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ATO Stock Analysis - ATMOS ENERGY CORP AI Rating

ATO NYSE Natural Gas Distribution TX CIK: 0000731802
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 20, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
AI Rating
HOLD
65% Confidence

📊 ATO Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.3B
Net Margin: 30.0%
Free Cash Flow: $-725.3M
Current Ratio: 1.13x
Debt/Equity: 0.67x
EPS: $2.44
AI Rating: HOLD with 65% confidence

Investment Thesis

Atmos Energy demonstrates solid operational profitability with strong margins (38.3% operating margin) and consistent revenue growth (+12.9% YoY), but fundamental concerns about cash flow generation and capital intensity limit investment enthusiasm. The company's negative free cash flow of -$725.3M combined with high capital expenditure relative to operating cash flow raises questions about sustainable dividend capacity and financial flexibility.

ATO Strengths

  • + Strong operating margins of 38.3% indicating efficient utility operations
  • + Consistent revenue growth of 12.9% YoY with net income stability
  • + Reasonable leverage at 0.67x debt-to-equity with 4.8x interest coverage
  • + Solid cash position of $367M providing operational cushion

ATO Risks

  • ! Severe negative free cash flow of -$725.3M with FCF margin of -54%, unsustainable for long-term growth
  • ! Capital expenditure of $1.0B significantly exceeds operating cash flow of $308.1M, suggesting dependency on external financing
  • ! Low ROE of 2.8% and ROA of 1.4% indicate poor capital efficiency despite high profitability ratios
  • ! High capital intensity in utility sector creates ongoing refinancing requirements and cash flow pressure

Key Metrics to Watch

ATO Financial Metrics

Revenue
$1.3B
Net Income
$403.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$2.44
Free Cash Flow
$-725.3M
Total Assets
$29.8B
Cash Position
$367.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

ATMOS ENERGY CORP presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

ATO Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 34.9%
Operating Margin 38.3%
Net Margin 30.0%
ROE 2.8%
ROA 1.4%
FCF Margin -54.0%

ATO vs Energy Sector

How ATMOS ENERGY CORP compares to Energy sector averages

Net Margin
ATO 30.0%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
ATO Sector
ROE
ATO 2.8%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
ATO Sector
Current Ratio
ATO 1.1x
vs
Sector Avg 1.3x
ATO Sector
Debt/Equity
ATO 0.7x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
ATO Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

ATO Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.13x
Quick Ratio
1.13x
Debt/Equity
0.67x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
4.80x
Long-term Debt
$9.5B

ATO 5-Year Financial Trend

ATO 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $3.4B, Net Income $511.4M, EPS $4.35. Year 2022: Revenue $4.2B, Net Income $601.4M, EPS $4.89. Year 2023: Revenue $4.3B, Net Income $665.6M, EPS $5.12. Year 2024: Revenue $4.3B, Net Income $774.4M, EPS $5.60. Year 2025: Revenue $4.7B, Net Income $885.9M, EPS $6.10.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: ATMOS ENERGY CORP's revenue has grown significantly by 38% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $6.10 reflects profitable operations.

ATO Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-54.0%
Free cash flow / Revenue

ATO Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for ATMOS ENERGY CORP including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $1.2B $351.9M $2.23
Q3 2025 $701.5M $165.6M $1.08
Q2 2025 $1.6B $311.3M $2.85
Q1 2025 $1.2B $311.3M $2.08
Q3 2024 $662.7M $137.8M $0.94
Q2 2024 $1.5B $271.9M $2.48
Q1 2024 $1.2B $271.9M $1.91
Q3 2023 $662.7M $128.5M $0.92

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

ATO Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$308.1M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$1.0B
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$160.4M
Returned to shareholders

ATO SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for ATMOS ENERGY CORP (CIK: 0000731802)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about ATO

What is the AI rating for ATO?

ATMOS ENERGY CORP (ATO) has an AI rating of HOLD with 65% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are ATO's key strengths?

Strong operating margins of 38.3% indicating efficient utility operations. Consistent revenue growth of 12.9% YoY with net income stability.

What are the risks of investing in ATO?

Severe negative free cash flow of -$725.3M with FCF margin of -54%, unsustainable for long-term growth. Capital expenditure of $1.0B significantly exceeds operating cash flow of $308.1M, suggesting dependency on external financing.

What is ATO's revenue and growth?

ATMOS ENERGY CORP reported revenue of $1.3B.

Does ATO pay dividends?

ATMOS ENERGY CORP pays dividends, with $160.4M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find ATO SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for ATMOS ENERGY CORP (CIK: 0000731802) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is ATO's EPS?

ATMOS ENERGY CORP has a diluted EPS of $2.44.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 20, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI