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MGY Stock Analysis 2026 - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp AI Rating

MGY NYSE Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas DE CIK: 0001698990
Recently Updated • Analysis: Apr 1, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
STRONG BUY
85% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 MGY Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.3B
Net Margin: 24.8%
Free Cash Flow: $878.6M
Current Ratio: 1.54x
Debt/Equity: 0.20x
EPS: $0.24
AI Rating: STRONG BUY with 85% confidence

Is MGY a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis

Claude

Magnolia Oil & Gas demonstrates exceptional financial health with industry-leading profitability metrics, generating 67% free cash flow margins and maintaining fortress-like balance sheet strength with minimal leverage (0.20x debt/equity). The company's ability to generate substantial cash flow ($878.6M operating CF) while maintaining high operating margins (33.5%) and robust returns on equity (16.3%) indicates efficient capital allocation and operational excellence.

Why Buy MGY? Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Exceptional FCF generation with 67% FCF margin, providing significant capital allocation flexibility
  • + Strong balance sheet with 0.20x debt/equity ratio and $266.8M cash position providing financial stability
  • + High profitability metrics: 33.5% operating margin, 24.8% net margin, and 16.3% ROE demonstrate operational efficiency
  • + Outstanding interest coverage ratio of 59.2x indicates minimal financial distress risk
  • + Positive net income growth (+1.4% YoY) despite flat revenue, suggesting margin expansion and cost discipline
  • + Robust liquidity with 1.54x current ratio and quick ratio, supporting operational continuity

MGY Investment Risks to Consider

Claude
  • ! Revenue decline of 0.3% YoY indicates potential commodity price headwinds or production challenges in the cyclical energy sector
  • ! Heavy dependence on commodity prices (crude oil and natural gas) creates earnings volatility and forecasting uncertainty
  • ! Significant insider activity with 14 Form 4 filings in 90 days warrants monitoring for potential insider knowledge of adverse developments
  • ! Capital expenditure data not disclosed, limiting assessment of growth investment strategy and asset replacement pace
  • ! Absence of gross profit data prevents evaluation of production cost trends and upstream operational efficiency

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Revenue growth trajectory and commodity price sensitivity
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability and free cash flow conversion rate
  • * Debt/equity ratio and long-term debt trends relative to cash generation
  • * Capital expenditure levels and reserve replacement ratios
  • * Net margin trends and cost management effectiveness

MGY Financial Metrics

Revenue
$1.3B
Net Income
$325.3M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.24
Free Cash Flow
$878.6M
Total Assets
$2.9B
Cash Position
$266.8M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 67.0% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments.

MGY Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 33.5%
Net Margin 24.8%
ROE 16.3%
ROA 11.2%
FCF Margin 67.0%

MGY vs Energy Sector

How Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp compares to Energy sector averages

Net Margin
MGY 24.8%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
MGY Sector
ROE
MGY 16.3%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
MGY Sector
Current Ratio
MGY 1.5x
vs
Sector Avg 1.3x
MGY Sector
Debt/Equity
MGY 0.2x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
MGY Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is MGY Overvalued or Undervalued?

Based on fundamental analysis, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp appears fundamentally strong relative to the Energy sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
16.3%
Sector avg: 14%
Net Profit Margin
24.8%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.20x
Sector avg: 0.6x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

MGY Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.54x
Quick Ratio
1.54x
Debt/Equity
0.20x
Debt/Assets
1.2%
Interest Coverage
59.22x
Long-term Debt
$393.3M

MGY 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis

MGY 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $1.1B, Net Income $50.2M, EPS N/A. Year 2022: Revenue $1.7B, Net Income -$1.2B, EPS N/A. Year 2023: Revenue $1.7B, Net Income $417.3M, EPS N/A. Year 2024: Revenue $1.7B, Net Income $893.8M, EPS N/A. Year 2025: Revenue $1.3B, Net Income $388.3M, EPS N/A.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp's revenue has grown significantly by 22% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $0.25 reflects profitable operations.

MGY Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
67.0%
Free cash flow / Revenue

MGY Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $324.9M $75.5M N/A
Q2 2025 $319.0M $78.1M N/A
Q1 2025 $319.4M $85.1M N/A
Q3 2024 $315.7M $99.8M N/A
Q2 2024 $280.3M $91.5M N/A
Q1 2024 $308.4M $85.1M N/A
Q3 2023 $315.7M $102.0M N/A
Q2 2023 $280.3M $91.5M N/A

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

MGY Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$878.6M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$52.4M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Dividends Paid
$113.1M
Returned to shareholders

MGY SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (CIK: 0001698990)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 31, 2026 4 xslF345X06/form4-03312026_080304.xml View →
Mar 24, 2026 DEF 14A mgy-20260508xdef14a.htm View →
Mar 11, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4-03112026_080321.xml View →
Mar 11, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4-03112026_080310.xml View →
Mar 11, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4-03112026_080304.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about MGY

What is the AI rating for MGY?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) has an AI rating of STRONG BUY with 85% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are MGY's key strengths?

Claude: Exceptional FCF generation with 67% FCF margin, providing significant capital allocation flexibility. Strong balance sheet with 0.20x debt/equity ratio and $266.8M cash position providing financial stability.

What are the risks of investing in MGY?

Claude: Revenue decline of 0.3% YoY indicates potential commodity price headwinds or production challenges in the cyclical energy sector. Heavy dependence on commodity prices (crude oil and natural gas) creates earnings volatility and forecasting uncertainty.

What is MGY's revenue and growth?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp reported revenue of $1.3B.

Does MGY pay dividends?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp pays dividends, with $113.1M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find MGY SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (CIK: 0001698990) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is MGY's EPS?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp has a diluted EPS of $0.24.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is MGY a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp has a STRONG BUY rating with 85% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.

Is MGY stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for MGY: ROE of 16.3% (sector avg: 14%), net margin of 24.8% (sector avg: 12%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.

Should I buy MGY stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp a combined STRONG BUY rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is MGY's free cash flow?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp's operating cash flow is $878.6M, with capital expenditures of N/A. FCF margin is 67.0%.

How does MGY compare to other Energy stocks?

Vs Energy sector averages: Net margin 24.8% (avg: 12%), ROE 16.3% (avg: 14%), current ratio 1.54 (avg: 1.3).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 1, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI