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BAERW Stock Analysis - Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. AI Rating

BAERW Nasdaq Services-Business Services, NEC DE CIK: 0001941536
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 20, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
AI Rating
SELL
85% Confidence

📊 BAERW Key Takeaways

Revenue: $122.8M
Net Margin: 3.4%
Free Cash Flow: $-64.2M
Current Ratio: 2.43x
Debt/Equity: N/A
EPS: $-0.42
AI Rating: SELL with 85% confidence

Investment Thesis

Bridger Aerospace faces severe financial distress with negative stockholders' equity of -$342.6M, indicating the company is technically insolvent and liabilities exceed all assets. Despite revenue growth of 24.6% and positive net income, the company is burning cash with negative free cash flow of -$64.2M and cannot cover interest expenses (0.7x coverage ratio), creating imminent solvency risk.

BAERW Strengths

  • + Revenue growth of 24.6% YoY demonstrates market demand for services
  • + Gross margin of 42.1% shows reasonable pricing power and operational efficiency at production level
  • + Positive operating cash flow of $16.7M indicates core business can generate cash from operations

BAERW Risks

  • ! Negative stockholders' equity of -$342.6M represents technical insolvency with liabilities exceeding assets by $342.6M
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$64.2M with high capital expenditure of $80.9M is unsustainable and indicates cash burn despite revenue growth
  • ! Interest coverage ratio of 0.7x means operating income cannot cover debt service obligations, creating default risk on $222.5M long-term debt

Key Metrics to Watch

BAERW Financial Metrics

Revenue
$122.8M
Net Income
$4.1M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.42
Free Cash Flow
$-64.2M
Total Assets
$330.3M
Cash Position
$31.4M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Strong liquidity with a 2.43x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.

BAERW Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 42.1%
Operating Margin 3.2%
Net Margin 3.4%
ROE N/A
ROA 1.3%
FCF Margin -52.3%

BAERW vs Default Sector

How Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. compares to Default sector averages

Net Margin
BAERW 3.4%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
BAERW Sector
ROE
BAERW 0.0%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
BAERW Sector
Current Ratio
BAERW 2.4x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
BAERW Sector
Debt/Equity
BAERW 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
BAERW Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

BAERW Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
2.43x
Quick Ratio
2.43x
Debt/Equity
N/A
Debt/Assets
80.4%
Interest Coverage
0.66x
Long-term Debt
$222.5M

BAERW 5-Year Financial Trend

BAERW 5-year financial data: Year 2023: Revenue $66.7M, Net Income -$42.1M, EPS $-8.20. Year 2024: Revenue $98.6M, Net Income -$77.4M, EPS $-1.00. Year 2025: Revenue $122.8M, Net Income -$15.6M, EPS $-0.81.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 84% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $-0.81 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

BAERW Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-52.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

BAERW Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $64.5M $308.0K $-0.02
Q2 2025 $13.0M $308.0K $-0.12
Q1 2025 $5.5M -$15.5M $-0.41
Q3 2024 $53.6M -$2.7M $0.22
Q2 2024 $11.6M -$10.0M $-0.33
Q1 2024 $365.0K -$20.1M $-0.55
Q3 2023 $32.5M -$4.6M $0.15
Q2 2023 $11.6M -$4.6M $0.44

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

BAERW Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$16.7M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$80.9M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

BAERW SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (CIK: 0001941536)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 11, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 11, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 11, 2026 8-K bridger_8k.htm View →
Mar 6, 2026 10-K baer-20251231.htm View →
Mar 5, 2026 8-K f8k_030526.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about BAERW

What is the AI rating for BAERW?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAERW) has an AI rating of SELL with 85% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are BAERW's key strengths?

Revenue growth of 24.6% YoY demonstrates market demand for services. Gross margin of 42.1% shows reasonable pricing power and operational efficiency at production level.

What are the risks of investing in BAERW?

Negative stockholders' equity of -$342.6M represents technical insolvency with liabilities exceeding assets by $342.6M. Negative free cash flow of -$64.2M with high capital expenditure of $80.9M is unsustainable and indicates cash burn despite revenue growth.

What is BAERW's revenue and growth?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $122.8M.

Does BAERW pay dividends?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find BAERW SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (CIK: 0001941536) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is BAERW's EPS?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $-0.42.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 20, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI