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CGABL Stock Analysis - Carlyle Group Inc. AI Rating

CGABL Nasdaq Investment Advice DE CIK: 0001527166
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 22, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
AI Rating
HOLD
62% Confidence

📊 CGABL Key Takeaways

Revenue: $4.8B
Net Margin: 16.9%
Free Cash Flow: $-3.4B
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 0.92x
EPS: $2.18
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence

Investment Thesis

Carlyle Group demonstrates strong profitability with 24.3% operating margin and substantial revenue growth of 2115.9% YoY, indicating successful asset management and fundraising activities. However, severely negative free cash flow of -3.4B and operating cash outflows of -3.3B raise critical concerns about working capital management and the sustainability of earnings quality, despite healthy debt metrics.

CGABL Strengths

  • + Exceptional revenue growth of 2115.9% YoY reflecting strong asset raising and market demand
  • + Solid profitability with 16.9% net margin and 24.3% operating margin demonstrating operational efficiency
  • + Manageable leverage at 0.92x debt-to-equity with strong 9.4x interest coverage ratio
  • + Substantial cash reserves of 2.0B providing liquidity cushion

CGABL Risks

  • ! Severe negative free cash flow of -3.4B with -70.6% FCF margin indicating cash generation concerns despite reported profitability
  • ! Significant operating cash flow deficit of -3.3B suggesting potential working capital timing issues or non-cash earnings recognition
  • ! Diluted EPS declined 21.3% YoY despite flat net income growth, indicating share dilution and potential valuation pressure
  • ! High insider activity with 31 Form 4 filings in 90 days warrants monitoring for potential insider selling or hedging

Key Metrics to Watch

CGABL Financial Metrics

Revenue
$4.8B
Net Income
$808.7M
EPS (Diluted)
$2.18
Free Cash Flow
$-3.4B
Total Assets
$29.1B
Cash Position
$2.0B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

CGABL Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 24.3%
Net Margin 16.9%
ROE 11.5%
ROA 2.8%
FCF Margin -70.6%

CGABL vs Default Sector

How Carlyle Group Inc. compares to Default sector averages

Net Margin
CGABL 16.9%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
CGABL Sector
ROE
CGABL 11.5%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
CGABL Sector
Current Ratio
CGABL 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
CGABL Sector
Debt/Equity
CGABL 0.9x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
CGABL Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

CGABL Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
0.92x
Debt/Assets
75.8%
Interest Coverage
9.36x
Long-term Debt
$6.5B

CGABL 5-Year Financial Trend

CGABL 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $8.8B, Net Income $380.9M, EPS $2.82. Year 2022: Revenue $8.8B, Net Income $348.2M, EPS $0.97. Year 2023: Revenue $8.8B, Net Income $3.0B, EPS $8.20. Year 2024: Revenue $5.4B, Net Income $1.2B, EPS $3.35. Year 2025: Revenue $5.4B, Net Income -$608.4M, EPS $-1.68.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Carlyle Group Inc.'s revenue has declined by 38% over the 5-year period, indicating business contraction. The most recent EPS of $-1.68 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

CGABL Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-70.6%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CGABL Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Carlyle Group Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $332.7M $900.0K $0.00
Q2 2025 $1.1B $148.2M $0.40
Q1 2025 $688.4M $65.6M $0.18
Q3 2024 $716.6M $81.3M $0.22
Q2 2024 $462.1M $2.3M $0.01
Q1 2024 $688.4M $65.6M $0.18
Q3 2023 $716.6M $81.3M $0.22
Q2 2023 $462.1M $2.3M $0.01

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

CGABL Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
-$3.3B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$686.5M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$99.4M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$505.1M
Returned to shareholders

CGABL SEC Filings

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Carlyle Group Inc. (CIK: 0001527166)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 20, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1774042450.xml View →
Mar 12, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 6, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 2, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Feb 27, 2026 10-K cg-20251231.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CGABL

What is the AI rating for CGABL?

Carlyle Group Inc. (CGABL) has an AI rating of HOLD with 62% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CGABL's key strengths?

Exceptional revenue growth of 2115.9% YoY reflecting strong asset raising and market demand. Solid profitability with 16.9% net margin and 24.3% operating margin demonstrating operational efficiency.

What are the risks of investing in CGABL?

Severe negative free cash flow of -3.4B with -70.6% FCF margin indicating cash generation concerns despite reported profitability. Significant operating cash flow deficit of -3.3B suggesting potential working capital timing issues or non-cash earnings recognition.

What is CGABL's revenue and growth?

Carlyle Group Inc. reported revenue of $4.8B.

Does CGABL pay dividends?

Carlyle Group Inc. pays dividends, with $505.1M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find CGABL SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Carlyle Group Inc. (CIK: 0001527166) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CGABL's EPS?

Carlyle Group Inc. has a diluted EPS of $2.18.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Our AI (Claude) analyzes publicly available SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports to evaluate financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 22, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI