, EPS $7.87.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s revenue has shown modest growth of 8% over the 5-year period. The most recent EPS of $7.87 reflects profitable operations.

CF Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
25.4%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CF Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $1.4B $341.0M $1.55
Q2 2025 $1.6B $492.0M $2.30
Q1 2025 $1.5B $238.0M $1.03
Q3 2024 $1.3B $230.0M $0.85
Q2 2024 $1.6B $506.0M $2.30
Q1 2024 $1.5B $238.0M $1.03
Q3 2023 $1.3B $230.0M $0.85
Q2 2023 $1.8B $606.0M $2.70

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

CF Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$2.8B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$1.4B
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$950.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$326.0M
Returned to shareholders

CF SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CIK: 0001324404)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 19, 2026 4 xslF345X06/tm269322-3_4seq1.xml View →
Mar 19, 2026 4 xslF345X06/tm269322-2_4seq1.xml View →
Mar 19, 2026 4 xslF345X06/tm269322-1_4seq1.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/tm269128-1_4seq1.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 DEF 14A tm261459-1_def14a.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CF

What is the AI rating for CF?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has an AI rating of BUY with 78% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CF's key strengths?

Strong revenue growth of 19.3% YoY in a cyclical industry demonstrates market strength. Exceptional profitability metrics: 30.1% ROE and 20.5% net margin indicate efficient capital deployment.

What are the risks of investing in CF?

Net income declined 19.1% YoY despite revenue growth, suggesting margin compression or cost pressures. Agricultural chemicals sector is highly cyclical and exposed to commodity price volatility.

What is CF's revenue and growth?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $7.1B.

Does CF pay dividends?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. pays dividends, with $326.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find CF SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CIK: 0001324404) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CF's EPS?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $8.97.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 22, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI