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Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

CHDN Nasdaq Services-Racing, Including Track Operation KY CIK: 0000020212
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 29, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
HOLD
62% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
HOLD
45% Conf
HOLD
78% Conf

📊 CHDN Key Takeaways

Revenue: $663.0M
Net Margin: 12.5%
Free Cash Flow: $257.3M
Current Ratio: 0.54x
Debt/Equity: 4.44x
EPS: $5.49
AI Rating: HOLD with 45% confidence
Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) receives a HOLD rating with 62% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $663.0M, net profit margin of 12.5%, and return on equity (ROE) of 7.6%, Churchill Downs Inc demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Services sector. Below is our complete CHDN stock analysis for 2026.

Is Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) a Good Investment?

Claude

Churchill Downs demonstrates strong cash flow generation and decent operating margins, but faces significant operational challenges: 1082.8% revenue growth yields only 0.9% net income growth, indicating acquisition integration or profitability headwinds. Extreme leverage (4.44x Debt/Equity) with weak interest coverage (2.0x) and poor liquidity (0.54x current ratio) create refinancing risk and limit financial flexibility.

ChatGPT

Churchill Downs shows strong underlying profitability, with a 23.4% operating margin and solid interest coverage of 9.7x, indicating the core business can generate meaningful earnings despite a capital-intensive profile. However, the reported revenue surge appears low quality because net income grew only 0.9% and diluted EPS declined 3.9%, while leverage is very high and liquidity is weak. Fundamentally, this looks like a profitable but balance-sheet-constrained business where debt reduction and cleaner cash flow conversion matter more than headline growth.

Why Buy Churchill Downs Inc Stock? CHDN Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong free cash flow generation ($257.3M) with 38.8% FCF margin demonstrates underlying operational cash generation capacity
  • + Solid operating margin of 21.6% indicates core business unit profitability and operational control
  • + Substantial operating income of $143M provides cushion for debt servicing despite leverage concerns
ChatGPT
  • + Strong operating profitability with a 23.4% operating margin and $683.8M in operating income
  • + Positive free cash flow generation of $208.8M provides some financial flexibility
  • + Interest coverage of 9.7x suggests current earnings can support debt servicing

CHDN Stock Risks: Churchill Downs Inc Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Severe growth quality deterioration: 1082.8% revenue growth coupled with 0.9% net income growth suggests failed acquisition integration, one-time revenue recognition, or operational delevering
  • ! Excessive leverage (4.44x Debt/Equity) with dangerously low interest coverage (2.0x) leaves minimal margin for error in economic downturns or interest rate increases
  • ! Acute liquidity crisis with current ratio of 0.54x and quick ratio of 0.53x indicates potential working capital strain despite strong FCF
ChatGPT
  • ! Very high leverage with $5.07B of long-term debt and 5.02x debt-to-equity
  • ! Weak liquidity with a 0.60x current ratio and 0.59x quick ratio
  • ! Growth quality is questionable because revenue jumped 1082.8% while net income was nearly flat and diluted EPS declined

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Net income margin trend and year-over-year earnings growth to validate sustainable profitability on enlarged revenue base
  • * Interest coverage ratio improvement and debt reduction progress to reduce refinancing risk
  • * Cash conversion cycle and working capital management to address liquidity position and current ratio recovery
ChatGPT
  • * Debt reduction progress and debt/EBITDA or debt/equity trend
  • * Operating cash flow and free cash flow conversion relative to net income

Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$663.0M
Net Income
$83.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$5.49
Free Cash Flow
$257.3M
Total Assets
$7.5B
Cash Position
$200.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 38.8% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

CHDN Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 21.6%
Net Margin 12.5%
ROE 7.6%
ROA 1.1%
FCF Margin 38.8%

CHDN vs Services Sector: How Churchill Downs Inc Compares

How Churchill Downs Inc compares to Services sector averages

Net Margin
CHDN 12.5%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
CHDN Sector
ROE
CHDN 7.6%
vs
Sector Avg 16.0%
CHDN Sector
Current Ratio
CHDN 0.5x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
CHDN Sector
Debt/Equity
CHDN 4.4x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
CHDN Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Churchill Downs Inc Stock Overvalued? CHDN Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Churchill Downs Inc shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Services sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
7.6%
Sector avg: 16%
Net Profit Margin
12.5%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
4.44x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Churchill Downs Inc Balance Sheet: CHDN Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.54x
Quick Ratio
0.53x
Debt/Equity
4.44x
Debt/Assets
84.7%
Interest Coverage
2.03x
Long-term Debt
$4.9B

CHDN Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

CHDN 5-year financial data: Year 2023: Revenue $2.5B, Net Income $249.1M, EPS $3.18. Year 2024: Revenue $2.7B, Net Income $439.4M, EPS N/A. Year 2025: Revenue $2.9B, Net Income $417.3M, EPS N/A.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Churchill Downs Inc's revenue has grown significantly by 19% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $3.18 reflects profitable operations.

CHDN Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
38.8%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CHDN Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Churchill Downs Inc including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $643.0M $77.0M $1.02
Q3 2025 $628.5M $38.1M $0.54
Q2 2025 $890.7M $76.7M $2.79
Q1 2025 $590.9M $76.7M $1.02
Q3 2024 $572.5M $61.0M $0.79
Q2 2024 $768.5M $80.4M $1.86
Q1 2024 $559.5M $80.4M $1.08
Q3 2023 $383.1M $42.1M $0.74

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Churchill Downs Inc Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$295.0M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$37.7M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$31.0M
Returned to shareholders

CHDN SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Churchill Downs Inc (CIK: 0000020212)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 23, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1776974634.xml View →
Apr 23, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1776974630.xml View →
Apr 23, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1776974625.xml View →
Apr 23, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1776974620.xml View →
Apr 23, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1776974616.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CHDN

What is the AI rating for CHDN?

Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) has a Combined AI Rating of HOLD from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 62% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CHDN's key strengths?

Claude: Strong free cash flow generation ($257.3M) with 38.8% FCF margin demonstrates underlying operational cash generation capacity. Solid operating margin of 21.6% indicates core business unit profitability and operational control. ChatGPT: Strong operating profitability with a 23.4% operating margin and $683.8M in operating income. Positive free cash flow generation of $208.8M provides some financial flexibility.

What are the risks of investing in CHDN?

Claude: Severe growth quality deterioration: 1082.8% revenue growth coupled with 0.9% net income growth suggests failed acquisition integration, one-time revenue recognition, or operational delevering. Excessive leverage (4.44x Debt/Equity) with dangerously low interest coverage (2.0x) leaves minimal margin for error in economic downturns or interest rate increases. ChatGPT: Very high leverage with $5.07B of long-term debt and 5.02x debt-to-equity. Weak liquidity with a 0.60x current ratio and 0.59x quick ratio.

What is CHDN's revenue and growth?

Churchill Downs Inc reported revenue of $663.0M.

Does CHDN pay dividends?

Churchill Downs Inc pays dividends, with $31.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find CHDN SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Churchill Downs Inc (CIK: 0000020212) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CHDN's EPS?

Churchill Downs Inc has a diluted EPS of $5.49.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is CHDN a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Churchill Downs Inc has a HOLD rating with 62% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is CHDN stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for CHDN: ROE of 7.6% (sector avg: 16%), net margin of 12.5% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy CHDN stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Churchill Downs Inc a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is CHDN's free cash flow?

Churchill Downs Inc's operating cash flow is $295.0M, with capital expenditures of $37.7M. FCF margin is 38.8%.

How does CHDN compare to other Services stocks?

Vs Services sector averages: Net margin 12.5% (avg: 10%), ROE 7.6% (avg: 16%), current ratio 0.54 (avg: 1.5).

Is Churchill Downs Inc carrying too much debt?

CHDN has a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.44x, which is above the Services sector average of 0.7x. Combined with a current ratio below 1, this warrants careful monitoring of the balance sheet.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 29, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI