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BXMT Stock Analysis - BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. AI Rating

BXMT NYSE Real Estate Investment Trusts MD CIK: 0001061630
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 21, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
AI Rating
HOLD
62% Confidence

📊 BXMT Key Takeaways

Revenue: $552.8M
Net Margin: 19.8%
Free Cash Flow: $275.9M
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 4.01x
EPS: $0.64
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence

Investment Thesis

BXMT demonstrates solid profitability with 19.8% net margin and strong free cash flow generation (49.9% FCF margin), supporting its mortgage REIT model. However, critically weak interest coverage (0.3x) and extreme leverage (4.01x debt/equity) present significant financial stress, requiring careful monitoring of interest rate environment and refinancing risk.

BXMT Strengths

  • + Strong net profit margin of 19.8% with revenue growth of 10.9% YoY
  • + Excellent free cash flow generation at 49.9% FCF margin, covering distributions
  • + Substantial asset base of $20B with diversified mortgage portfolio
  • + Operating cash flow of $275.9M provides consistent cash generation

BXMT Risks

  • ! Critically low interest coverage ratio of 0.3x indicates debt servicing stress and vulnerability to rate increases
  • ! Extreme leverage at 4.01x debt/equity ratio creates refinancing and insolvency risk
  • ! ROE of 3.1% and ROA of 0.5% are very low, indicating poor capital efficiency
  • ! Flat net income growth (0.0% YoY) despite revenue growth suggests margin compression or rising costs
  • ! High interest rate sensitivity typical of mortgage REITs creates earnings volatility risk

Key Metrics to Watch

BXMT Financial Metrics

Revenue
$552.8M
Net Income
$109.6M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.64
Free Cash Flow
$275.9M
Total Assets
$20.0B
Cash Position
$452.5M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 49.9% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

BXMT Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 20.5%
Net Margin 19.8%
ROE 3.1%
ROA 0.5%
FCF Margin 49.9%

BXMT vs Default Sector

How BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. compares to Default sector averages

Net Margin
BXMT 19.8%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
BXMT Sector
ROE
BXMT 3.1%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
BXMT Sector
Current Ratio
BXMT 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
BXMT Sector
Debt/Equity
BXMT 4.0x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
BXMT Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

BXMT Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
4.01x
Debt/Assets
82.5%
Interest Coverage
0.33x
Long-term Debt
$14.0B

BXMT 5-Year Financial Trend

BXMT 5-year financial data: Year 2013: Revenue $37.0M, Net Income N/A, EPS N/A. Year 2014: Revenue $58.3M, Net Income N/A, EPS N/A.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC.'s revenue has grown significantly by 57% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $1.43 reflects profitable operations.

BXMT Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
49.9%
Free cash flow / Revenue

BXMT Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$275.9M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$109.5M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Dividends Paid
$322.7M
Returned to shareholders

BXMT SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (CIK: 0001061630)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 18, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1773873092.xml View →
Feb 11, 2026 8-K d10015d8k.htm View →
Feb 11, 2026 8-K bxmt-20260211.htm View →
Feb 11, 2026 10-K bxmt-20251231.htm View →
Jan 20, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1768953811.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about BXMT

What is the AI rating for BXMT?

BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (BXMT) has an AI rating of HOLD with 62% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are BXMT's key strengths?

Strong net profit margin of 19.8% with revenue growth of 10.9% YoY. Excellent free cash flow generation at 49.9% FCF margin, covering distributions.

What are the risks of investing in BXMT?

Critically low interest coverage ratio of 0.3x indicates debt servicing stress and vulnerability to rate increases. Extreme leverage at 4.01x debt/equity ratio creates refinancing and insolvency risk.

What is BXMT's revenue and growth?

BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. reported revenue of $552.8M.

Does BXMT pay dividends?

BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. pays dividends, with $322.7M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find BXMT SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (CIK: 0001061630) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is BXMT's EPS?

BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. has a diluted EPS of $0.64.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 21, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI