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ESTC Stock Analysis 2026 - Elastic N.V. AI Rating

ESTC NYSE Services-Prepackaged Software P7 CIK: 0001707753
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 24, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-01-31
HOLD
62% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 ESTC Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.3B
Net Margin: -5.3%
Free Cash Flow: $172.0M
Current Ratio: 1.82x
Debt/Equity: 0.72x
EPS: $-0.64
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence

Is ESTC a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis

Claude

Elastic demonstrates strong revenue growth (17% YoY) and exceptional cash generation (13.3% FCF margin) with a healthy balance sheet, but persistent unprofitability (-5.3% net margin) and negative earnings momentum (-276.3% EPS decline) create uncertainty about the path to sustained profitability. The company's software-as-a-service model shows operational promise with improving operating cash flow, yet operating losses and declining earnings quality warrant caution.

Why Buy ESTC? Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong revenue growth of 17% YoY indicates solid market demand for search and analytics platform
  • + Excellent free cash flow generation of $172M (13.3% FCF margin) demonstrates underlying business strength despite GAAP losses
  • + Solid balance sheet with $737.2M cash, low leverage (0.72x Debt/Equity), and strong liquidity (1.82x current ratio)
  • + High gross margin of 76.3% typical of high-quality SaaS businesses with strong pricing power

ESTC Investment Risks to Consider

Claude
  • ! Persistent unprofitability with -5.3% net margin and -1.3% operating margin despite scale indicates challenges in converting revenue to profits
  • ! Sharp deterioration in EPS performance (-276.3% YoY decline) suggests increasing losses and negative earnings momentum
  • ! Negative interest coverage ratio (-0.9x) indicates inability to cover debt service from operating earnings, relying on cash reserves
  • ! Negative ROE (-8.6%) and ROA (-2.8%) demonstrate inefficient capital utilization and shareholder value destruction

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating margin trend toward profitability - critical to achieve positive operating income within 2-3 quarters
  • * Net income and EPS trajectory - need to see reversal of losses to demonstrate sustainable business model
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability - ensure FCF generation continues as company scales
  • * Cash burn rate and runway - monitor depletion of $737M cash reserve if losses continue

ESTC Financial Metrics

Revenue
$1.3B
Net Income
$-68.1M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.64
Free Cash Flow
$172.0M
Total Assets
$2.4B
Cash Position
$737.2M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Elastic N.V. presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

ESTC Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 76.3%
Operating Margin -1.3%
Net Margin -5.3%
ROE -8.6%
ROA -2.8%
FCF Margin 13.3%

ESTC vs Technology Sector

How Elastic N.V. compares to Technology sector averages

Net Margin
ESTC -5.3%
vs
Sector Avg 18.0%
ESTC Sector
ROE
ESTC -8.6%
vs
Sector Avg 22.0%
ESTC Sector
Current Ratio
ESTC 1.8x
vs
Sector Avg 2.5x
ESTC Sector
Debt/Equity
ESTC 0.7x
vs
Sector Avg 0.5x
ESTC Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is ESTC Overvalued or Undervalued?

Based on fundamental analysis, Elastic N.V. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Technology sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
-8.6%
Sector avg: 22%
Net Profit Margin
-5.3%
Sector avg: 18%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.72x
Sector avg: 0.5x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

ESTC Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.82x
Quick Ratio
1.82x
Debt/Equity
0.72x
Debt/Assets
67.6%
Interest Coverage
-0.90x
Long-term Debt
$570.6M

ESTC 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis

ESTC 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $608.5M, Net Income -$102.3M, EPS N/A. Year 2022: Revenue $862.4M, Net Income -$167.2M, EPS $-2.12. Year 2023: Revenue $1.1B, Net Income -$129.4M, EPS $-1.48. Year 2024: Revenue $1.3B, Net Income -$203.8M, EPS $-2.20. Year 2025: Revenue $1.5B, Net Income -$236.2M, EPS $-2.47.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Elastic N.V.'s revenue has grown significantly by 144% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $-2.47 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

ESTC Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
13.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

ESTC Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Elastic N.V. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2026 $382.1M $7.8M $0.07
Q2 2026 $365.4M -$25.5M $-0.25
Q1 2026 $347.4M -$24.6M $-0.23
Q3 2025 $328.0M -$17.1M $-0.16
Q2 2025 $310.6M -$24.8M $-0.25
Q3 2024 $274.6M -$72.6M $-0.76
Q2 2024 $264.4M -$24.8M $-0.74
Q1 2024 $250.1M -$48.5M N/A

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

ESTC Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$174.2M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$300.1M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$2.2M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

ESTC SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Elastic N.V. (CIK: 0001707753)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about ESTC

What is the AI rating for ESTC?

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) has an AI rating of HOLD with 62% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are ESTC's key strengths?

Claude: Strong revenue growth of 17% YoY indicates solid market demand for search and analytics platform. Excellent free cash flow generation of $172M (13.3% FCF margin) demonstrates underlying business strength despite GAAP losses.

What are the risks of investing in ESTC?

Claude: Persistent unprofitability with -5.3% net margin and -1.3% operating margin despite scale indicates challenges in converting revenue to profits. Sharp deterioration in EPS performance (-276.3% YoY decline) suggests increasing losses and negative earnings momentum.

What is ESTC's revenue and growth?

Elastic N.V. reported revenue of $1.3B.

Does ESTC pay dividends?

Elastic N.V. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find ESTC SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Elastic N.V. (CIK: 0001707753) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is ESTC's EPS?

Elastic N.V. has a diluted EPS of $-0.64.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is ESTC a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in March 2026, Elastic N.V. has a HOLD rating with 62% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is ESTC stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for ESTC: ROE of -8.6% (sector avg: 22%), net margin of -5.3% (sector avg: 18%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy ESTC stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Elastic N.V. a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is ESTC's free cash flow?

Elastic N.V.'s operating cash flow is $174.2M, with capital expenditures of $2.2M. FCF margin is 13.3%.

How does ESTC compare to other Technology stocks?

Vs Technology sector averages: Net margin -5.3% (avg: 18%), ROE -8.6% (avg: 22%), current ratio 1.82 (avg: 2.5).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 24, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-01-31 | Powered by Claude AI