← Back to All US Stocks

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

FLY Nasdaq Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts DE CIK: 0001860160
Recently Updated • Analysis: May 6, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
75% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
SELL
72% Conf
SELL
78% Conf

📊 FLY Key Takeaways

Revenue: $80.9M
Net Margin: -119.5%
Free Cash Flow: $-78.9M
Current Ratio: 2.53x
Debt/Equity: 0.02x
EPS: $-0.61
AI Rating: SELL with 72% confidence
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) receives a SELL rating with 75% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $80.9M, net profit margin of -119.5%, and return on equity (ROE) of -8.7%, Firefly Aerospace Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Market sector. Below is our complete FLY stock analysis for 2026.

Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) a Good Investment?

Claude

Firefly Aerospace exhibits exceptional revenue growth of 163% YoY, but remains deeply unprofitable with operating losses of -95.7M and negative free cash flow of -78.9M, indicating the business model has not yet achieved operational sustainability. Despite a solid balance sheet with 326.2M in cash and low leverage (0.02x debt/equity), the company is burning approximately 79M annually, providing roughly 4 years of runway at current burn rates without significant operational improvement or additional external funding.

ChatGPT

Firefly Aerospace is delivering exceptional top-line growth, but the underlying fundamentals remain weak because losses and cash burn are still far larger than gross profit generation. The balance sheet is currently strong, with substantial cash, high liquidity, and modest leverage, but growth quality is questionable until operating leverage improves materially and free cash flow trends toward sustainability.

Why Buy Firefly Aerospace Inc. Stock? FLY Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Exceptional revenue growth of 163% YoY demonstrates strong market demand for products/services
  • + Solid balance sheet with 1.5B in total assets, 1.1B stockholders' equity, and low debt burden (0.02x D/E ratio)
  • + Reasonable gross margin of 21.6% suggests underlying product economics are viable at manufacturing level
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue growth is very strong at +163.0% YoY, showing rising commercial traction
  • + Liquidity is robust with $792.97M in cash and a 4.51x current ratio
  • + Leverage remains manageable with debt-to-equity of 0.24x and a large equity base

FLY Stock Risks: Firefly Aerospace Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Severe operating losses with -118.3% operating margin and -119.5% net margin indicate business is far from profitability despite massive revenue growth
  • ! Negative operating cash flow of -62.5M and free cash flow of -78.9M show the company cannot sustain operations without external funding or balance sheet depletion
  • ! Negative interest coverage (-6.0x) due to operating losses; with current burn rate, 326.2M cash provides limited sustainability window without achieving profitability
ChatGPT
  • ! Operating and net margins are deeply negative, indicating the business model is not yet close to profitable at scale
  • ! Free cash flow of -$237.75M and negative operating cash flow create continued dependence on cash reserves or future financing
  • ! Interest coverage is negative, highlighting weak earnings support for debt obligations

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Path to operating profitability and timeline to positive operating cash flow
  • * Cash runway and whether FCF margin improves with revenue scaling and operational leverage
  • * Gross margin sustainability and whether SG&A expenses decrease as percentage of revenue
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin improvement relative to revenue growth
  • * Free cash flow burn and quarterly cash balance trend

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$80.9M
Net Income
$-96.7M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.61
Free Cash Flow
$-78.9M
Total Assets
$1.5B
Cash Position
$326.2M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Strong liquidity with a 2.53x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.

FLY Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 21.6%
Operating Margin -118.3%
Net Margin -119.5%
ROE -8.7%
ROA -6.5%
FCF Margin -97.5%

FLY vs Market Sector: How Firefly Aerospace Inc. Compares

How Firefly Aerospace Inc. compares to Market sector averages

Net Margin
FLY -119.5%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
FLY Sector
ROE
FLY -8.7%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
FLY Sector
Current Ratio
FLY 2.5x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
FLY Sector
Debt/Equity
FLY 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
FLY Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. Stock Overvalued? FLY Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Firefly Aerospace Inc. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Market sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
-8.7%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
-119.5%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.02x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. Balance Sheet: FLY Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
2.53x
Quick Ratio
2.53x
Debt/Equity
0.02x
Debt/Assets
25.9%
Interest Coverage
-6.01x
Long-term Debt
$27.1M

FLY Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

FLY 5-year financial data: Year 2025: Revenue $159.9M, Net Income -$135.5M, EPS $-13.05.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 0% decline. The most recent EPS of $-13.05 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

FLY Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-97.5%
Free cash flow / Revenue

FLY Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Firefly Aerospace Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $55.9M -$60.1M $-0.61
Q3 2025 $22.4M -$40.8M $-1.50
Q2 2025 $15.5M -$52.8M $-4.60

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
-$62.5M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$16.3M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

FLY SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (CIK: 0001860160)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
May 4, 2026 10-Q fly-20260331.htm View →
May 4, 2026 8-K fly-20260504.htm View →
Apr 21, 2026 8-K fly-20260415.htm View →
Apr 20, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Apr 17, 2026 DEF 14A fly-20260417.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about FLY

What is the AI rating for FLY?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 75% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are FLY's key strengths?

Claude: Exceptional revenue growth of 163% YoY demonstrates strong market demand for products/services. Solid balance sheet with 1.5B in total assets, 1.1B stockholders' equity, and low debt burden (0.02x D/E ratio). ChatGPT: Revenue growth is very strong at +163.0% YoY, showing rising commercial traction. Liquidity is robust with $792.97M in cash and a 4.51x current ratio.

What are the risks of investing in FLY?

Claude: Severe operating losses with -118.3% operating margin and -119.5% net margin indicate business is far from profitability despite massive revenue growth. Negative operating cash flow of -62.5M and free cash flow of -78.9M show the company cannot sustain operations without external funding or balance sheet depletion. ChatGPT: Operating and net margins are deeply negative, indicating the business model is not yet close to profitable at scale. Free cash flow of -$237.75M and negative operating cash flow create continued dependence on cash reserves or future financing.

What is FLY's revenue and growth?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. reported revenue of $80.9M.

Does FLY pay dividends?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find FLY SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (CIK: 0001860160) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is FLY's EPS?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. has a diluted EPS of $-0.61.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is FLY a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. has a SELL rating with 75% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is FLY stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for FLY: ROE of -8.7% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of -119.5% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy FLY stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Firefly Aerospace Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is FLY's free cash flow?

Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s operating cash flow is $-62.5M, with capital expenditures of $16.3M. FCF margin is -97.5%.

How does FLY compare to other Market stocks?

Vs Default sector averages: Net margin -119.5% (avg: 12%), ROE -8.7% (avg: 15%), current ratio 2.53 (avg: 1.8).

Top Rated Stocks
AAPL 92% MSFT 92% GCT 92% FAST 92% DT 92% DECK 92% DAVEW 92% CTAS 92% CRUS 92% CRMD 92%
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 6, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI