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MTN Stock Analysis 2026 - VAIL RESORTS INC AI Rating

MTN NYSE Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation DE CIK: 0000812011
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 2, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-01-31
HOLD
62% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 MTN Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.4B
Net Margin: 1.7%
Free Cash Flow: $429.3M
Current Ratio: 0.62x
Debt/Equity: 9.70x
EPS: $0.65
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence

Is MTN a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis

Claude

Vail Resorts demonstrates solid operational cash generation with strong free cash flow of $429.3M and a respectable 31.7% FCF margin, indicating efficient core operations. However, the company faces significant financial constraints with a severely overleveraged balance sheet (9.70x debt/equity), weak liquidity position (0.62x current ratio), and deteriorating profitability metrics including declining net income (-6.0% YoY) despite flat revenue growth, limiting financial flexibility and downside protection.

Why Buy MTN? Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong free cash flow generation of $429.3M with 31.7% FCF margin demonstrates operational efficiency
  • + Operating income of $135.2M and 10.0% operating margin show solid core business performance
  • + Positive revenue growth of 2.7% YoY in competitive amusement and recreation sector
  • + Substantial cash position of $384.7M provides near-term operational runway

MTN Investment Risks to Consider

Claude
  • ! Extremely high leverage with 9.70x debt/equity ratio and $2.9B long-term debt limiting financial flexibility and debt service coverage
  • ! Weak liquidity metrics (0.62x current ratio, 0.51x quick ratio) indicate potential near-term cash flow stress and refinancing risk
  • ! Net income declining 6.0% YoY despite revenue growth suggests margin compression and operational challenges
  • ! Very low interest coverage ratio of 1.3x leaves minimal buffer for earnings deterioration or rate increases
  • ! Extremely low ROA of 0.4% and ROE of 7.7% indicate poor capital efficiency relative to large asset base

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Interest coverage ratio trends - critical indicator of debt sustainability
  • * Free cash flow conversion and consistency - key to deleveraging ability
  • * Operating margin stability - early warning of operational headwinds
  • * Debt/Equity ratio progression - measure of balance sheet improvement
  • * Current ratio and working capital trends - indicators of liquidity stress

MTN Financial Metrics

Revenue
$1.4B
Net Income
$23.3M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.65
Free Cash Flow
$429.3M
Total Assets
$5.6B
Cash Position
$384.7M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 31.7% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

MTN Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 10.0%
Net Margin 1.7%
ROE 7.7%
ROA 0.4%
FCF Margin 31.7%

MTN vs Default Sector

How VAIL RESORTS INC compares to Default sector averages

Net Margin
MTN 1.7%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
MTN Sector
ROE
MTN 7.7%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
MTN Sector
Current Ratio
MTN 0.6x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
MTN Sector
Debt/Equity
MTN 9.7x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
MTN Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is MTN Overvalued or Undervalued?

Based on fundamental analysis, VAIL RESORTS INC shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Default sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
7.7%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
1.7%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
9.70x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

MTN Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.62x
Quick Ratio
0.51x
Debt/Equity
9.70x
Debt/Assets
88.5%
Interest Coverage
1.34x
Long-term Debt
$2.9B

MTN 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis

MTN 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $2.3B, Net Income $301.2M, EPS $7.32. Year 2022: Revenue $2.5B, Net Income $98.8M, EPS $2.42. Year 2023: Revenue $2.9B, Net Income $127.9M, EPS $3.13. Year 2024: Revenue $2.9B, Net Income $347.9M, EPS $8.55. Year 2025: Revenue $3.0B, Net Income $265.8M, EPS $6.69.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: VAIL RESORTS INC's revenue has grown significantly by 30% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $6.69 reflects profitable operations.

MTN Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
31.7%
Free cash flow / Revenue

MTN Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for VAIL RESORTS INC including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q2 2026 $1.1B $23.3M $0.65
Q1 2026 $260.3M -$173.3M $-4.62
Q3 2025 $1.3B $362.0M $9.54
Q2 2025 $1.1B $43.8M $1.15
Q1 2025 $258.6M -$172.8M $-4.60
Q3 2024 $1.2B $325.0M $8.18
Q2 2024 $1.1B $43.8M $1.15
Q1 2024 $258.6M -$137.0M $-3.40

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

MTN Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$575.9M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$45.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$146.6M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$158.9M
Returned to shareholders

MTN SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for VAIL RESORTS INC (CIK: 0000812011)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 17, 2026 8-K mtn-20260317.htm View →
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773697844.xml View →
Mar 16, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773697795.xml View →
Mar 9, 2026 10-Q mtn-20260131.htm View →
Mar 9, 2026 8-K mtn-20260309.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about MTN

What is the AI rating for MTN?

VAIL RESORTS INC (MTN) has an AI rating of HOLD with 62% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are MTN's key strengths?

Claude: Strong free cash flow generation of $429.3M with 31.7% FCF margin demonstrates operational efficiency. Operating income of $135.2M and 10.0% operating margin show solid core business performance.

What are the risks of investing in MTN?

Claude: Extremely high leverage with 9.70x debt/equity ratio and $2.9B long-term debt limiting financial flexibility and debt service coverage. Weak liquidity metrics (0.62x current ratio, 0.51x quick ratio) indicate potential near-term cash flow stress and refinancing risk.

What is MTN's revenue and growth?

VAIL RESORTS INC reported revenue of $1.4B.

Does MTN pay dividends?

VAIL RESORTS INC pays dividends, with $158.9M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find MTN SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for VAIL RESORTS INC (CIK: 0000812011) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is MTN's EPS?

VAIL RESORTS INC has a diluted EPS of $0.65.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is MTN a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, VAIL RESORTS INC has a HOLD rating with 62% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is MTN stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for MTN: ROE of 7.7% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 1.7% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy MTN stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives VAIL RESORTS INC a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is MTN's free cash flow?

VAIL RESORTS INC's operating cash flow is $575.9M, with capital expenditures of $146.6M. FCF margin is 31.7%.

How does MTN compare to other Default stocks?

Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 1.7% (avg: 12%), ROE 7.7% (avg: 15%), current ratio 0.62 (avg: 1.8).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 2, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-01-31 | Powered by Claude AI