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ESRT Stock Analysis 2026 - Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. AI Rating

ESRT NYSE Real Estate Investment Trusts MD CIK: 0001541401
Recently Updated • Analysis: Mar 24, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
SELL
72% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 ESRT Key Takeaways

Revenue: $768.3M
Net Margin: 5.6%
Free Cash Flow: $-10.8M
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 2.25x
EPS: $0.25
AI Rating: SELL with 72% confidence

Is ESRT a Good Investment? Thesis Analysis

Claude

Empire State Realty Trust demonstrates concerning operational fundamentals with sharply declining profitability (net income down 40.5% YoY) and negative free cash flow despite modest revenue stability. The combination of high leverage (2.25x debt-to-equity), weak returns on equity/assets, and capital expenditures exceeding operating cash flow signals operational stress and limited financial flexibility for a REIT.

Why Buy ESRT? Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Stable revenue generation with minimal YoY decline (0.2%) demonstrating resilient tenant base
  • + Adequate interest coverage ratio of 5.4x provides debt service capacity
  • + Maintains reasonable liquidity with $132.7M cash reserves despite negative FCF

ESRT Investment Risks to Consider

Claude
  • ! Severe profitability deterioration with net income declining 40.5% YoY and diluted EPS down 10.7%, suggesting operational challenges
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$10.8M indicates capital expenditures ($259.9M) exceed operating cash generation ($249.1M), unsustainable for REIT dividend distributions
  • ! High leverage at 2.25x debt-to-equity with $2.4B long-term debt limits financial flexibility and refinancing options in adverse rate environment
  • ! Weak returns on equity (4.1%) and assets (1.0%) indicate inefficient capital deployment and low shareholder value generation

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating cash flow trend and capital expenditure discipline to achieve positive FCF
  • * Net income and operating margin stability in next reporting period to confirm if 40.5% decline is cyclical or structural
  • * Debt reduction trajectory and refinancing needs given $2.4B maturity schedule
  • * Occupancy rates and tenant credit quality to assess underlying portfolio health

ESRT Financial Metrics

Revenue
$768.3M
Net Income
$43.4M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.25
Free Cash Flow
$-10.8M
Total Assets
$4.5B
Cash Position
$132.7M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

ESRT Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 17.7%
Net Margin 5.6%
ROE 4.1%
ROA 1.0%
FCF Margin -1.4%

ESRT vs Default Sector

How Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. compares to Default sector averages

Net Margin
ESRT 5.6%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
ESRT Sector
ROE
ESRT 4.1%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
ESRT Sector
Current Ratio
ESRT 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
ESRT Sector
Debt/Equity
ESRT 2.3x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
ESRT Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is ESRT Overvalued or Undervalued?

Based on fundamental analysis, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Default sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
4.1%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
5.6%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
2.25x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

ESRT Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
2.25x
Debt/Assets
59.2%
Interest Coverage
5.40x
Long-term Debt
$2.4B

ESRT 5-Year Financial Trend & Growth Analysis

ESRT 5-year financial data: Year 2024: Revenue $766.8M, Net Income $63.2M, EPS $0.22. Year 2025: Revenue $766.8M, Net Income $84.4M, EPS $0.30.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s revenue has shown modest growth of 0% over the 5-year period. The most recent EPS of $0.30 reflects profitable operations.

ESRT Growth Metrics (YoY)

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-1.4%
Free cash flow / Revenue

ESRT Quarterly Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $197.3M $13.6M $0.05
Q2 2025 $189.2M $11.4M $0.04
Q1 2025 $179.6M $10.2M $0.03

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

ESRT Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$249.1M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$8.1M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$259.9M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$23.7M
Returned to shareholders

ESRT SEC 10-K & 10-Q Filing Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (CIK: 0001541401)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773791132.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773790630.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773790296.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773790119.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773789935.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about ESRT

What is the AI rating for ESRT?

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) has an AI rating of SELL with 72% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are ESRT's key strengths?

Claude: Stable revenue generation with minimal YoY decline (0.2%) demonstrating resilient tenant base. Adequate interest coverage ratio of 5.4x provides debt service capacity.

What are the risks of investing in ESRT?

Claude: Severe profitability deterioration with net income declining 40.5% YoY and diluted EPS down 10.7%, suggesting operational challenges. Negative free cash flow of -$10.8M indicates capital expenditures ($259.9M) exceed operating cash generation ($249.1M), unsustainable for REIT dividend distributions.

What is ESRT's revenue and growth?

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. reported revenue of $768.3M.

Does ESRT pay dividends?

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. pays dividends, with $23.7M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find ESRT SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (CIK: 0001541401) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is ESRT's EPS?

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $0.25.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is ESRT a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in March 2026, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. has a SELL rating with 72% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is ESRT stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for ESRT: ROE of 4.1% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 5.6% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy ESRT stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is ESRT's free cash flow?

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $249.1M, with capital expenditures of $259.9M. FCF margin is -1.4%.

How does ESRT compare to other Default stocks?

Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 5.6% (avg: 12%), ROE 4.1% (avg: 15%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.8).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 24, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI