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MRNA Stock Analysis 2026 - Moderna, Inc. AI Rating

MRNA Nasdaq Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) DE CIK: 0001682852
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 2, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
SELL
85% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 MRNA Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.9B
Net Margin: -145.2%
Free Cash Flow: $-2.1B
Current Ratio: 3.29x
Debt/Equity: 0.07x
EPS: $-7.26
AI Rating: SELL with 85% confidence

Is MRNA a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis

Claude

Moderna is experiencing severe operational distress with negative net income of $2.8B, collapsing revenue (-39.9% YoY), and negative free cash flow of $2.1B, indicating the company cannot sustain current operations without burning cash reserves. While the balance sheet provides a liquidity cushion with $2.6B in cash and a healthy 3.29x current ratio, the deteriorating fundamentals suggest fundamental business challenges requiring urgent strategic repositioning.

Why Buy MRNA? Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong liquidity position with $2.6B cash and 3.29x current ratio provides 12+ months operating runway
  • + Manageable leverage with 0.07x debt-to-equity ratio limits financial distress risk in near-term
  • + Net loss improved 20.8% YoY despite revenue collapse, suggesting some cost control efforts

MRNA Investment Risks to Consider

Claude
  • ! Operating losses of $3.1B with negative 158.1% operating margin indicate core business is unprofitable and unsustainable
  • ! Revenue declined 39.9% YoY suggesting loss of market demand, potentially from COVID vaccine revenue normalization
  • ! Negative free cash flow of $2.1B with -106.2% FCF margin means company is rapidly depleting cash reserves and cannot self-fund operations
  • ! Negative ROE (-32.6%) and ROA (-22.9%) demonstrate value destruction for shareholders

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Quarterly revenue trends and vaccine/pipeline revenue mix to assess market recovery
  • * Monthly cash burn rate to determine cash runway adequacy
  • * Operating expense reduction progress as path to profitability
  • * Pipeline advancement and clinical trial results for non-vaccine candidates

MRNA Financial Metrics

Revenue
$1.9B
Net Income
$-2.8B
EPS (Diluted)
$-7.26
Free Cash Flow
$-2.1B
Total Assets
$12.3B
Cash Position
$2.6B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Strong liquidity with a 3.29x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.

MRNA Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin -158.1%
Net Margin -145.2%
ROE -32.6%
ROA -22.9%
FCF Margin -106.2%

MRNA vs Healthcare Sector

How Moderna, Inc. compares to Healthcare sector averages

Net Margin
MRNA -145.2%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
MRNA Sector
ROE
MRNA -32.6%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
MRNA Sector
Current Ratio
MRNA 3.3x
vs
Sector Avg 2.0x
MRNA Sector
Debt/Equity
MRNA 0.1x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
MRNA Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is MRNA Overvalued or Undervalued?

Based on fundamental analysis, Moderna, Inc. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Healthcare sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
-32.6%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
-145.2%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.07x
Sector avg: 0.6x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

MRNA Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
3.29x
Quick Ratio
3.22x
Debt/Equity
0.07x
Debt/Assets
29.9%
Interest Coverage
N/A
Long-term Debt
$590.0M

MRNA 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis

MRNA 5-year financial data: Year 2019: Revenue $60.2M, Net Income N/A, EPS N/A. Year 2023: Revenue $19.3B, Net Income $12.2B, EPS $28.29. Year 2024: Revenue $19.3B, Net Income $8.4B, EPS $20.12. Year 2025: Revenue $6.8B, Net Income -$4.7B, EPS $-12.33.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Moderna, Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 11,274% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $-12.33 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

MRNA Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-106.2%
Free cash flow / Revenue

MRNA Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Moderna, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $1.0B $13.0M $0.03
Q2 2025 $142.0M -$825.0M $-2.13
Q1 2025 $108.0M -$971.0M $-2.52
Q3 2024 $1.8B $13.0M $0.03
Q2 2024 $241.0M -$1.3B $-3.33
Q1 2024 $167.0M $79.0M $0.19
Q3 2023 $1.8B $1.0B $2.53
Q3 2019 $17.0M -$80.3M N/A

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

MRNA Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
-$1.9B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$2.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$192.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

MRNA SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Moderna, Inc. (CIK: 0001682852)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 16, 2026 DEF 14A mrna-20260316.htm View →
Mar 6, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 6, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 5, 2026 8-K mrna-20260303.htm View →
Mar 3, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about MRNA

What is the AI rating for MRNA?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has an AI rating of SELL with 85% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are MRNA's key strengths?

Claude: Strong liquidity position with $2.6B cash and 3.29x current ratio provides 12+ months operating runway. Manageable leverage with 0.07x debt-to-equity ratio limits financial distress risk in near-term.

What are the risks of investing in MRNA?

Claude: Operating losses of $3.1B with negative 158.1% operating margin indicate core business is unprofitable and unsustainable. Revenue declined 39.9% YoY suggesting loss of market demand, potentially from COVID vaccine revenue normalization.

What is MRNA's revenue and growth?

Moderna, Inc. reported revenue of $1.9B.

Does MRNA pay dividends?

Moderna, Inc. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find MRNA SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Moderna, Inc. (CIK: 0001682852) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is MRNA's EPS?

Moderna, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $-7.26.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is MRNA a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Moderna, Inc. has a SELL rating with 85% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is MRNA stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for MRNA: ROE of -32.6% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of -145.2% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy MRNA stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Moderna, Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is MRNA's free cash flow?

Moderna, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $-1.9B, with capital expenditures of $192.0M. FCF margin is -106.2%.

How does MRNA compare to other Healthcare stocks?

Vs Healthcare sector averages: Net margin -145.2% (avg: 12%), ROE -32.6% (avg: 15%), current ratio 3.29 (avg: 2).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 2, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI