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BLBD Stock Analysis - Blue Bird Corp AI Rating

BLBD Nasdaq Truck & Bus Bodies CIK: 0001589526
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 21, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-27
AI Rating
BUY
75% Confidence

📊 BLBD Key Takeaways

Revenue: $333.1M
Net Margin: 9.2%
Free Cash Flow: $31.1M
Current Ratio: 1.81x
Debt/Equity: 0.31x
EPS: $0.94
AI Rating: BUY with 75% confidence

Investment Thesis

Blue Bird Corp demonstrates solid fundamental strength with double-digit profitability, excellent cash generation, and a fortress balance sheet featuring $241.7M in cash against only $84.2M in debt. Despite flat revenue growth, the company achieved 21% net income growth through operational efficiency, indicating pricing power and cost control in the bus manufacturing sector.

BLBD Strengths

  • + Exceptional liquidity position with $241.7M cash and 1.81x current ratio provides financial flexibility and stability
  • + Strong profitability with 9.2% net margin and 21% YoY net income growth despite zero revenue growth demonstrates operational leverage and margin expansion
  • + Robust free cash flow generation of $31.1M (9.3% FCF margin) with capital intensity of only 1.7% supports dividends and debt reduction
  • + Conservative leverage at 0.31x debt-to-equity with exceptional 24.1x interest coverage ratio indicates minimal financial risk
  • + Solid ROE of 11.3% and ROA of 4.8% show efficient capital deployment in the capital-intensive bus manufacturing industry

BLBD Risks

  • ! Zero revenue growth indicates market stagnation or competitive pressure in the school bus/transit bus market requiring investigation
  • ! Heavy dependence on a cyclical industry (bus manufacturing) with limited diversification exposes company to economic downturns and fleet replacement cycles
  • ! Low gross margin of 21.4% provides limited buffer against input cost inflation or commodity price spikes
  • ! Modest insider activity (2 Form 4 filings in 90 days) suggests limited insider confidence or trading activity
  • ! Operating margin of 11.3% is respectable but limits room for error if operational efficiencies cannot be sustained

Key Metrics to Watch

BLBD Financial Metrics

Revenue
$333.1M
Net Income
$30.8M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.94
Free Cash Flow
$31.1M
Total Assets
$642.3M
Cash Position
$241.7M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Blue Bird Corp presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

BLBD Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 21.4%
Operating Margin 11.3%
Net Margin 9.2%
ROE 11.3%
ROA 4.8%
FCF Margin 9.3%

BLBD vs Default Sector

How Blue Bird Corp compares to Default sector averages

Net Margin
BLBD 9.2%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
BLBD Sector
ROE
BLBD 11.3%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
BLBD Sector
Current Ratio
BLBD 1.8x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
BLBD Sector
Debt/Equity
BLBD 0.3x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
BLBD Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

BLBD Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.81x
Quick Ratio
1.21x
Debt/Equity
0.31x
Debt/Assets
1.3%
Interest Coverage
24.06x
Long-term Debt
$84.2M

BLBD 5-Year Financial Trend

BLBD 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $1.0B, Net Income $24.3M, EPS $0.90. Year 2022: Revenue $879.2M, Net Income $12.2M, EPS $0.45. Year 2023: Revenue $1.1B, Net Income -$289.0K, EPS $-0.01. Year 2024: Revenue $1.3B, Net Income -$45.8M, EPS $-1.48. Year 2025: Revenue $1.5B, Net Income $23.8M, EPS $0.74.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Blue Bird Corp's revenue has grown significantly by 45% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $0.74 reflects profitable operations.

BLBD Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
9.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

BLBD Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Blue Bird Corp including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $313.9M $28.7M $0.86
Q3 2025 $333.4M $28.7M $0.85
Q2 2025 $345.9M $26.0M $0.79
Q1 2025 $313.9M $26.2M $0.81
Q3 2024 $294.3M $5.2M $0.16
Q2 2024 $299.8M -$4.2M $-0.13
Q1 2024 $235.7M -$11.3M $-0.35
Q3 2023 $206.1M $5.2M $0.16

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

BLBD Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$36.6M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$2.4M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$5.5M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

BLBD SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Blue Bird Corp (CIK: 0001589526)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 11, 2026 8-K blbd-20260311.htm View →
Mar 5, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1772725493.xml View →
Feb 20, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1771623069.xml View →
Feb 17, 2026 8-K blbd-20260215.htm View →
Feb 4, 2026 10-Q blbd-20251227.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about BLBD

What is the AI rating for BLBD?

Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) has an AI rating of BUY with 75% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are BLBD's key strengths?

Exceptional liquidity position with $241.7M cash and 1.81x current ratio provides financial flexibility and stability. Strong profitability with 9.2% net margin and 21% YoY net income growth despite zero revenue growth demonstrates operational leverage and margin expansion.

What are the risks of investing in BLBD?

Zero revenue growth indicates market stagnation or competitive pressure in the school bus/transit bus market requiring investigation. Heavy dependence on a cyclical industry (bus manufacturing) with limited diversification exposes company to economic downturns and fleet replacement cycles.

What is BLBD's revenue and growth?

Blue Bird Corp reported revenue of $333.1M.

Does BLBD pay dividends?

Blue Bird Corp does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find BLBD SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Blue Bird Corp (CIK: 0001589526) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is BLBD's EPS?

Blue Bird Corp has a diluted EPS of $0.94.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 21, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-27 | Powered by Claude AI