Investment Thesis
Aspen Group is in severe financial distress with persistent unprofitability, negative cash flows, and deteriorating fundamentals. The company generated -$7.6M net loss on $51.5M revenue with negative operating cash flow of -$4.5M, indicating structural operational problems. With minimal cash reserves of $1.6M relative to burn rate, the company faces critical liquidity challenges.
ASPU Strengths
- Moderate leverage with debt-to-equity of 0.28x provides some financial flexibility
- Current ratio of 1.29x indicates short-term liabilities are covered by current assets
- Operates in education sector with potential growth opportunities if operations improve
ASPU Risks
- Severe unprofitability with -14.7% net margin and -10.6% operating margin indicating fundamental business model issues
- Negative operating cash flow of -$4.5M and free cash flow of -5.6M unsustainable without significant operational turnaround or external funding
- Critical liquidity crisis with only $1.6M cash against $51.9M liabilities and ongoing monthly burn rate of ~$375K based on operating cash flow
- Revenue flat year-over-year with -21.0% ROE and -8.6% ROA indicating poor capital deployment
- Negative interest coverage of -2.7x signals inability to service debt from operating income
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating cash flow trend - must return to positive within 2-3 quarters
- Cash balance and liquidity runway - critical given current burn rate
- Revenue growth and operating margin improvement - path to profitability required
- Debt refinancing and covenant compliance status
- Customer retention and enrollment trends in core education programs
ASPU Financial Metrics
ASPU Profitability Ratios
ASPU Balance Sheet & Liquidity
ASPU 5-Year Financial Trend
5-Year Trend Summary: ASPEN GROUP, INC.'s revenue has grown significantly by 125% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $-0.04 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.
ASPU Growth Metrics (YoY)
ASPU Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2023 | $15.6M | -$1.6M | $-0.06 |
| Q2 2023 | $17.1M | -$2.3M | $-0.09 |
| Q1 2023 | $18.9M | -$870.9K | $-0.03 |
| Q3 2022 | $16.6M | -$2.8M | $-0.11 |
| Q2 2022 | $17.0M | -$2.9M | $-0.11 |
| Q1 2022 | $15.2M | -$870.9K | $-0.03 |
| Q3 2021 | $12.5M | -$2.3M | $-0.11 |
| Q2 2021 | $12.1M | -$638.2K | $-0.03 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
ASPU Capital Allocation
ASPU SEC Filings
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for ASPEN GROUP, INC. (CIK: 0001487198)